Archive for January, 2014

Weekly wrap of STI
Singapore shares tracked losses and heading for their biggest weekly loss in more than 3-1/2 months, Index slipped after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data raised concerns over the economy.

Week starts with flat node and initially traded in very narrow and same range below 50 day MA level, and mid of the week STI crossed its support level and badly fell 3100 mark. STI was opened @ 3137.26 and then it made a high of 3142.05 , and faced resistance at that level and fell down , took support at 3071.28 and finally closed at 3075.99 with loss of 71.34 points down by 2.27% wow basis.

Macroeconomic factors:

  • Singapore inflation eased at averaged 2.4 % for the whole of 2013, “sharply lower” than the 4.6 per cent in 2012, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a joint statement.
  • Singapore 4Q Private-Home Prices Fall 0.9% on Qtr Vs +0.4% in 3Q.
  • Singapore’s manufacturing sector expanded by a surprising 6.2%in December compared to a year ago, as a 22.2% jump in electronics output helped to offset a 14.9 % contraction in the biomedical manufacturing cluster. Excluding the volatile biomedical sector, industrial production would have grown an even stronger 12.1% year-on-year.
  • Singapore’s private home prices fall first time since Q1 2012, down 0.9% in Q4
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3
3060 3030 3010 3115 3135 3150
STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN 3137.26
HIGH 3142.05
LOW 3071.28
CLOSE 3075.99
CHANGE (In Points) -71.34
% CHANGE -2.27%
Weekly Technical view on STI
 Market Forecast for week ahead
STI faced tremendous resistance at its 3140-45 mark this week, index didn’t even crossed its 50 week MA and fell badly below 3115 mark and crossed 3100.

STI formed long black candle which is highly bearish candlestick pattern. This is a single and strong candle which denotes more bearishness. It visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears.
For the coming week we can expect some more downward if STI will continue to sustain below 3100 and next level for bearish move will be 3050-3015.
STI Resistance
STI having Resistance @ 3115 and above this level it may take resistance from 3135-3150 levels.
STI Support

STI having nearest support @ 3060 below this 3030-3010 will be the support area for market.
Technical Indicators:
Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are moving down.
Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 27th January 2014
Company Name Type Expiry Date Record Date Date Paid/Payable Particulars
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 27 Feb 2014 010713 – 311213 SGD 0.00269 TAX EXEMPT
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 27 Feb 2014 010713 – 311213 SGD 0.02814
ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 27 Feb 2014 010713 – 311213 SGD 0.00615 LESS TAX
CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 25 Feb 2014 011013 – 311213 SGD 0.0003
CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 25 Feb 2014 011013 – 311213 SGD 0.02107 LESS TAX
FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 28 Feb 2014 011013 – 311213 SGD 0.025 LESS TAX
JAYA HOLDINGS LTD DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 12 Feb 2014 SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX
MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 06 Mar 2014 1OCT-31DEC, DRP SGD 0.0014
MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST DIVIDEND 27 Jan 2014 29 Jan 2014 06 Mar 2014 1OCT-31DEC, DRP SGD 0.0237 LESS TAX
OSIM Full Year Results
Chosen Half Year Results
China Essen 3rd Quarter Results
Chew’s Gp AGM
Keong Hong AGM
F & N AGM & EGM
China Fish AGM & EGM
Marco Polo AGM & EGM
Pac Andes SGM & AGM
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The US dollar had an fine week, winning against currencies across the board, with the Aussie and the loonie suffering the biggest losses.  German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Rate decision in Japan and the UK as well as US Unemployment Claims and housing data are the main events on our calendar. Let’s have an approach on the main market-movers for this week.
The US manufacturing sector registered strong performance with a remarkable rise in Empire Manufacturing. Together with a rise in retail sales and solid inflation numbers, the US dollar left the disappointing NFP behind and enjoyed gains. The pound managed to give a fight to the dollar thanks to superb retail sales, but the rest were on the defensive. The Canadian dollar reached a new four year low against the greenback, and the Aussie collapsed to new 3 year lows after a terrible jobs report. Even the “Teflon” euro eventually depreciated. Volatility continues to provide opportunities.
UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of jobless claims in the UK fell by 36,700 in November to 1.27 million, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in October, to its lowest rate since 2009. Prime Minister David Cameron remarked that the plan is working, but there is still much work to be done. The workforce should be larger in order to provide solid economic recovery. A further decline of 32,300 jobless claims is forecasted while unemployment is expected to decline to 7.3%.
Source Office for National Statistics (latest release)
Measures Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 19, 2014
Why Traders
Care
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called ILO Unemployment Rate, Jobless Rate;

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, pushing the four week average by 13,500 to 335,000. The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits is expected to decline since a special federal program expired last month and is starting to affect recipients. Nevertheless, the number of new claims stabilized near pre-recession levels, indicating a solid recovery in the US economy. Jobless claims are expected to increase to 331,000.

Source Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release Jan 30, 2014
FF Notes This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders
Care
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. U.S. home sales declined sharply in November to an annual rate of 4.90 million units, the lowest level in nearly a year, due to an increase in interest rates. This drop suggests the housing market is losing its growth momentum. The Fed tapering worsened the situation further as well as the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s plan to reduce the maximum size of mortgages which can be bought by taxpayer which is expected to have its toll on the housing sector. A rise to 4.99 million units is expected now. 

Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 21, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called Home Resales;
Weekly wrap of STI:
STI were struggling to cross its previous week high but can’t able to cross that level and traded in a same range however closed down from opening.
Week starts with higher opening @ 3150.74 levels and then it fell down and made week low at 3115.80 below 3120 support level. After taking support on lower levels it recovers and made high of 3155.89 and then closed at 3147.33 with gain of 3.51 points up by 0.11% wow basis.
Macroeconomic factors:
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) beat expectations to grow 6 % year-on-year in December, turning around from a revised 8.9 % fall in November to stage its strongest rise in more than a year.
Month-on-month, the NODX also rose a seasonally-adjusted 9.2 % in December, reversing November’s 4.2% contraction. This too, beat the median forecast of 2.8%.
Market Forecast for week ahead:
  • STI faced tremendous resistance at its 3155 level this week, didn’t crossed this high. Faced selling pressure at higher levels and crossed support level.
  • STI formed candlestick pattern called Tweezers top, where 2 consecutive candles shares a same level of High and cant able to cross this high. Here in STI faced resistance @ 3153-3155 mark from last 2 weeks and cant able to sustain above this. The Tweezers Top reversal pattern is extremely helpful because it visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears.
  • For the coming week we can expect some more upward move if it will maintain above 3155 levels than it could touch 3190-3220 mark and on the other side if STI crossed its 3120 mark then we will see more downside movement.
STI Resistance:
  • STI having Resistance @ 3155 and above this level it may take resistance from 3175-3190 levels.
STI Support:
  • STI having nearest support @ 3120 below this 2995-2965 will be the support area for market.
Technical Indicators:
Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are recovering.
S1 S2 S3 R 1 R 2 R 3
3020 2995 2965 3155 3175 3190
STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN 3150.74
HIGH 3155.89
LOW 3115.80
CLOSE 3147.33
CHANGE (In Points) +3.51
% CHANGE +0.11%
Weekly Technical view on STI
GOLD
Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.
 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.
Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week
Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1235 1231 1245 1254
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
 
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.
Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.
The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.
Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.
The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.93 19.81 20.26 20.49
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
  
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.in December.
Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3241 3.3058 3.3651 3.3878
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday’s low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December. Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation’s factories will hike demand for energy.
Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.
Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 93.49 92.45 94.53 95.10
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7:00pm Building Permits 1.01M 1.01M STRONG
8:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.5 83.47 STRONG
8:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.93M 3.97M STRONG
Building Permits
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders
Care
It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Source University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders
Care
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
JOLTS Job Openings
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes It’s released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;

Market Review: STI recovers from its yesterday’s losses and closed with good recovery above 3135 level.
Technical view on STI 

STI Day Performance
Open
3131.33
High
3146.77
Low
3131.33
Close
3143.25
Change(Points)
+19.50
% Change
+0.62%
Volume
3423.3M
Rise
249
Fall
137
Unch
403
 
  Market forecast:
STI opens with gap up @ 3131 level above its yesterday’s close, the gap window made by yesterdays close and todays open of almost 10 points.
Today STI formed a candlestick pattern called belt hold, which is a long white candle who does not have lower shadow but having a small upper shadow it opens low and closed near to day high as formed a small upper shadow. Belt Hold candle is a single candle which is highly bullish candlestick pattern.
For the coming days STI have to maintain above its 3120-3140 mark, if STI maintain this level then we can upside move soon, on the other side if it would not be able to maintain this than index can lose more.
STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1
3120
Support 2
3105
Support 3
3090
Resistance 1
3155
Resistance 2
3175
Resistance 3
3195
 Support:
STI having immediate support @ 3120 level and below this level it can take support @3105-3090 will be the support zone for STI.
Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3155 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3175-3195
 Technical indicators:
Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning down.
 
Top 5 Gainers
Scrip Name CMP %change
Jardine C&C
39.4
4.84
JSH 500US$
34
2.75
JMH 400US$
55.87
2.53
CapitaMall
1.88
1.35
SGX
7.12
1.28
 
Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name CMP %change
SIA Engg
4.96
-0.6
ComfortDelGro
1.975
-0.5
StarHub
4.22
-0.47
GLP
2.94
-0.34
ST Engg
3.86
-0.26
 IMPORTANT FACTORS:
Home-buying sentiment turns extra cautious. According to Colliers International, overall private residential property prices are expected to at most slip by 5% in 2014, following 2013’s moderated 1.2% increase.
Corporate Action as on 16th January 2014
Company Name Type Expiry Date Record Date Date
Paid/Payable
Particulars
Westminster EGM        
AIMSAMPI Reit EGM        
Stock for 16th January 2013:
HPH TRUST US$: stock is taking resistance @ 0.680 mark from 8 weeks this level is 50 day MA mark. If this will cross 0.68 marks then it will touch 0.750-0.800 in coming days.
HPH TRUST US$ is in consolidation phrase after taking support at lower levels so indicators are already in bullish zone.

SILVER
Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.97/20.02, which was also the day’s low. It followed gold to a high of 20.41/20.46 before concluding the day at 20.36/20.41.
Silver closed higher today for the third session in a row, at 20.41, but has yet to break its sideways range. Resistance is at the range high at 20.51. Support is at the December 31 low of 18.83. 
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower for the third consecutive session, at current 61.43. The ratio remains in an uptrend since September 2013, but is poised to test that uptrend which currently comes in around 60.90. Generally speaking, a declining gold-silver ratio is bullish for the metals (i.e., silver should outperform gold in an uptrend). We are closely watching the uptrend line for a clear breach.
 Technical Levels

  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 20.25 20.05 20.50 20.90CRUDE
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
 
GOLD
Gold moved marginally lower overnight to open at the session low of 1244.25/1245.25. Following surprisingly weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday, the metal drew buying interest today against a weaker dollar to post a high of 1253.00/1254.00 amidst diminishing concerns that the Fed will speed up tapering of its bond-buying program. It concluded the day at 1251.50/1252.50.
Gold closed higher today at 1252, breaking up through the previous recent high at 1248. Positive momentum in gold now exceeds negative momentum on the daily chart, and this is good news for the metal. There is an uptrend in the daily chart providing support; which currently comes in at 1231. Gold has made a successive higher low and now a higher high – taking out the December high at 1268 would be a bullish signal.
 Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1248 1232 1258 1267
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
COPPER
Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of its widespread uses across industries. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. On the Comexdivision of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.323 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.55%. Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.322 a pound and USD3.367 a pound.
The March contract ended Friday’s session up 1.29% to settle at USD3.341 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.289 a pound, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD3.377 a pound, the high from January 8. The U.S. economy added just 74,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs.Copper futures fell on Monday, after disappointing U.S. jobs data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery.
The disappointing data cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The central bank cited a stronger labor market in its decision to taper its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December to USD75 billion-a-month.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3270 3.3030 3.3550 3.3750
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded flat at USD92.03 a barrel up 0.03% during Asia morning trade. On Monday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD91.74 a barrel and a high of USD92.03 a barrel.
Talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement on a six-month deal that will limit advancements in Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran starting Jan. 20.
In November, Iran pledged to eliminate its stocks of 20% enriched uranium within six months and limit the enrichment of uranium to 5%.
Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market over the past two years.
Soft U.S. jobs numbers released Friday also pressured prices lower.
Crude oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday during Asian trading hours as markets digested the weekend reports that Iran has agreed on a multilateral plan that would curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in a deal that could allow it to resume exports and add to global supply.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 91.30 91.00 92.00 92.50
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4% STRONG
7:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.2% STRONG
7:00pm Import Prices m/m -0.6% 0.3% MEDIUM000
8:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.7% 0.4% MEDIUM
11:15pm FOMC Member Plosser Speak     MEDIUM
11:50pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks     MEDIUM
Core Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called Retail Sales Ex Autos;
Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders
Care
It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called Advance Retail Sales;
Import Prices m/m
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics(latest release)
Measures Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders
Care
It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called Import Price Index;

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1235.00/1236.00. Shortly after open, it touched a low of 1227.25/1228.25 before surging to the day’s high of 1248.50/1249.50 on dollar weakness following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data with non-farm payrolls adding a meagre 74k jobs in December against the 196k forecasted by economists. The metal closed the day at 1247.00/1248.00.
Gold closed higher this week at 1247, the third up-week in a row. While the test of the major low at 1180 was encouraging last week, it is too early to call an end to the strong downtrend that has been in place since the high of 1921 in 2011. 
The 50% retracement of the rally from 2008 to 2011 provides resistance; this is at 1301. There is strong support at the 1180 low. We are inclined to think that this is simply a correction; and that we will retest the 1180 low and achieve the technical target of 1155 (61.8% retracement of the long-term rally). We would be stopped out of this view should gold rally past 1416, the last major high.
Gold rose after disappointing U.S. jobs data stirred speculation Fed will take a gradual approach to tapering its bond-buying stimulus this year.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 74,000 in December, the smallest increase since January 2011, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent
Dollar weakened fueling expectations for the Federal Reserve to trim its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program at a slower pace than once expected.
Technical Levels

  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1232 1218 1254 1262

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.76/19.81. It briefly touched a low of 19.65/19.70 before reaching a high of 20.24/20.29 on the back of gold prior to concluding the session at 20.21/20.26.
Silver closed unchanged this week at 20.21 and has been trading sideways for the past six weeks. There is resistance from a downtrend that has been in place since August, which currently comes in at 20.85. Resistance from the larger downtrend, in place since the 2011 high of 49.79, comes in at 23.63. The trend remains bearish.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 61.83. Support from the uptrend currently comes in at 60.18. There is resistance at 67.46, the last major high. The trend remains bullish.
Silver rose as investors recalibrated their expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a much weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, well below expectations for a 196,000 increase.
Fed asset purchases tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus making prices an attractive hedge.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.76 19.31 20.46 20.71
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
COPPER
Comex, copper for March delivery jumped 1.29% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.341 a pound. Prices of the industrial metal lost 1.3% on Thursday to end at USD3.299 a pound. Comex copper prices shed 0.26% on the week.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3 percent in December on a month earlier propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases, but arrivals still fell 2.3 percent in 2013 due to lower term bookings of refined metal. China’s copper imports rose 29 percent to 441,291 tons last month from a year earlier, government data showed today. Total imports expanded 8.3 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent. Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai are at the lowest since November 2012, with LME inventories dropping for a 46th day.
Copper rose as traders bet that an apparent slowdown in U.S. hiring could tweak Fed’s monetary policy and increase the appeal of industrial commodities.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3% in December propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases
Data showed China’s export growth weakened in December–raising concerns about metal demand if economic growth isn’t sustained.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3051 3.2688 3.3621 3.3828
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.
Crude oil pricecs rose during Asian trading on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fanned speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale down its bond-buying program at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
Crudeoil settled flat recovering from lows on reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield stoked supply concerns.
China’s crude oil imports rose 13 percent in December from a year ago to a record 6.31 million barrels per day as two big refineries reopened.
 Crude demand for this year could rebound slightly as new refineries open, though growth may be capped by a lack of momentum in the broader economy.
 Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 92.00 91.30 93.40 94.08
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2