Archive for January 17, 2014

Weekly wrap of STI:
STI were struggling to cross its previous week high but can’t able to cross that level and traded in a same range however closed down from opening.
Week starts with higher opening @ 3150.74 levels and then it fell down and made week low at 3115.80 below 3120 support level. After taking support on lower levels it recovers and made high of 3155.89 and then closed at 3147.33 with gain of 3.51 points up by 0.11% wow basis.
Macroeconomic factors:
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) beat expectations to grow 6 % year-on-year in December, turning around from a revised 8.9 % fall in November to stage its strongest rise in more than a year.
Month-on-month, the NODX also rose a seasonally-adjusted 9.2 % in December, reversing November’s 4.2% contraction. This too, beat the median forecast of 2.8%.
Market Forecast for week ahead:
  • STI faced tremendous resistance at its 3155 level this week, didn’t crossed this high. Faced selling pressure at higher levels and crossed support level.
  • STI formed candlestick pattern called Tweezers top, where 2 consecutive candles shares a same level of High and cant able to cross this high. Here in STI faced resistance @ 3153-3155 mark from last 2 weeks and cant able to sustain above this. The Tweezers Top reversal pattern is extremely helpful because it visually indicates a transfer of power and sentiment from the bulls and the bears.
  • For the coming week we can expect some more upward move if it will maintain above 3155 levels than it could touch 3190-3220 mark and on the other side if STI crossed its 3120 mark then we will see more downside movement.
STI Resistance:
  • STI having Resistance @ 3155 and above this level it may take resistance from 3175-3190 levels.
STI Support:
  • STI having nearest support @ 3120 below this 2995-2965 will be the support area for market.
Technical Indicators:
Technical indicators are in downtrend .MACD, RSI and CCI all are recovering.
S1 S2 S3 R 1 R 2 R 3
3020 2995 2965 3155 3175 3190
OPEN 3150.74
HIGH 3155.89
LOW 3115.80
CLOSE 3147.33
CHANGE (In Points) +3.51
% CHANGE +0.11%
Weekly Technical view on STI
Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.
 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.
Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week
Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1235 1231 1245 1254
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.
Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.
The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.
Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.
The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.93 19.81 20.26 20.49
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary December.
Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3241 3.3058 3.3651 3.3878
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday’s low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December. Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation’s factories will hike demand for energy.
Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.
Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 93.49 92.45 94.53 95.10
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
7:00pm Building Permits 1.01M 1.01M STRONG
8:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.5 83.47 STRONG
8:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.93M 3.97M STRONG
Building Permits
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders
It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Source University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
JOLTS Job Openings
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes It’s released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;