Archive for February, 2014

Market Review: 
Singapore equities recover inch today, after its previous day free fall. However STI closed below 3100 mark.
  STI Day Performance
Open
3085.54
High
3101.36
Low
3082.86
Close
3096.74
Change(Points)
+8.49
% Change
+0.28%
Volume
2634.6M
Rise
214
Fall
195
Unch
643
Market forecast:
  •  STI opened flat @ 3085.50 and then its made day low 3082.86 above then previous days lower level and finally closed near to day high @ 3096.74 level just below 3100 level.
  • STI formed a green candlestick as it traded higher side, and closed near to day high. This is a bullish sign.
  • STI currently traded above 50 & 20 day EMA level , so whenever it maintain above these level it will be in bullish zone.
 Support level:
STI having immediate support @ 3080 level and below this level it can take support @3060-3040 will be the support zone for STI.
 Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3105 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3120-3135
STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1
3080
Support 2
3060
Support 3
3040
Resistance 1
3105
Resistance 2
3120
Resistance 3
3135
Technical indicators: 
Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are trading in recovery mode, RSI is in oversold zone so we can expect recovery in it.
 Important Factor for today:-
  •  Allianz raised its dividend by almost a 5th after fourth-quarter net profit met expectations at 1.26 billion euros (US$1.72 billion), as a strong operating gain in property and casualty insurance offset declines elsewhere..
  • United Overseas Australia Ltd has achieved a $219.2 million operating profit for the financial year ended 31st December 2013. After taxation and non-controlling interests, the profit applicable to the members of the Company was $97.8 million, an increase of $15.8 million or 19.3% when compared with the 2012 profit result.
  • City Developments: 4Q13 Net Profit Down 11.4% to S$221 Million, Declared S$0.08 Final Dividend.
  • Yangzijiang acquisition Of Remaining 45.53% Stake In Jiangsu Runzhou Heavy Industry Co., For US$5.46 Million.
  • Yanlord FY 2013 Revenue Rises 9.5% to RMB11.28 Billion, Strong Pre-Sales Growth And Subsequent Recognition To Drive Future.
Top 5 Gainers
Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name
CMP
%change
Scrip Name
CMP
%change
GoldenAgr
0.565
4.63
THBEV
0.51
-1.92
Jardine C&C
38.09
2.92
HPH Trust US$
0.62
-1.59
SGX
6.94
1.31
Wilmar
3.47
-0.57
SembMar
4.08
1.24
JMH 400US$
55.3
-0.36
Genting SP
1.355
1.12
DBS
16.4
-0.3

COMEX Technical Analysis Overview

Posted: February 26, 2014 in Uncategorized

GOLD
Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1335.50/1336.50. It fell briefly to a low of 1333.50/1334.50 as U.S. equities opened at an all-time high after China’s Yuan depreciated to its lowest level in over three years. The metal then advanced to a high of 1343.00/1344.00 after disappointing U.S. data pointed to low consumer confidence that raised concerns about economic recovery; this coupled with worries about China’s economic slowdown and political crisis in emerging markets. It closed the day at 1342.00/1343.00. ImageGold closed higher today at 1343, taking out another Fibonacci resistance level at 1337. As was also noted yesterday, there is some small RSI divergence, however RSI is still moving higher at the current 73.52 level. We would want to see it take out the previous high of 75.57. In price, there are previous highs in the 1362 and 1375 areas, but we see the risk as a full retracement back to the 1433 high from August 2013. Only a move back below 1308 would change this view.
Gold gained after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and a lackluster gain in home prices fueled concerns over the pace of U.S. economic recovery.
U.S. home price gains slowed in December, according to a closely watched housing survey that underscored a loss of momentum in the housing recovery
Gold holdings at Turkey’s central bank fell by a hefty 31.171 tonnes in January, data from the International Monetary Fund showed.
SILVER
Silver retreated overnight to open at 21.82/21.87. It dropped to a low of 21.73/21.78 before recovering to post a high of 22.00/22.05. It concluded the session at 21.96/22.01.
Silver closed unchanged today at 21.96. The metal has been trading sideways for the past seven sessions. It has been unable to close above resistance in the 21.97 area, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. We remain bullish so long as the metal holds the 38.2% retracement level at 21.23. The next target is 22.71, the 61.8% retracement level. ImageThe gold-silver ratio is higher today at current 61.12, but has traded sideways for the past week. Having broken the uptrend last week, we still see the risk as a full retracement to the 57.09 low.
Silver prices ended with losses as pressure seen tracking weakness in crude oil and base metals prices.
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI showed U.S. home price gains slowed in December, underscoring a loss of momentum in the housing recovery
A spate of soft economic data from the United States and China since the start of the year has drawn investors back to bullion.
COPPER
A cooler property sector not only weighs on demand for copper as construction material, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.ImageOn the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery traded in a range between $3.215 a pound and $3.253 a pound.
Coppe prices last traded at $3.218 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.65%.
The May copper contract fell to $3.204 a pound on Monday, the lowest since February 11, before trimming losses to settle at $3.240 a pound, down 0.61%.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.204 a pound, the low from February 24 and resistance at $3.259 a pound, the high from February 24.
Data released Monday showed that average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 9.6% in January from a year earlier, easing from the previous month’s 9.9% increase.
It was the first slowdown in the rate of price increases since November 2012.
Meanwhile, market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
The U.S. is to release a closely-watched report on consumer confidence, as well as private sector data on house price inflation.
The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand.
Copper futures declined on Tuesday to re-approach the previous session’s two-week low, amid ongoing concerns that attempts by policymakers in Beijing to cool China’s property sector and rein in lending will reduce demand for the industrial metal.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.05 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.05%.
On Tuesday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $101.95 a barrel and a high of $102.09 a barrel and settled at $101.99 a barrel.ImageNymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 14, and resistance at $103.45 a barrel, Monday’s high.
Oil prices slid after the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index slipped to 78.1 in February from 79.4 in January, mainly due to concerns over general business conditions, jobs, and earnings.
Analysts were expecting the index to tick up to 80.0.
The present situation index rose to its highest level in almost six years, but the expectations index declined, indicating that while consumers believe the economy has improved they do not foresee further considerable improvement in the coming months.
Giving oil some support were expectations the Federal Reserve will very gradually taper its $65 billion monthly bond-buying program, which weakens the dollar by suppressing long-term borrowing costs to spur recovery.
Nymex crude oil prices were mixed between small gains and losses during Asian trade on Wednesday after a sustained decline overnight as the markets anticipated that a sluggish U.S. economy will demand less fuel and energy, while warmer weather forecasts too pushed prices lower.
Technical Levels

SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1336 1329 1347 1357
SILVER 21.74 21.53 22.10 22.45
COPPER 3.2335 3.2085 3.2845 3.3105
CRUDE 100.95 100.07 102.77 103.77

Market Review:
Singapore shares opened higher today, STI up by 11.86 points to 3116.30. Further the market changed and ended lower at 3103.62 slipping at 2.22 points down. Some 2.12 Billion shares were traded.

STI Day Performance

Open

3116.3

High

3121.29

Low

3101.51

Close

3103.62

Change(Points)

2.22

% Change

0.071

Volume

214.48M

Rise

197

Fall

203

Unch

646

Market forecast:

  • STI closed slightly lower today , however it closed above 3100 @ 3103.62. STI made day high above its 3113 level @ 3121.29. 
  • STI trading higher side and made long candle as its made day high above major resistance, this candle formed with good movement in index, this black long line signifies bears are rule bulls today and this is the major reason behind this bearish candle formation.
  • STI trading well above its 50 day EMA level and below 200 day EMA level and now its next resistance comes @ 3135-3145 level and we can see this level soon whenever STI will maintain above 3090 level.

Support level:
STI having immediate support @ 3090 level and below this level it can take support @3075-3060 will be the support zone for STI.
Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3115 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3130-3145

STRAITS TIME LEVELS

Support 1

3090

Support 2

3075

Support 3

3060

Resistance 1

3115

Resistance 2

3130

Resistance 3

3145

Technical indicators:
Technical indicators MACD trading above its bullish crossover in Daily chart , RSI crossed its centreline zone and trading @ 60.075 and CCI @ 125.76.
Important Factor for today:-

  •  PanUnited Corporation on Tuesday posted a 37 per cent rise in net profit attributable to equity holders to S$11.98 million for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2013, up from S$8.75 million a year ago.
  • Vard Holdings on Tuesday reported a net profit attributable to equity holders of NOK113 million (S$23.6 million) for its fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2013. This was more than four times its earnings a year ago.
  • Jaya holding updated on Tuesday that it would be selling its subsidiaries to Mermaid Marine an Australia based company for S$625Million
  • A financing agreement has been signed between the united overseas bank and Singapore Comp, Asiatech Energy to build a combined cycle gas fired power plant in Myanmar
  • Singapore is further expanding its LNG terminal with an additional fourth tank which will boost its regasification and storage capacity to at least 9 million tonnes per annum by 2017 – up from 6 million tpa currently.

Top 5 Gainers

Scrip Name

CMP

%change

UOL

6.02

2.03

Wilmar

3.48

2.65

GreatEast

18.11

0.44

UIC

3.17

1.92

LHT

0.19

43.93

Top 5 Losers

Scrip Name

CMP

%change

Jardine C&C

37.88

-1.22

JSH 500US$

32.42

-0.48

JMH 400US$

55.95

-0.35

SuperGroup

3.82

-0.08

SGX

6.90

-0.08

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 26th Feb 2014

Company Name

Type

Expiry Date

Record Date

Date Paid/Payable

Particulars

Tree Land

Ex-Dividend

 

28 Feb 2014

07 Mar 2014

 

ChinaAOil

Ex- Bonus

 

28 Feb 2014

 

 

Cosmosteel

Ex-Dividend

 

28 Feb 2014

14 Mar 2014

 

COMEX Report On Technical Analysis

Posted: February 25, 2014 in Uncategorized

GOLD
Gold advanced overnight to open at 133Image2.50/1333.50. It retreated to a low of 1328.25/1329.25 as investors gauged the pace of economic recovery in the U.S. while Chinese data showed a decline in the rise of home prices for the first time in over a year. The metal then surged to a four-month high of 1338.50/1339.50 tracking gains in U.S. equities buoyed by M&A activity as the S&P 500 reached an all-time high while the Nasdaq touched a 14-year high amidst a wide market rally. Thereafter, it was mostly range bound to finally close the day at 1337.00/1338.00.
Gold had a strong rally today, breaching resistance in the 1330’s from previous highs, and closing at 1337. Unfortunately there is some RSI divergence, as RSI failed to make a new high on the new price high. We will watch this development, but remain bullish so long as gold trades above support in the 1308 level. The next resistance is at 1337; today’s close, as this is also the 61.8% retracement of the Aug to Dec 2013 downtrend. The next resistance is at 1360-62, the highs from Oct 2013.
Gold gained as investors grew more anxious about economic and political uncertainty over Ukraine.
Weak U.S. manufacturing data and a slowdown in rise in home prices in China raised fresh concerns over the economies, drawing investors towards gold.
SPDR gold trust holding gained by by 3.30 tonnes i.e. 0.41% to 801.61 tonnes from 798.31 tonnes.

SILVER
Silver moved higher overnight to open at 22.00/22.05. It dropped to a low of 21.90/21.95 before climbing to a high of 22.15/22.20 as the 10-day MA moved above the 200-day MA, prior to concluding the session at 22.02/22.07.Image
Silver also closed higher at 22.02, stalling very close to resistance in the 21.97 level. This is the 50% retracement of the Aug to Dec 2013 downtrend. There is also bearish RSI divergence as noted with gold. However, we remain bullish so long as we hold 21.32, the 38.2% retracement of the same downtrend. The next resistance is at 22.71, the 61.8% retracement level.
The gold-silver ratio is trading slightly higher at 60.75. Since its big drop on Feb 14th through its uptrend support line, the ratio has been consolidating. We are bearish the ratio as long as it stays below this prior support line, which is currently at 62.10. The risk is for a full retracement to the 57.10 low from Sep 2013.
Silver rose as doubts over the U.S. economic recovery boosted the appeal of the precious metal.
The recent patch of soft U.S. economic data fuelled expectations that U.S. monetary policy will remain accommodative.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.12% i.e. 11.97 tonnes to 10159.49 tonnes from 10147.52 tonnes.

COPPER
A cooler property sector not only weighs on demand for copper as construction material, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.Image
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of $3.213 a pound, the weakest level since February 11.
Copper prices last traded at $3.230 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.95%. The March copper contract ended Friday’s session down 0.03% to settle at $3.260 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.202 a pound, the low from February 11 and resistance at $3.264 a pound, the high from February 21.
Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics earlier showed that average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 9.6% in January from a year earlier, easing from the previous month’s 9.9% increase.
It was the first slowdown in the rate of price increases since November 2012. The slight deceleration comes amid attempts by policymakers to cool the property sector and rein in lending.
Meanwhile, market players looked ahead to key U.S. data later in the week to further gauge the strength of the economy. The U.S. is to publish revised data on fourth quarter economic growth, while data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence will also be in focus.
The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand.
Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers significantly reduced their bearish bets in copper futures in the week ending February 18.
Copper futures fell 1% to hit a nine-day low on Monday, after data showed that Chinese home prices fell for the first time in 14 months in January.

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.61 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.16%.
On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $102.58 a barrel and a high of $102.87 a barrel to settle at $102.78 a barrel.Image
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $101.71 a barrel, Friday’s low, and resistance at $104.06 a barrel, the high from Oct. 8.
On Monday, market talk that inventories are set to fall at a widely-watched delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma sent oil prices rising.
In January, the Keystone XL pipeline linking Cushing, Oklahoma, to the U.S. Gulf Coast began making deliveries, which was to end bottlenecks and supply gluts in the U.S.
Forecasts for a powerful winter storm to trek across the U.S. this week as well as ongoing political instability in Libya, South Sudan and Venezuela also supported the commodity.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for April delivery were up 0.02% and trading at US$110.68 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at US$8.07 a barrel.
Nymex crude prices fell during Asian trading hours on Tuesday as the markets tried to balance the concerns of the slowdown in emerging economies with the strength of stock markets in the U.S. and conflicts in the Middle East.
Technical Levels

SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1326 1315 1344 1350
SILVER 21.65 21.25 22.31 22.57
COPPER 3.2370 3.2040 3.2920 3.3140
CRUDE 102.04 101.26 103.52 104.22

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7.30P.M S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 13.7% 13.3% MEDIUM
8.30P.M CB Consumer Confidence 80.7 80.2 STRONG

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

Source Standard & Poor’s (latest release)
Measures Change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;
Next Release Mar 25, 2014
FF Notes This is one of the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it’s the primary calculation for this indicator;
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Acro Expand Standard & Poor’s (S&P), Case-Shiller (CS), House Price Index (HPI);
Source Standard & Poor’s (latest release)

CB Consumer Confidence

Source The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed households;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release Mar 25, 2014
Why Traders
Care
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation;
Acro Expand The Conference Board (CB);

Comex Technical Analysis Report

Posted: February 24, 2014 in Uncategorized

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1324.00/1325.00. Shortly after open, it climbed to a high of 1326.00/1327.00 before dropping to a low of 1319.00/1320.00 as the dollar appreciated and global equities gained momentum following good corporate results despite U.S. data that pointed to a fall in existing home sales to its lowest level since Q3 2012. The metal recovered towards the end of the day to close near opening levels at 1323.00/1324.00.
Gold closed higher for the third week in a row, at 1324. The move from 1182 in December 2013 to fresh highs this week in the 1327 area is bullish. The move is confirmed by fresh highs in RSI, which has broken out of a sideways range and is currently at 54.81 on the weekly chart. Support is at 1301-1308 where we have Fibonacci convergence (1301 is the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend. 1308 is the 50% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013). Resistance is at the 1433 high from August 2013. We are bullish so long as gold trades above 1278-79.
SILVER
Silver retreated overnight to open at the session low of 21.60/21.65. Shortly after open, it posted a high of 21.76/21.81 before closing the day at 21.65/21.70.
Silver moved back higher today to the upper end of our one month range. The metal seems to have found support at the 23.6% Fibo at 21.28. Resistance is seen at 21.98, which is last week’s high and the 50% retracement level of the last down leg from 25.09 to 18.51. While the metal holds above 21.28 we see risk of another leg higher to the 61.8% retracement level at 22.70.
The gold-silver ratio remains heavy at current 60.63. The drop this month from 65.10 to 60.35 overhangs the market. Support is seen at 60.23 from the December 31st low. The 60.17 level represents the key 61.8% Fibo of our five-month up move from 57.12 to 65.10. Despite the technical support we see the risk of another leg lower to 59.00. Only a move back above 61.55 would shake the bearish bias.
Silver dropped as after investors continued to sell for profits, shrugging off a soft regional U.S. output report as weather-related setback that won’t alter monetary policy.
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended February 8 rose to 2.981 million from 2.944 million in the preceding week.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.68% i.e. 68.81 tonnes to 10081.70 tonnes from 10150.51 tonnes.
COPPER
Copper settled flat as concerns over growth in top consumer China weighed on the market, although a survey showing brisk U.S. manufacturing underpinned prices.
Chinese imports of refined copper surged around a quarter in January from the month before to their second-highest on record. Customs data on Friday showed that the world’s top consumer and producer of refined copper imported 397,459 tonnes of refined metal in January, compared to a record 406,937 tonnes in December 2011.
January imports rose 63.5 percent from a year ago and beat forecasts by traders and market who had anticipated lower arrivals in January as many factories close from the middle of that month due to the Lunar New Year holidays. Exports of refined copper stood at 25,935 tonnes in January versus 25,092 tonnes in the previous month.
In China, banks reportedly suspended financing business in property markets, and imposed strict control of total loans for housing construction and operation. In addition, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan indicated in the G20 meeting that China would strive to balance its GDP growth, structural reforms, and social stability. In the week ahead, market players will continue to pay close attention to U.S. economic data releases for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April rose to 0.12% at $102.50 a barrel.
During the previous session, Nymex oil prices traded between $102.27 a barrel and $102.53 a barrel and closed at $102.38 a barrel.
U.S. oil futures were likely to find support at $100.05 a barrel, the low from February 18 and resistance at $103.29 a barrel, the high from February 19.
On the week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, climbed 2.02%, the sixth consecutive weekly gain.
On Friday, oil prices weakened after a report showed that U.S. existing home sales fell by a larger-than-forecast 5.1% in January to hit an 18-month low.
This disappointing data came one day after the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index deteriorated to a 12-month low of minus 6.3 in February from January’s reading of 9.4.
The recent patch of soft U.S. economic data fuelled concerns that the recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year as inclement winter weather weighed on growth.
Meanwhile, forecasts for a thawing trend across the blizzard-weary U.S. Northeast over the next couple of days softened prices as well. Prices rallied to a four-month high earlier in the week amid speculation frigid weather conditions in the U.S. Northeast will boost demand for oil products, such as heating fuel.
In the week ahead, market players will continue to pay close attention to U.S. economic data releases for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
The U.S. is to publish revised data on fourth quarter economic growth, while data on durable goods orders and consumer confidence will also be in focus…
Technical Levels

 

SUPPORT 1

SUPPORT 2

RESISTANCE 1

RESISTANCE 2

GOLD

1318

1312

1329

1339

SILVER

21.57

21.37

21.97

22.37

COPPER

3.2758

3.2513

3.3003

3.3096

CRUDE

101.61

101.04

102.85

103.50

Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST

DATA

PRV

EXP

IMPACT

7.30P.M

Flash Services PMI

56.7

56.9

LOW

Existing Home Sales

Source

Market(latest release)

Measures

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry;

Usual Effect

Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

Frequency

Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;

Next Release

Mar 20, 2014

FF Notes

Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar – early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Nov 2013, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;

Why Traders
Care

It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;

Derived Via

Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

Acro Expand

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);

Weekly wrap of STI:
For the third week of February the STI still continues to be in uptrend & the trend seems to continue further as all the major resistance that we have forecasted in the last weekly report of 14 Feb 2014 has been broken positively for this week and our last weekly report hit accurately on our forecasted levels
As the uptrend start from 3048 the opening level at 17th Feb. and then the STI made the high of 3109.80 for this week and closed at 3099.93. For this week the market covered the movement of almost 65 points. Observing the candle & the chart formation the market has recovered from the downfall that came on 23 Jan 2014.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP

OPEN 3048.70
HIGH 3109.80
LOW 3044.50
CLOSE 3099.93
CHANGE (In Points) 61.22
% CHANGE 2.014%

Macroeconomic factors:

  • The Gross Domestic Production rate in Singapore was announced at 6.10% in the Q4 2013. The average growth rate for last 6 years was 5.56%
  • Singapore’s fourth-quarter home prices slid for the first time in almost two years to 72% to 565 units
  • Australia based Seek Ltd world’s largest online employment market place by revenue announced A$380.7million a 38% jump in turnover,
  • Singapore government proposed Trans boundary Haze Pollution Bills with a criminal penalty of up to S$300,000
  • Singapore Domestic wholesale trade increased 3.3% in Q4 Dec 2013, general wholesale trade sec made the largest growth of 32.7% for Q4 Dec 2013 On YOY basis.
  • 8.6% of growth in new business formation in Singapore for the Q4 Dec 2013, around 14,500 new businesses was formed in Singapore.
  • More over the week was full of results like Ezion Holding, Biosensors, Capitaland, etc that gave a good support to the recovery of the STI. Major sector supported by the volume were Service & Manufacturing.

Market Forecast for week ahead:
For continues 3rd week of winning strike, STI closed higher side with bullish outlook for coming week too.STI made week high above 3100 mark @ 3109.80 mark  just below its 20 week MA level of 3014.
STI formed a long white candle as Index move low to high, STI opens lower and then it continuously cross resistance levels one by one and now trading near to 3100 level and if it shows same movement in next week we will see major resistance @ 3015 level.
For coming week STI may remain upside whenever it traded above 3050 mark, its major resistance will come @ 3115-3145 level. Also Singapore budget declaration will effect on coming week on Singapore equities.
STI Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3115 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3145-3165
STI Support:
STI having immediate support @ 3070 level and below this level it can take support @3050-3020 will be the support zone for STI.

Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3
3070 3050 3020 3115 3145 3165

Technical Indicators:
Technical indicators MACD given its bullish crossover in Daily chart, RSI and CCI are trading in recovery mode, RSI is in oversold zone so we can expect recovery in it.
Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 24th Feb 2014

Company Name Type Expiry Date Record Date Date Paid/Payable Particulars
China Fish Ex-Dividend 26 Feb 2014 07 Mar 2014
Croesus RTr Ex-Dividend 26 Feb 2014 31 Mar 2014
Silverlake Ex-Dividend 26 Feb 2014 14 Mar 2014
Swing Media Ex-Dividend 26 Feb 2014

GOLD
Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1311.50/1312.50 following soft data out of China and France. The metal climbed to a high of 1317.50/1318.50 before dipping to a low of 1311.00/1312.00 as the dollar stabilized and U.S. equities rose following mixed U.S. economic data that showed a small drop in initial jobless claims. A weak Philly Fed number brought in fresh interest, leading the metal to a close of 1316.50/1317.50.
Gold has had a nice bounce higher today from 1308 to 1323. The overall price action appears to be a bullish wedge. The move starting February from 1239 to 1332 was very impulsive in nature; the pull back to 1308 corrective. Risk is for another run to the topside with a break of 1332 targeting last major high seen October 28th at 1361. Only a break of 1308 would yield a deeper correction to 1297 (23.6% of the 1185 to 1332 calendar year up move).
Gold slipped as the dollar firmed after minutes from a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting indicated support for continued tapering of its stimulus
Prices benefited after data showed factory activity in China fell to a seven-month low and a closely watched gauge of U.S. manufacturing sector fell sharply.
India’s plan to keep tax on gold imports at current levels could underpin sentiment in the physical market as it will lead to more smuggling.
SILVER
Silver retreated overnight to open at the session low of 21.60/21.65. Shortly after open, it posted a high of 21.76/21.81 before closing the day at 21.65/21.70.
Silver moved back higher today to the upper end of our one month range. The metal seems to have found support at the 23.6% Fibo at 21.28. Resistance is seen at 21.98, which is lastweek’s high and the 50% retracement level of the last down leg from 25.09 to 18.51. While the metal holds above 21.28 we see risk of another leg higher to the 61.8% retracement level at 22.70.
The gold-silver ratio remains heavy at current 60.63. The drop this month from 65.10 to 60.35 overhangs the market. Support is seen at 60.23 from the December 31st low. The 60.17 level represents the key 61.8% Fibo of our five-month up move from 57.12 to 65.10. Despite the technical support we see the risk of another leg lower to 59.00. Only a move back above 61.55 would shake the bearish bias.
Silver dropped as after investors continued to sell for profits, shrugging off a soft regional U.S. output report as weather-related setback that won’t alter monetary policy.
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended February 8 rose to 2.981 million from 2.944 million in the preceding week.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.68% i.e. 68.81 tonnes to 10081.70 tonnes from 10150.51 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between $3.257 a pound and $3.288 a pound.
Copper prices last traded at $3.268 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.55%. The March copper contract ended Wednesday’s session unchanged to settle at $3.285 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.253 a pound, the low from February 18 and resistance at USD3.302 a pound, the high from February 19.
Data released earlier showed that China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.3 in February from a final reading of 49.5 in January, remaining below the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction for a second month.
Copper traders consider shifts in the HSBC PMI an indicator of China’s copper demand, as the industrial metal is widely used by the sector.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Meanwhile, copper traders looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy and second-biggest consumer of the industrial metal.
Copper futures declined on Thursday, after data showed that manufacturing activity in China fell to a seven-month low in February, further suggesting that the world’s second-largest economy may be facing a slowdown.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.79 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.08%.
On Thursday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $102.80 a barrel and a high of $102.95 a barrel to settle at $102.84 a barrel.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 13, and resistance at $103.28 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index deteriorated to minus 6.3 in February from January’s reading of 9.4. Analysts had expected the index to inch down to 8.0 in February.
The soft numbers fueled concerns that U.S. recovery still faces headwinds made worse by rough winter weather, and the country may demand less fuel and energy going forward than previously anticipated.
Also on Thursday, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 3,000 to 336,000, slightly below expectations for a decline of 4,000.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in January, in line with forecasts. Consumer prices were 0.1% higher from a month earlier, also matching forecasts.
Core consumer prices, which are stripped of volatile food and energy components, were also up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis and 0.1% from the previous month.
Weekly supply data also watered down prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 973,000 barrels last week, less than market expectations for a gain of 2.01 million barrels.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 309,000 barrels, confounding expectations for a decline of 538,000 barrels.
Meanwhile inventories of distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 339,000 million barrels, far less than market calls for a loss of 1.89 million.
Nymex crude prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during morning Asian trade on Friday on falling demand and higher U.S. supplies.
Technical Levels

SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1310 1303 1324 1330
SILVER 21.42 21.16 21.92 22.42
COPPER 3.2578 3.2366 3.2943 3.3096
CRUDE 102.60 102.30 103.36 104.11

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
8.30P.M Existing Home Sales 4.87M 4.73M STRONG

Existing Home Sales

Source National Association of Realtors(latest release)
Measures Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called Home Resales;
Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)