Technical Analysis View of COMEX

Posted: March 4, 2014 in Uncategorized

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1346.00/1347.00 following mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It dipped briefly to a low of 1344.25/1345.25 before surging to a four-month high of 1354.25/1355.25 as oil and safe-haven currencies reported gains while global equities retreated in face of the impending crisis in Ukraine. The metal closed the day at 1350.00/1351.00.
Gold had a very strong close today, ending the session at 1351 and clearly trading through resistance in the 1337 area. This opens up a full retracement to the 1433 high from August 2013. Resistance is at the most recent high of 1361 from October 2013. There is support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 1310.
Gold gained as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia bolstered demand for assets perceived to be relatively safe, hitting riskier investments such as equities.
A recent series of weak U.S. data that showed how much a cold snap has hurt activity in US, coupled with signs of a growth slowdown in China, boosted gold prices
A U.S. Non farm payrolls report on Friday should give investors a further opportunity to gauge the country’s growth.
SILVER
Silver advanced overnight to open at 21.43/21.48. It dropped to a low of 21.39/21.44 before following gold to a high of 21.63/21.68 and then coming under selling pressure to close near opening levels at 21.48/21.53.
Silver had a small move higher today at 21.48, but is still in consolidation mode. The price action since the big up-move on February 14th has been disappointing. Support is at the 200-daymoving average of 20.98, followed by the top of the previous range, 20.64. Resistance is at the recent high of 22.17.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 63.07. It has will be key. Confirmation of today’s down move would open up the moved back into its previous uptrend after a false break lower in February. Uptrend support comes in at 63.07. We are neutral.
Silver rallied tracking gold prices as the chance of military conflict in Ukraine mounted following Russia’s seizing of control of the Crimean peninsula.
The Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.35% i.e. 35.89 tonnes to 10168.47 tonnes from 10204.36 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $3.160 a pound, the weakest since November 21.
Copper prices last traded at $3.169 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.6%. The May copper contract lost 0.42% on Friday to settle at $3.187 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.146 a pound, the low from November 21 and resistance at $3.212 a pound, the high from February 28.
Geopolitical tensions mounted over the weekend after Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Sunday that his country was “on the brink of disaster” after Russia’s parliament authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force in Ukraine.
Ukraine has put its forces on combat readiness and U.S. President Barack Obama warned Russia not to intervene. The U.S. is also considering imposing sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday.
Meanwhile, lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment.
Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since November on Monday, as tension in the Ukraine flared over the weekend and amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at 104.82 a barrel, down 0.10%, after hitting an overnight session low of $103.36 a barrel and a high of $105.22 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $2.13, or 2%, to $111.20 a barrel.
Russia, the world’s biggest oil producer, sent troops into Crimea, a peninsula in Ukraine. The move stoked fears that there could be a disruption in supply in both crude and refined oil products.
Also supporting crude, the Commerce Department on Monday reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Personal spending for December was revised down to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.4%.
The report added that personal income rose 0.3%, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a flat reading in December.
Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which is stripped of food and energy items, inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January, in line with expectations, after rising 0.1% in December.
The core PCE price index rose at an annualized rate of 1.2%, above forecasts for a 1.1% increase, after rising at a rate of 1.1% in December.

Technical Levels

  SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1335 1321 1360 1369
SILVER 21.28 21.12 21.64 21.84
COPPER 3.2030 3.1855 3.2425 3.2665
CRUDE 103.50 102.09 105.77 106.63

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
8.30P.M IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 44.9 45.6 LOW

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source TIPP(latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Apr 2, 2014
FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;
Acro Expand Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP);
Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s