COMEX: Technical Analysis View

Posted: March 10, 2014 in Uncategorized

GOLD
Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1351.00/1352.00. It moved to a high of 1351.25/1352.25 before declining quickly to a low of 1326.50/1327.50 alongside crude futures as the dollar strengthened while U.S. 10-Year Treasury prices fell sharply following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that supports further tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Thereafter, the metal recovered and traded within range to close the day at 1337.50/1338.50.
Gold closed higher this week at 1338, the fifth straight up-week (though last week was essentially unchanged). However, we were unable to close substantially through the resistance level at 1337.83, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013. Nevertheless, the uptrend is gaining momentum, with RSI (weekly) currently at 56.87. There is strong support from 1301 to 1308, which represents two 50% Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50% retracement of the long- last downtrend. After 1338, the next resistance level is 1361, the swing high from November 2013.
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at the session high of 21.38/21.43. It followed gold to a low of 20.74/20.79, prior to concluding the session at 20.89/20.94, which is close to the 100day moving average of 20.92.
Silver closed at 20.89, the second lower close in a row. There is a strong downtrend off the 2011 high that is acting as resistance; this currently comes in at 22.14. Support comes in at the bottom of the 2014 range at 19.00. Silver remains trapped within a sideways trend and we are currently neutral.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at the current 64.03 level. Support from the uptrend comes in at 61.54. We are bullish the ratio so long as the previous low at 59.92 holds, targeting a retracement back to the 2013 high of 67.47.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $3.231 a pound, the most since February 26.
Copper prices last traded at $3.222 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.25%.
The May copper contract rallied 1.34% on Tuesday to settle at $3.214 a pound, as investor demand for riskier assets improved amid easing tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.166 a pound, the low from March 4 and resistance at $3.239 a pound, the high from February 26.
China has set its gross domestic product growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, as widely expected, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5%, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday.
The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Keqiang, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country’s economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April US$102.37 a barrel, down 0.20%.
NYMEX crude for April settled up 1%, or $1.02 a barrel, to end Friday at $102.58 a barrel, falling $0.01 cent on the week.
Last week, an upbeat jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. economic data seen in the past few months and underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to gradually taper its bond-buying program.
Gains were limited as concerns over Chinese domestic bond defaults underlined worries over the health of the Asian nation’s economy.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase.
Imports rose 10.1%, compared to forecasts for an 8% increase. According to customs data, China’s February crude oil imports totaled 23.05 million metric tons, down 18.1% from January.
The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.
A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 2% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while producer price inflation declined 2%, compared to forecasts for a 1.9% drop.
The disappointing data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world’s second biggest oil consumer.
In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
Crude oil prices eased in early Asian trade Monday, but remain supported by events in the Ukraine where tension over moves by neighboring Russia, the world’s top oil producer, in the Crimean region have heightened concerns over supply..
Technical Levels

  SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1325 1312 1352 1365
SILVER 20.59 20.28 21.37 21.84
COPPER 3.1115 3.0665 3.2365 3.3165
CRUDE 101.79 100.45 103.13 103.69

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
4.45P.M FOMC Member Plosser Speaks     MEDIUM

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Description Due to participate in a panel discussion titled “Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism” at the Bank of France, in Paris;
Source Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Speaker Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes FOMC voting member 2008, 2011, and 2014;
Why Traders
Care
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
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