COMEX Trading Signals : Technical Analysis

Posted: May 26, 2014 in Uncategorized

GOLD
With rising equities in the US, gold prices trading below the $1300 mark forced prices further as bullions safe haven appeal has been reducing by rise in other asset class. Besides this, lack in physical demand also pulled back prices. According to the World Gold Council consumer gold demand in the world’s biggest buyer China fell 18% to 263.2 tonnes, with Chinese demand for gold coins and bars down 55% in Q1, offset only partially by a 10% rise in jewellery off take.
Coming to the investment demand, gold holdings at the world’s largest gold ETF, the SPDR gold trust has been continuously declining and in the week it has fallen from 782 tons to 776 tons indicating the demand is very much feeble for the underlying in the near term.
Forecast
We expect gold prices to trade lower as physical demand seems to be weak across global and Asian markets. Besides outflows from the SPDR continues to have negative influence on the investors exerting downside pressure on prices.
SILVER
Spot silver prices gained marginally in the last week taking flat cues from international gold prices. However, strong gains in Nickel prices by more than 3% also supported prices.
According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold futures and options and switched to a net short position in silver in the week to May 20. ETF Holdings of New York’s iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10,284.40 tonnes from previous business day.
Forecast
Silver is trading lower on COMEX today. We expect prices to trade lower on account of ETF selling and in hope of improving US economy. Also, the Fed’s minutes stated that bond buying programme will soon come to an end although the time frame was not decided when the Fed will do it. In addition, prices will continue to be under pressure
CRUDE
NYMEX crude oil prices traded on a positive note last week as Libya’s major western oilfields, El Sharara and El Feel remained shut for a week resulting sharp decline in National output at 210,000 barrels per day (bpd), far below the 1.4 million bpd produced until mid-2013. Besides this the conflict in Ukraine is supporting oil, as U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Francois Hollande warned Russia faced significant new sanctions if it continues provocative and destabilizing behaviour. Along with this China’s factory sector performance has been up to the mark in five months in May, and recovery in US housing market as U.S. home re-sales rose in April.
WTI Crude oil prices touched a weekly high of $104.5/bbl and closed at $104.35/bbl gaining by around 2.2% in the last week.
Forecast
On an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade sideways after its positive trend in last week. Upswing in violence in Libya, good economic data coming out of China and the US will support prices. Besides this the inventory withdrawal indicates the summer demand to enter from all quarters of US after memorial day.
TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1285 1280 1301 1306
SILVER 19.3 19.1 19.5 19.7
CRUDE 103.7 103 105 105.7

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

  • US Banks closed today on the observance of Memorial Day.
  • German Ifo Business Climate fell to 110.4-mark in month of May.
  • US New Home Sales increased by 26,000 to 433,000 in last month.

Data Update for 26th May 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
4:15am NZD High Trade Balance 534M 636M 935M
5:20am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
11:30am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 8.5 8.5 8.5
All Day GBP Bank Holiday
1:30pm EUR High ECB President Draghi Speaks
All Day USD Bank Holiday
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  1. […] COMEX Trading Signals : Technical Analysis […]

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