Archive for June, 2014

FOREX Signals for 30 June

Posted: June 30, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair had a positive session on Friday, breaking the top of the hammer for the Thursday session which of course is a strong buy signal. However, there is a significant amount of resistance just above going all the way to the 1.37 level at the very least, and as a result we are very hesitant to start buying now. We believe that ultimately this market should continue to stay in the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby making it a very difficult market to get overly excited about. We are on the sidelines.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, closing just below the 101.50 level. With that, it appears that the market is probably going to test the support area just below, and we will be looking for some type of supportive candle in order to go along for the short-term trade. We don’t think of that the market will break down here, simply because we have been so sideways for so long. Until we are told otherwise, we have to believe that this market simply stays in this consolidation area.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth on Friday, essentially going nowhere. However, the one thing that he did do was show the 1.70 level to be supportive yet again, and with that we believe that this market is in fact trying to wind itself up in order to make a move higher. That move higher should get us to the 1.75 level given enough time, thereby creating a market that can be bought on dips going forward. We have absolutely no interest in selling this pair, and we believe that there is a significant amount of support down at the 1.69 handle.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the session on Friday but gave back up most of the gains. With that, the market tested the 0.9450 level, an area that has been very resistant risk lately. Because of this, we feel that the market will more than likely continue to pull back time and time again until we finally can build up enough momentum to break out above the massive resistance. We believe that the resistance goes all the way to the 0.95 handle, so we are not buyers until we break that level or if we get some type of supportive candle below.
Currency Data for 30 June

Time Currency Impact Detail Forecast Previous
4:15am NZD Building Consents m/m 1.50%
5:20am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 0.90% -2.80%
6:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.30%
6:30am NZD High ANZ Business Confidence 53.5
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m 2.90%
7:00am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.40% 0.50%
10:30am JPY Housing Starts y/y -10.10% -3.30%
11:30am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.80% -0.90%
1:30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 0.70% 0.80%
EUR Private Loans y/y -1.70% -1.80%
2:00pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 2.5B 2.4B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.20% -0.20%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 62K 63K
2:30pm EUR High CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.60% 0.50%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.70% 0.70%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.20% -0.10%
6:00pm CAD High GDP m/m 0.20% 0.10%
7:15pm USD Chicago PMI 63.2 65.5
7:30pm USD High Pending Home Sales m/m 1.40% 0.40%
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Market Review for STI:
China’s stocks rose to its biggest gain in a week as renewed economic optimism showed that new equity sales will divert from existing shares. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 50.8. Singapore has expanded economic co-operation with Russia. Besides, Singapore’s increased inflation rate by 2.7% may boost share prices.

STI Day Performance
Open 3258.28
High 3269.17
Low 3256.17
Close 3262.03
Change(Points) 4.630
% Change 0.14%
Volume 1592.5M
Rise 231
Fall 168
Unch 693

Market forecast for STI:
After moving down over last week, Singapore Share prices opened near previous close with STI up 0.88 points to 3258.280. It formed an inverted hammer pattern for the day by making high at 3269.170. The whole day range was 12.67 points by making low at 3256.500 and closed at 3262.030. Green candlestick pattern showed that buyer’s sentiments dominated sellers. A bullish reversal is anticipated as it covered prices range under rounded top pattern for more than a month and inflation in Singapore may put further trajectory.
Technical indicators:
RSI stood below the centre line at 46.484 with its CCI at-125.18. Difference line of MACD performed at 5.189 which lied below its signal line which performed at 8.386.

STI LEVELS
Support 1 3246
Support 2 3236
Support 3 3221
Resistance 1 3279
Resistance 2 3289
Resistance 3 3304

Important Factor for today:-

  • Yoma Strategic Holdings has received an acquisition offer of 70% of land in Pun Hlaing Golf Estate (PHGE).
  • R H Energy is under the reverse takeover by Chiway Land Group to get listing on SGX.
  • Olam International reported a partnership with Mitsubishi Corporation of Japan (MC) to grow its Australian grains business for the investment of US$80 million to take an 80% equity stake in Olam’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Olam Grains Australia (OGA).
  • Nam Cheong sold two accommodation work barges worth US$84 million to repeat customer Perdana Petroleum BHD.
  • Singapore’s inflation rose to 2.7% in May.
Top Gainers Top Losers
Scrip Name CMP %change Scrip Name CMP %change
ComfortDelGro 2.5 2.88 HongkongLand USD 6.58 -1.05
SIA Engineering 5.09 1.6 Ascendas Reit 2.27 -0.87
CityDev 10.35 1.07 HPH Trust USD 0.715 -0.69
Golden Agri-Res 0.565 0.89 Olam Intl 2.44 -0.41
SingTel 3.83 0.79 Global Logistic 2.66 -0.38

Market Review for STI:
The market opened lower @3278.08 and the high was marked @3282.86, the high was observed @3282.86 and the low of the day was at 3272.23.

STI

STI Day Performance
Open 3278.08
High 3282.86
Low 3272.23
Close 3279.64
Change(Points) -0.53
% Change -0.02
Volume 2007.8M
Rise 235
Fall 161
Unch 385

Market forecast for STI:
STI formed a green candle for the day and the index closed lower than the previous day close .The index is in uptrend but still the minor movements may be in downtrend. It is expected to move in a downtrend 3260-3280.
Technical indicators:
RSI is above the centre line @55.37, where CCI @31.29
Important Factor for today:-

  • CAPITALAND hold more than 90% of the issued shares of CapitaMalls Asia .CMA shares will not be traded anymore on stock exchange .The application has been submitted by CapitaLand for the delisting of CMA.
  • SGX seeks a proposal to ease a secondary listing for the companies to make it easier. It will no longer impose additional continuing listing obligations.
  • There has been no material development in STATS ChipPAC since May 16, its announcement date. The interest is shown by the other parties to acquire all the shares in the company.
Top Gainers Top Loosers
Scrip Name CMP %change Scrip Name CMP %change
Olam Intl 2.33 1.75 CapitaMall Trust 1.99 -2.45
ComfortDelGro 2.42 0.83 HongkongLand USD 6.83 -2.43
SIA Engineering 5.01 0.81 JMH 400 USD 59.88 -2.41
HPH Trust USD 0.74 0.68 JSH 500 USD 35.6 -1.77
OCBC Bank 9.75 0.52 Golden Agri-Res 0.56 -1.75
MARKET REVIEW FOR KLCI

The share prices opened higher, index up 3.96 points and opened @1869.98. Yesterday the shares ended lower, index slipped 7.35 points. Today’s close price is 1869 and the low is marked @1863.11.

Image

KLCI Day Performance
Open 1869.98
High 1870.6
Low 1863.11
Close 1869
Change(Points) +3.800
% Change +0.20
Volume 1494.2M
Rise 380
Fall 361
Unch 875

Market forecast for KLCI:
The KLCI is performing average and is moving in a price range of 1860-1880 .It is expected that it will be in a same range.
Technical indicators:
RSI is just below the centre line@50.75 where the CCI is performing at -53.96.

Top Gainers Top Loosers
Scrip Name CMP %change Scrip Name CMP %change
MISC 6.1 1.5 GENTING 9.83 -1.7
ASTRO 3.46 0.29 IOICORP 5.11 -1.54
PETGAS 24.06 0.25 YTL 1.61 -1.23
KLK 24.24 0.17 TENAGA 11.98 -1.16
RHBCAP 8.38 -0.12 IOIPG 2.5 -0.79

Market Review for STI:
STI
opens little bit higher than the previous close @3304.06 and the close was marked @3296.4 ,the low was observed @3292.03 and the high of the day was marked @3304.19.

STI Day Performance
Open 3304.06
High 3304.19
Low 3292.03
Close 3296.4
Change(Points) -5.840
% Change -0.18%
Volume 1377.1M
Rise 179
Fall 219
Unch 385

Market forecast for STI:
STI formed a red candle for the day with a real body and a long lower shadow . This is a stick pattern .The overall trend of the market is uptrend so it is expected that STI is will move in trend .Though today it performed low but is expected to move with the major trend which is up.
Technical indicators:
CCI is @125.89 and RSI is @62.16

STI LEVELS
Support 1 3285
Support 2 3275
Support 3 3260
Resistance 1 3305
Resistance 2 3315
Resistance 3 3330

Important Factor for today:-

  • The board of directors from Oxley Holding proposed to split every two ordinary shares into three shares .This split will increase the market liquidity of the shares and broaden its shareholder base.The company has 2.98 billion issued shares, if proposal accepted then will have 4.42 billion shares .
  • YuuZoo, a Singapore e-commerce firm , plans to go public through a S$490.9 million reverse takeover of W corporation ltd.
  • The Singapore Minister for Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang said ,the infrastructure need to enhance the financing ecosystem’s ability to match projects with available capital .
  • China’s factory sector performed best due to the improvement in export orders ,it may be a sign of economic stability.

Top Gainers Top Loosers
Scrip Name CMP %change Scrip Name CMP %change
ComfortDelGro 2.4 3 Sembcorp Ind 5.38 -1.28
Noble 1.425 1.79 Wilmar Intl 3.2 -1.24
SPH 4.19 0.48 CapitaMall Trust 2.04 -0.97
DBS 16.98 0.35 ThaiBev 0.635 -0.78
CapitaLand 3.2 0.31 CityDev 10.35 -0.77

Market Review for KLCI:
KLCI prices opens 4.41 points up @1866.37 and the close of the day was marked @1872.55 .The high of the day was marked @1872.55 and the closing was @1872.55. The market performed well than the previous day .From the current price movement the RSI is indicating the up movement while CCI indicating the trend reversal.

KLCI Day Performance
Open 1866.37
High 1872.55
Low 1866.37
Close 1872.55
Change(Points) +8.3
% Change +0.44
Volume 1470.8M
Rise 176
Fall 232
Unch 375

Market forecast for KLCI:
The KLCI formed a green candle for the day with no shadows and only a real body.The price movement for the next day may be expected to be in a price range of 1860-1890.

KLCI LEVELS
Support 1 1865
Support 2 1855
Support 3 1845
Resistance 1 1880
Resistance 2 1890
Resistance 3 1900

Technical indicators:
The CCI is marked @-15.575 and RSI is @53.153

Top Gainers Top Loosers
Scrip Name CMP %change Scrip Name CMP %change
IOICORP 5.19 4.43 MISC 6.01 -2.12
HLFG 15.82 1.93 SKPETRO 4.07 -1.45
ASTRO 3.45 1.47 PBBANK 21.06 -0.38
AXIATA 6.9 1.47 IHH 4.16 -0.24
GENTING 10 1.01 UMW 10.78 -0.19

GOLD
Gold prices have been trading below $1300. Expectations remain that stronger U.S. economic data will support the Federal Reserve’s policy of paring back its bullion-friendly stimulus measures despite weak Q1 growth data. Besides, lack of investment demand and soft physical demand also exerted downside pressure on prices. Rising equities in the US and optimism about the US economy also triggered heavy bout of selling. Expectations of rate cuts by the European Central Bank stoked investor appetite for equities.
Forecast
We expect prices to trade down today on an account of stronger global equities and weak physical demand in Asia.
SILVER
Taking cues from weakness in gold prices even spot silver prices continued to trade lower last week. Weakness across the base metals complex and strength in the Dollar index were the prime factors for decline of more than 2% in spot silver prices. As the tensions between Ukraine and Russia seem to have intensified as Russia has threatened to cut-off gas supplies to Ukraine as early as Tuesday will act as a positive factor.
Forecast
Silver prices are expected to trade sideways to lower as the recent bout of selling is expected to continue.
CRUDE
Crude oil is trading higher on NYMEX today. Crude oil fell on Friday as traders took profit at the end of the month, although the American benchmark rose 3% in May; strengthen supply worries and strong gasoline demand in the United States.
OPEC’s oil output has risen to a three-month high in May as increased supplies from Angola and a further gain in exports from southern Iraq outweighed worsening unrest in Libya. Oil exports from Iraq rose by 8% in May and a new floating terminal was inaugurated that will expand shipping capacity from the country’s southern ports by 800,000 bpd.
Venezuela will appeal an arbitration ruling allowing refiner Phillips 66 to acquire state oil company PDVSA’s 50% stake in a delayed coking unit at the Sweeny refinery.
Forecast
In Libya, the crude output still remains a question mark as production at major oilfields are still at halt raising concerns on the supply side. We expect prices to trade higher for the day on account of encouraging factory activity data from major buyer China.
TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1238 1233 1253 1258
SILVER 18.50 18.30 18.90 19.10
CRUDE 102.40 101.80 103.60 104.10

 DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

  • NG inventories rose by 114 bcf, largest weekly injection since 2009.
  • US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment grew to 81.9-level in May.
  • LME Copper inventories declined by 3% last week.
  • German Retail Sales fell by 0.9% in the month of April.
  • German manufacturing PMI having a major impact on market.