Gold prices have been trading below $1300. Expectations remain that stronger U.S. economic data will support the Federal Reserve’s policy of paring back its bullion-friendly stimulus measures despite weak Q1 growth data. Besides, lack of investment demand and soft physical demand also exerted downside pressure on prices. Rising equities in the US and optimism about the US economy also triggered heavy bout of selling. Expectations of rate cuts by the European Central Bank stoked investor appetite for equities.
We expect prices to trade down today on an account of stronger global equities and weak physical demand in Asia.
Taking cues from weakness in gold prices even spot silver prices continued to trade lower last week. Weakness across the base metals complex and strength in the Dollar index were the prime factors for decline of more than 2% in spot silver prices. As the tensions between Ukraine and Russia seem to have intensified as Russia has threatened to cut-off gas supplies to Ukraine as early as Tuesday will act as a positive factor.
Silver prices are expected to trade sideways to lower as the recent bout of selling is expected to continue.
Crude oil is trading higher on NYMEX today. Crude oil fell on Friday as traders took profit at the end of the month, although the American benchmark rose 3% in May; strengthen supply worries and strong gasoline demand in the United States.
OPEC’s oil output has risen to a three-month high in May as increased supplies from Angola and a further gain in exports from southern Iraq outweighed worsening unrest in Libya. Oil exports from Iraq rose by 8% in May and a new floating terminal was inaugurated that will expand shipping capacity from the country’s southern ports by 800,000 bpd.
Venezuela will appeal an arbitration ruling allowing refiner Phillips 66 to acquire state oil company PDVSA’s 50% stake in a delayed coking unit at the Sweeny refinery.
In Libya, the crude output still remains a question mark as production at major oilfields are still at halt raising concerns on the supply side. We expect prices to trade higher for the day on account of encouraging factory activity data from major buyer China.
TODAY’S DAY RANGE
- NG inventories rose by 114 bcf, largest weekly injection since 2009.
- US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment grew to 81.9-level in May.
- LME Copper inventories declined by 3% last week.
- German Retail Sales fell by 0.9% in the month of April.
- German manufacturing PMI having a major impact on market.