The EUR/USD pair had a positive session on Friday, breaking the top of the hammer for the Thursday session which of course is a strong buy signal. However, there is a significant amount of resistance just above going all the way to the 1.37 level at the very least, and as a result we are very hesitant to start buying now. We believe that ultimately this market should continue to stay in the consolidation area that we have been in for some time, thereby making it a very difficult market to get overly excited about. We are on the sidelines.
The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, closing just below the 101.50 level. With that, it appears that the market is probably going to test the support area just below, and we will be looking for some type of supportive candle in order to go along for the short-term trade. We don’t think of that the market will break down here, simply because we have been so sideways for so long. Until we are told otherwise, we have to believe that this market simply stays in this consolidation area.
The GBP/USD pair went back and forth on Friday, essentially going nowhere. However, the one thing that he did do was show the 1.70 level to be supportive yet again, and with that we believe that this market is in fact trying to wind itself up in order to make a move higher. That move higher should get us to the 1.75 level given enough time, thereby creating a market that can be bought on dips going forward. We have absolutely no interest in selling this pair, and we believe that there is a significant amount of support down at the 1.69 handle.
The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the session on Friday but gave back up most of the gains. With that, the market tested the 0.9450 level, an area that has been very resistant risk lately. Because of this, we feel that the market will more than likely continue to pull back time and time again until we finally can build up enough momentum to break out above the massive resistance. We believe that the resistance goes all the way to the 0.95 handle, so we are not buyers until we break that level or if we get some type of supportive candle below.
Currency Data for 30 June
|4:15am||NZD||Building Consents m/m||1.50%|
|5:20am||JPY||Prelim Industrial Production m/m||0.90%||-2.80%|
|6:00am||AUD||MI Inflation Gauge m/m||0.30%|
|6:30am||NZD||High||ANZ Business Confidence||53.5|
|Tentative||AUD||HIA New Home Sales m/m||2.90%|
|7:00am||AUD||Private Sector Credit m/m||0.40%||0.50%|
|10:30am||JPY||Housing Starts y/y||-10.10%||-3.30%|
|11:30am||EUR||German Retail Sales m/m||0.80%||-0.90%|
|1:30pm||EUR||M3 Money Supply y/y||0.70%||0.80%|
|EUR||Private Loans y/y||-1.70%||-1.80%|
|2:00pm||GBP||Net Lending to Individuals m/m||2.5B||2.4B|
|GBP||M4 Money Supply m/m||0.20%||-0.20%|
|2:30pm||EUR||High||CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.60%||0.50%|
|EUR||Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.70%||0.70%|
|EUR||Italian Prelim CPI m/m||0.20%||-0.10%|
|7:30pm||USD||High||Pending Home Sales m/m||1.40%||0.40%|