FOREX Trading Signals for July 3rd

Posted: July 3, 2014 in Uncategorized

The EUR/USD pair fell during the session on Wednesday, testing the 1.3650 handle. That level of course was a resistance area, and breaking above it was significant as well. The fact that we are starting to find a little bit of support here suggests that perhaps the Euro is ready to continue going higher. However, we need to see a break above the 1.3750 level in order to be comfortable buying. As far selling is concerned, we have no action doing so at the moment as it is much easier initially Euro against the Pound at the moment.
The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the session on Wednesday, but as you can see found enough support near the 101.50 level to turn things back around and go higher. This was partially helped by the ADP employment report, which suggests that perhaps the nonfarm payroll number today will be strong. However, this pair is very sensitive to the nonfarm payroll number so it’s likely that this market will be very difficult to trade. Pullbacks should be looked at as potential buying opportunities, as the market certainly looks like it’s got plenty of support just below.
The GBP/USD pair went slightly higher during the session on Wednesday, but looks as if it’s trying to build up enough steam to go higher. The markets been rather strong recently, so it’s interesting to see how it may or may not be able to continue going higher. The market has certainly broken out to the upside, so we are not willing to sell. We think the pullbacks will be buying opportunities, and will treat them as such as the break above the 1.7050 level was of course significant. We believe that this market is on its way to the 1.75 level, so we are more than willing to continue to buy every time it dips.
The AUD/USD pair fell significantly during the session on Wednesday, taking back most of the gains from the Tuesday session. This being the case, the market looks as if it’s trying to find support at the site of the initial breakout from the ascending triangle that we had been in. With that, we are looking for supportive candles in order to start buying but recognize that the nonfarm payroll numbers will certainly have a massive effect on what happens. The true longer-term breakout would be on a move above the 0.95 handle, so if you are more inclined to trade longer-term charts, you will see that a close above that level should be a nice opportunity to buy.
Currency Data for 03rd July

Time Currency Impact Particular Forecast Previous
4:56am AUD AIG Services Index 49.9
6:28am CNY High Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.5
6:30am AUD High RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
7:00am AUD High Building Approvals m/m 3.10% -5.80%
AUD High Retail Sales m/m 0.00% -0.10%
7:15am CNY HSBC Services PMI 50.7
9:15am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.61|3.7
12:45pm EUR Spanish Services PMI 56.3 55.7
1:15pm EUR Italian Services PMI 52.3 51.6
1:30pm EUR Final Services PMI 52.8 52.8
2:00pm GBP High Services PMI 58.1 58.6
GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -10.2B -10.6B
2:30pm EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.30% 0.40%
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction 1.96|1.7
5:00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 45.50%
5:15pm EUR High Minimum Bid Rate 0.15% 0.15%
6:00pm CAD High Trade Balance -0.3B -0.6B
EUR High ECB Press Conference
USD High Non-Farm Employment Change 214K 217K
USD High Trade Balance -45.1B -47.2B
USD High Unemployment Claims 314K 312K
USD High Unemployment Rate 6.30% 6.30%
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.20% 0.20%
7:15pm USD Final Services PMI 61.1 61.2
7:30pm USD High ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.3
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 100B 110B

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