The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the session on Monday, but found enough support below the 1.36 level in order to continue going higher. This market of course formed a hammer for the day, which seems to be very strong and because of this we feel that the market will probably continue to go higher and head towards the 1.37 handle. The 1.37 level has in fact been very resistant, and as a result we feel that the market was simply bounce a bit from here, only offering a short-term trading opportunity as far as we can see.
The AUD/USD closed higher on Monday in a lackluster trade. The range was narrow and volume was down. This was likely because there were no major economic data or news to drive the market. Trading conditions could improve later in the week with the release of inflation and trade balance data from China as well as Australian employment numbers.
The GBP/USD pair fell initially during the session on Monday, but found enough support near the 1.71 level to go ahead and balance to form a hammer like candle. This suggests that this market should continue higher, probably heading to our ultimate target of 1.75 given enough time. We think the pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities, and that being the case the markets cannot be sold in our opinion as the British economy continues to look like it’s ready to exit recessionary terms, and as a result the British pound should continue to strengthen overall.
The USD/JPY pair fell during the session on Monday, but as you can see really remains mired in a significant amount of consolidation. With that, we don’t necessarily have a trade at this moment in time, but do recognize that the market is consolidating between the 101 level on the bottom, and the 103 level on the job. With this, we are buyers closer to the 101 level, as long as we get some type of supportive candle. We aren’t necessarily interested in selling at the moment, because we believe that the longer-term move will be to the upside.
Currency Data for 08th july
|3:30am||NZD||High||NZIER Business Confidence||32||52|
|JPY||Bank Lending y/y||2.30%||2.20%|
|7:00am||AUD||High||NAB Business Confidence||8||7|
|10:30am||JPY||Economy Watchers Sentiment||47.7||49.2||45.1|
|11:30am||EUR||German Trade Balance||18.8B||15.7B||17.2B|
|12:15pm||EUR||French Gov Budget Balance||-64.3B||-64.2B|
|EUR||French Trade Balance||-4.9B||-4.1B||-4.1B|
|CHF||Retail Sales y/y||-0.60%||1.50%||0.80%|
|2:00pm||GBP||High||Manufacturing Production m/m||-1.30%||0.40%||0.30%|
|GBP||Industrial Production m/m||-0.70%||0.30%||0.30%|
|All Day||EUR||ECOFIN Meetings|
|5:00pm||USD||NFIB Small Business Index||97.3||96.6|
|7:30pm||GBP||NIESR GDP Estimate||0.90%|
|USD||JOLTS Job Openings||4.53M||4.46M|
|11:15pm||USD||FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks|