Gold dropped below $1300 round figure mark also representing 100-day SMA support and is now hovering around 50% Fib. retracement level June-July 2014 up-swing. The $1290-80 zone, comprising of 100-day, 200-day SMAs and 50% retracement level, seems to continue acting as immediate strong support. A break below this immediate strong support now seems to open room for a further decline towards lows tested in June 2014, $1250-40 region. Meanwhile, a move back above 200-day SMA support turned immediate resistance area near $1300-1305, also coinciding with 38.2% retracement level could possibly trigger some recovery towards $1320-25 zone, a major upside resistance also coinciding with 23.6% retracement level. Only a decisive move back above this major resistance would now strengthen the case of further near-term appreciating move for the metal. Should the metal manage to conquer $1320-25 major resistance, it seems more likely to clear July 2014 highs resistance near $1245-50 area and continue moving higher towards $1400 psychological mark resistance.
Gold gapped higher at the open on Friday, but essentially went back and forth during the course of the day, meandering around the $1300 handle. We believe that there is a significant amount of support just below though, so a move back above the $1300 level for any significant amount of time should be a nice buying opportunity as the market should continue to go higher to the $1350 region. As far selling is concerned we have no real interest in selling this market, as a result we are essentially “buy only.”
After failing to clear a very strong resistance near $21.00-21.20 zone, the white metal on Thursday dropped sharply and nearly tested the $20.00 psychological level. The metal, however, is witnessing some relief on Friday and is currently hovering around 38.2% Fib. retracement level of its up-swing from lows tested in May to high touched in July 2014. On the immediate upside 20.70 region seems to provide immediate resistance for the metal. However, major trend defining resistance on the upside is pegged near $21.00-21.20 zone. A decisive strength above this major resistance seems to provide further boost and lift the metal immediate towards $22.00 round figure mark resistance. Meanwhile, on the downside, $20.00 psychological mark, representing 50% Fib. retracement level and also comprising of a confluence between 50-day and 200-day SMA, seems to protect immediate downside for the metal. A drop below this immediate strong support might negate the possibilities of any further up-move for the white metal and the metal could immediate drop towards 61.8% retracement level support near $19.70-19.60 zone.
Silver bounce slightly during the day on Friday, essentially doing nothing but showing that there is still upward pressure in the market. The area that we are in right now is a necessarily important, so if we drift down to the $20 area, it wouldn’t exactly be a surprise as there is much more support there. Nonetheless, we have much in selling this market so we are looking for supportive candle in order to start buying again. Because of this, there is no selling opportunity in this market, and we would ignore negative signals.
Crude fell during the course of the day on Friday, but as you can see found enough support at the $101 level to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. The top of the hammer is of the $102.50 handle, so we can get above there we feel that the market should attack the 103.50 level, and then possibly go higher than that and send the market to the $106.50 handle.
Because of this, we are very bullish of this market and we do not believe that you can sell this market until we break down below the $99 level, something that looks very unlikely. With that, and the fact that we have formed the hammer on Friday, we believe that the market should continue to go higher given enough time, and it will more than likely be choppy on the way up to the highs again, and beyond there we suspect of this market will go to the $110.00 handle.
DAY’S RANGE FOR 28th JULY