FOREX Weekly Technical Report for 28 July-01 Aug

Posted: July 28, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the week, clearing the 1.35 level. It now appears that the selling momentum is picking up, and heading down towards the 1.33 level.Eur-Usd The 1.33 level as you can see is marked on the chart as support, and we feel that the buyers could step back into the marketplace at that area. Nonetheless, it does appear that in the meantime we are going to continue falling, and a break below the 1.33 level would be very bearish. Because of this, we don’t have any interest in buying.
Forecast
Market should continue to go lower. The 1.33 level below should be supportive though, and as a result we think that’s what the market is going to target. Ultimately, the market will probably bounce from there, rally should continue to be a selling opportunity, unless of course we get back above the 1.3550 level, which would show a significant break of resistance.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the area at the 0.8450 to be far too resistive to get above. Aud-UsdTherefore we pushed the market back down to form a shooting star. However, the market has been going sideways for some time so we believe that the market should eventually break out to the upside as the persistence should pay off. Above the 0.95 level, we are buyers, but in the meantime we are on the side lines.
Forecast
Technically, the sell-off last Thursday and Friday confirmed .9469 as a potentially bearish secondary lower top with .9504 the main top. A trade through .9328 will confirm the double-top formation. The main range is .9229 to .9504 This zone has provided support twice in July. Making it an important area to watch for support and technical bounces to the upside.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the week, breaking through the 1.70 handle. However, there is significant support all the way down to the 1.69 level, which could bring the buyers back into the marketplace as we are most certainly still in an uptrend. Gbp-UsdThe support at that area should send market back to the 1.72 handle though, and perhaps even the 1.75 level given enough time. Don’t really have any interest in selling this market, at least until we get below the 1.67 handle which would show a significant breakdown in the upward momentum.
Forecast
This market would probably head down to the 1.67 handle. Ultimately, the market looks more bullish at the moment, but we need to see a supportive candle in order to go long.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair bounced during the week, to continue the consolidation that we have seen for some time. Usd-JpyWith that, we believe that the marketplace should continue to bounce around between the 101 and 103 levels, and as a result we don’t really have much of a play as far as long-term traders are concerned. With that, we believe that it is not until we break above the 103 level that we can start buying for the longer term. As far selling is concerned, we have to break down below the 100 level before we would consider that.
Forecast
Shooting star suggests that the market is going to pull back into the consolidation area, so we are looking for a pullback in order to buy supportive candles below. We believe that the 101 level should continue to be supportive, so we have no interest in selling the signal, and believe that it is simply a sign that we are continuing to try to build up momentum.
Data Update for 28th July to 1st Aug 2014

Date Time Currency Impact Particular Forecast Previous
Mon Jul 28 7:30pm USD High Pending Home Sales m/m -0.20% 6.10%
Tue Jul 29 7:30pm USD High CB Consumer Confidence 85.5 85.2
Wed Jul 30 All Day EUR High German Prelim CPI m/m 0.20% 0.30%
5:45pm USD High ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 234K 281K
11:30pm USD High FOMC Statement
Thu Jul 31 7:00am AUD High Building Approvals m/m 0.20% 9.90%
2:30pm EUR High CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.50% 0.50%
6:00pm CAD High GDP m/m 0.30% 0.10%
USD High Unemployment Claims 306K 284K
Fri Aug 1 6:30am CNY High Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51
7:00am AUD High PPI q/q 0.70% 0.90%
7:15am CNY High HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 52 52
9:00am JPY High BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
2:00pm GBP High Manufacturing PMI 57.2 57.5
6:00pm USD High Non-Farm Employment Change 230K 288K
USD High Unemployment Rate 6.10% 6.10%
7:30pm USD High ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.1 55.3
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