The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the week, clearing the 1.35 level. It now appears that the selling momentum is picking up, and heading down towards the 1.33 level. The 1.33 level as you can see is marked on the chart as support, and we feel that the buyers could step back into the marketplace at that area. Nonetheless, it does appear that in the meantime we are going to continue falling, and a break below the 1.33 level would be very bearish. Because of this, we don’t have any interest in buying.
Market should continue to go lower. The 1.33 level below should be supportive though, and as a result we think that’s what the market is going to target. Ultimately, the market will probably bounce from there, rally should continue to be a selling opportunity, unless of course we get back above the 1.3550 level, which would show a significant break of resistance.
The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the area at the 0.8450 to be far too resistive to get above. Therefore we pushed the market back down to form a shooting star. However, the market has been going sideways for some time so we believe that the market should eventually break out to the upside as the persistence should pay off. Above the 0.95 level, we are buyers, but in the meantime we are on the side lines.
Technically, the sell-off last Thursday and Friday confirmed .9469 as a potentially bearish secondary lower top with .9504 the main top. A trade through .9328 will confirm the double-top formation. The main range is .9229 to .9504 This zone has provided support twice in July. Making it an important area to watch for support and technical bounces to the upside.
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the week, breaking through the 1.70 handle. However, there is significant support all the way down to the 1.69 level, which could bring the buyers back into the marketplace as we are most certainly still in an uptrend. The support at that area should send market back to the 1.72 handle though, and perhaps even the 1.75 level given enough time. Don’t really have any interest in selling this market, at least until we get below the 1.67 handle which would show a significant breakdown in the upward momentum.
This market would probably head down to the 1.67 handle. Ultimately, the market looks more bullish at the moment, but we need to see a supportive candle in order to go long.
The USD/JPY pair bounced during the week, to continue the consolidation that we have seen for some time. With that, we believe that the marketplace should continue to bounce around between the 101 and 103 levels, and as a result we don’t really have much of a play as far as long-term traders are concerned. With that, we believe that it is not until we break above the 103 level that we can start buying for the longer term. As far selling is concerned, we have to break down below the 100 level before we would consider that.
Shooting star suggests that the market is going to pull back into the consolidation area, so we are looking for a pullback in order to buy supportive candles below. We believe that the 101 level should continue to be supportive, so we have no interest in selling the signal, and believe that it is simply a sign that we are continuing to try to build up momentum.
Data Update for 28th July to 1st Aug 2014
|Mon Jul 28||7:30pm||USD||High||Pending Home Sales m/m||-0.20%||6.10%|
|Tue Jul 29||7:30pm||USD||High||CB Consumer Confidence||85.5||85.2|
|Wed Jul 30||All Day||EUR||High||German Prelim CPI m/m||0.20%||0.30%|
|5:45pm||USD||High||ADP Non-Farm Employment Change||234K||281K|
|Thu Jul 31||7:00am||AUD||High||Building Approvals m/m||0.20%||9.90%|
|2:30pm||EUR||High||CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.50%||0.50%|
|Fri Aug 1||6:30am||CNY||High||Manufacturing PMI||51.4||51|
|7:15am||CNY||High||HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI||52||52|
|9:00am||JPY||High||BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks|
|6:00pm||USD||High||Non-Farm Employment Change||230K||288K|
|7:30pm||USD||High||ISM Manufacturing PMI||56.1||55.3|