FOREX Technical Outlook For 31 July

Posted: July 31, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD pair did fall during the course of the day on Wednesday, EUR-USDbut bounce significantly in order to form a bit of a hammer. We continue to hang about the 1.34 level, and ultimately we believe that the real support is below, and much closer to the 1.33 handle. With that, we are looking to sell any rallies, and think that this pair will continue to be negative for the time being. However, we recognize that the nonfarm payroll numbers come out on Friday, so we could have a bit of slow trading during the session today.
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Wednesday,GBP-USD but bounced back above the 1.69 level in order to form a bit of a hammer. That being the case, it appears the market could make another attempt to reach the 1.70 handle, but it is not until we get above that level that we are comfortable buying. As far selling is concerned, if we can sustain a move below 1.69, it’s very likely that this pair does the 1.67 handle. Ultimately though, we do believe that the British pound will get some buying pressure soon.
The AUD/USD pair initially fell during the session on Wednesday, AUd-Usdbut as you can see found enough support near the 0.93 handle in order to turn things back around and show a bit of support towards end of the day. Because of this, we feel that the market should continue to bounce from here, but right now don’t have the reason that we need to start buying. Ultimately, we think this market will continue to try to fight and of buying pressure to head the 0.95 handle, and perhaps even break through.
The USD/JPY pair shot straight through the atmosphere during the day on Wednesday, USD-JPYas the US GDP numbers came out much stronger than anticipated. Because of this, the US dollar gained everywhere, the Japanese yen been no different. The 103 level was the significant resistance barrier that the market has been fighting with for some time now, and as a result we feel that the market should probably pull back from this area first, especially considering that the nonfarm payroll numbers are coming out on Friday.
Data Update for 31st July 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
4:31am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -2 2 1
7:00am AUD High Building Approvals m/m -5.00% -1.00% 10.30%
AUD Import Prices q/q -3.00% -1.40% 3.20%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.70% 0.40% 0.40%
JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.40% 0.70% 0.60%
10:30am JPY Housing Starts y/y -9.50% -11.20% -15.00%
11:29am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.10% 0.60% 1.00%
11:30am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 1.30% 1.10% -0.60%
12:15pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.90% 0.30% 0.70%
1:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change -12K -5K 7K
1:30pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 12.30% 12.60% 12.60%
2:30pm EUR High CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.40% 0.50% 0.50%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
EUR Unemployment Rate 11.50% 11.60% 11.60%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m -0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
5:00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.20%
6:00pm CAD High GDP m/m 0.30% 0.10%
USD High Unemployment Claims 303K 284K
USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.50% 0.30%
7:15pm USD Chicago PMI 63.2 62.6
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 92B 90B

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