Archive for August, 2014

FOREX Daily Technical Outlook : 21 Aug

Posted: August 21, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the course of the session on Wednesday, 1slashing through the 1.33 level finally. With that, it appears that the market is ready to continue briny much lower, probably heading to the 1.30 level before it’s all said and done. Ultimately, we believe that rallies on short-term charts should offer selling opportunities, at least until we get above the 1.3350 level again. Until then, we are “sell only” in the EUR/USD pair, and therefore not even thinking about buying at this point in time. We also believe that a break of the lows has more selling pressure added to the marketplace.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Wednesday, 2but as you can see turned back around just below the 1.67 handle. By doing so, we formed a shooting star, and it does seem that the British pound is destined to head to the 1.65 level, as it is such a massive support level based upon the longer-term charts. On the other hand, if we managed to break above the 1.70 handle, we could very easily head to the 1.68 level. In the meantime, expect a lot of volatility.
AUD/USD
The USD/JPY pair broke out very strongly during the session on Wednesday, 3as the Federal Reserve Minutes came out during the day suggesting that quite a few members of the FMOC are considering that we are perhaps closer to raising rates than originally thought in the United States. With the Bank of Japan most certainly in a very soft monetary policy mode, it makes perfect sense of this pair did in fact go higher. The 103 level of course was significantly resistive, so the fact that we broke out above there really isn’t a big surprise but it does mean something.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair broke out very strongly during the session on Wednesday, 4as the Federal Reserve Minutes came out during the day suggesting that quite a few members of the FMOC are considering that we are perhaps closer to raising rates than originally thought in the United States. With the Bank of Japan most certainly in a very soft monetary policy mode, it makes perfect sense of this pair did in fact go higher. The 103 level of course was significantly resistive, so the fact that we broke out above there really isn’t a big surprise but it does mean something.
Data Update for 21st Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Forecast Previous
4:15am NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.30%
5:30am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.20%
7:05am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.7 50.5
7:15am CNY High HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.7
8:30am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 7.00%
11:30am CHF Trade Balance 1.91B 1.38B
12:30pm EUR High French Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.9 47.8
EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.3 50.4
1:00pm EUR High German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.8 52.4
EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.5 56.7
1:30pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.8
EUR Flash Services PMI 53.6 54.2
2:00pm GBP High Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.10%
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.1B 9.5B
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 2.70|1.8
2:00pm GBP High Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.10%
7:15pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.7 55.8
7:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -9 -8
USD High Existing Home Sales 5.01M 5.04M
USD High Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.3 23.9
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.60% 0.30%
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 78B
Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium

FOREX Technical Outlook 19 Aug

Posted: August 19, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the beginning of the session on Monday, EUR-USDbut turned back around and fell back into the consolidation area. The 1.3350 level offered support though, and as a result it looks like the market is going to continue to go back and forth during the course of the next couple of sessions. With that, we are not necessarily willing to put any money into this marketplace, as it simply looks like it’s going to be far too tight in the meantime. If we get below the 1.33 level, we could fall apart.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair gapped higher at the open on Monday, and then simply sat there.GBP-USD We clear the 1.67 handle, and as a result we believe that this market will go higher. The 1.68 level is resistance though, so we do not expect that to be an easy barrier to break above. Ultimately, we feel that this market breaking above there probably leads to the 1.70 level, and then possibly 1.72. On the other hand, if we break down below the recent low, we could very well fall apart and head to the 1.65 level.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair as you can see went back and forth during theAUD-USD course of the day on Monday, continuing to show the 0.93 level is an area where the buyers could step back into the marketplace. We feel that this market will more than likely continue to be consolidated of on the longer-term charts, as we should go to the 0.9450 level. On the other hand, if we break down below the 0.92 level that would be enough for us to start selling this market as it would be a significant breakdown.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the session on Monday, USD-JPYbut found enough or below in order to bounce and go higher. The resulting hammer does suggests that the markets get ready to go higher, but the 103 level above should continue to be resistive. With that, a break above the 103 level is in fact a strong sign, as the market should go higher at that point. On the other hand, if we break down from here we believe that the 102 level will be supportive, and certainly believe that the 101 level will be as it is the bottom of the large timeframe consolidation area.
Data Update for 19th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particualr Forecast Previous
4:15am NZD PPI Input q/q 0.70% 1.00%
NZD PPI Output q/q 0.80% 0.90%
7:00am AUD High Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
8:30am NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 2.40%
1:30pm EUR Current Account 21.3B 19.5B
2:00pm GBP High CPI y/y 1.80% 1.90%
GBP PPI Input m/m -0.80% -0.80%
GBP RPI y/y 2.60% 2.60%
GBP Core CPI y/y 1.90% 2.00%
GBP HPI y/y 11.20% 10.50%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.10% -0.20%
6:00pm USD High Building Permits 1.00M 0.97M
USD High CPI m/m 0.10% 0.30%
USD High Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
USD Housing Starts 0.97M 0.89M

FOREX Technical Outlook 12 Aug

Posted: August 12, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Monday, EUR-USDcontinuing to show a bit of a downtrend, and consolidating in this general vicinity. We believe that the 1.33 level is the significant support that the market will look for, and ultimately that’s where we would go. We believe that the market is looking for that area, and as a result we are sellers short-term, and then look for some type of supportive candle in the 1.33 area to turn things back around and perhaps bounce size 1.35. At this point time, we believe that short-term trading will continue to be the way of the market.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair rose slightly during the session on Monday, GBP-USDbut found the 1.68 level resistive. This was an area of support previously, so the fact that we did not break above there is in fact interesting. We been in a pretty significant downtrend for five or six weeks now, and as a result we feel that the market needs to bounce sooner or later, and a trend change on the shorter-term needs to happen or the longer-term uptrend could be done with.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Monday, but not significantly so.AUD-USD It appears that the market is essentially comfortable in this general vicinity, at the 0.9250 region. We believe that the market is probably one that still is a bit sideways at the moment, so we are not interested in trading the Australian dollar at the moment. If we break above the top of the hammer from Friday though, we believe that the market will head to the 0.9350 region in the short-term. The 0.92 level below is probably massive support.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the day on Monday, but found enough support at the 102 handle to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. USD-JPYThis hammer of course suggests that buyers are coming back into the marketplace, and as a result we think that there will be a slightly upward bias in this market going forward. We believe that the 103 level will eventually be targeted, but recognize that the move will probably be very choppy. With this, we have no interest in selling this market currently
Data Update for 12th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particualr Forecast Previous
12:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 0.50% 0.50%
12th-14th CNY New Loans 780B 1080B
12th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 14.50% 14.70%
5:00am EUR High German ZEW Economic Sentiment 18.2 27.1
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 41.3 48.1
7:30am USD NFIB Small Business Index 96.3 95
10:00am USD JOLTS Job Openings 4.74M 4.64M
2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -98.2B 70.5B
7:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY Prelim GDP q/q -1.70% 1.60%
JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 1.70% -0.10%
8:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.90%
9:30pm AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.80% 0.70%

FOREX Day Technical Outlook 07 Aug

Posted: August 7, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell during the bulk of the session on Tuesday, EUR-USDbut found enough support just above the 1.3325 level in order to bounce and form a nice-looking hammer. It appears that this market is starting find significant support in this general vicinity, and we do think that the 1.33 handle is probably about as low as this market can go right now. On a break of the top of the hammer, we think that a short-term buying opportunity certainly does exist, and that the market will probably head to the 1.3450 level, and then possibly the 1.35 level.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair fell initially during the session on Wednesday, GBP-USDbut as you can see found support at the 1.68 handle yet again. Because of this, we ended up forming a hammer, and that of course is a very positive sign. Because of that, we feel that this market is ready to go higher, and on a break above the top of the hammer we are buyers, expecting to see this market head to the 1.70 level first, as it was the significant support holding up the market previously.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair rose during the course of the day on Wednesday, AUD-USDbreaking above the 0.9350 handle. This is where we expect to see a bit of resistance though, as it was a previous consolidation area, and was support. If we can break the top of the range for the day, we believe that the Australian dollar will head to the 0.9450 level again, and then possibly make another attempt a break above the 0.95 handle, which would lead us into a more “buy-and-hold” type of market at that point. It is not until we break below the 0.92 level that we would be sellers.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the day on Wednesday, USD-JPYbut as you can see bounced back above the 102 level. Because of this, we feel that the market still has plenty of support below, so we are looking for supportive daily candle in order to start buying again, anticipating a move back to the 103 handle. It’s hard to imagine this market breaking above there though, as we are in the month of August so we think this is more or less going to be a short-term buying opportunity at the moment.
Data Update for 7th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
5:00am AUD AIG Construction Index 52.6 51.8
7:00am AUD High Employment Change -0.3K 13.5K 14.9K
AUD High Unemployment Rate 6.40% 6.00% 6.00%
11:15am CHF SECO Consumer Climate -1 4 1
11:30am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.30% 1.40% -1.70%
12:15pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.4B -5.0B -5.1B
12:30pm CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 453.4B 449.6B
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 2.09|2.3
4:30pm GBP High Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
GBP High Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP High MPC Rate Statement
5:15pm EUR High Minimum Bid Rate 0.15% 0.15%
6:00pm CAD High Building Permits m/m -1.80% 13.80%
EUR High ECB Press Conference
USD High Unemployment Claims 305K 302K
7:30pm CAD High Ivey PMI 54.1 46.9
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 89B 88B

FOREX Technical Outlook 06 Aug

Posted: August 6, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell during the session on Tuesday, testing the lows 1again and even managed to break them at one point during the day. This market looks a very broken at this point, and we see no reason whatsoever why this market shouldn’t head back down to the 1.33 level. In fact, we believe that short-term rallies will be opportunities to sell this pair, as the US dollar continues to reign supreme. In fact, we believe that this market will find a ton of resistance above the 1.35 handle as well, and as a result we are bearish, even if we rally.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to fall during the session on Tuesday,2 but as you can see found enough support to turn things back around and form a hammer. This hammer of course is very positive, and as a result a move above the top of it should send this market much higher. The 1.68 level seems to have held as support, and as a result we figure that the market will probably head to the 1.70 level next.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the day on Tuesday, 3but failed and turned back around and form a slightly negative candle. However, we are sitting on top of the 0.93 handle, and as a result it’s likely that the market will find some type of support between here and the 0.92 handle. We would be buyers of a supportive handle, but obviously do not have it yet. If we do fall below the 0.92 handle however, we would be sellers of the market as it should then head to the 0.90 level.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair had a very volatile session on Tuesday, but ultimately showed the 103 level to be resistive. 4Because of this, we ended up forming a shooting star, which of course is a relatively negative sign. At the end of the day though, we are in consolidation, so it’s hard not to look at this as a simple pullback waiting to happen, and not much more. We would be buyers below on supportive candles, as we think the buyers should continue to step into the market as they have the entire year once the pair falls.
Data Update for 6th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
4:15am NZD High Employment Change q/q 0.40% 0.70% 0.90%
NZD High Unemployment Rate 5.60% 5.80% 5.90%
NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.60% 0.50% 0.30%
4:31am GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.90% -1.80%
10:30am JPY Leading Indicators 105.50% 105.50% 104.80%
11:30am EUR German Factory Orders m/m -3.20% 0.50% -1.60%
12:30pm GBP Halifax HPI m/m 1.40% 0.50% -0.40%
12:45pm CHF CPI m/m -0.40% -0.50% -0.10%
1:30pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.90% 0.90% -1.20%
1:40pm EUR Retail PMI 47.6 50
2:00pm GBP High Manufacturing Production m/m 0.30% 0.70% -1.30%
GBP Industrial Production m/m 0.30% 0.60% -0.60%
2:30pm EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q -0.20% 0.10% -0.10%
6:00pm CAD Trade Balance

FOREX Technical Outlook 05 Aug

Posted: August 5, 2014 in Forex

shutterstock_47374963EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the day on Monday, EUR-USDbut as you can see we bounced slightly in order to form a bit of a hammer. However, the range was very tight, and as a result we believe that even if we do see some bullish pressure now, it’s going to have a fight on its hands to get above the 1.35 handle. With that, we are more than comfortable sitting on the side lines waiting for the market to come to the 1.35 region in order to sell the first signs of weakness.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair bounced during the session on Monday, GBP-USDas the 1.68 level has offered enough support to at least do that. We believe them the British pound has been sold off a bit too much, and as a result we think that a return to the 1.70 level is likely, and as result that’s what we are expecting. If we can get above the 1.70 level, we feel the market could go to the 1.72 handle after that. On the other hand, if we get weak candle at the 1.70 handle, we feel that the market will more than likely sell off again.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair initially fell during the day on Monday, but as you can see found enough support to turn things back around and form a hammer. AUD-USDThis hammer tells us that the market wants to go higher, but we need to get above the 0.9350 level in order to feel that we reenter the consolidation that leads to the 0.9450 handle. Ultimately, we believe that the market is trying to build up enough momentum to break out, which would be signified by a daily close well above the 0.95 handle. Once we get back, we are longer-term buy-and-hold type of traders.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the day on Monday, but as you can see about enough support of the 102.50 level to turn things background and form a hammer. USD-JPYBecause of this, we believe that the market will make another attempt at the 103 level in the short term, but whether or not we can get above there is probably a completely different story. That area is a significant amount of resistance, so we prefer taking short term long positions. At this point in time, we have no interest in selling this pair.
Data Update for 5th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
5:00am AUD AIG Services Index 49.3 47.6
7:00am AUD High Trade Balance -1.68B -2.00B -2.04B
7:15am CNY HSBC Services PMI 50 53.1
9:15am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.52|4.3 0.56|3.4
10:00am AUD High Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
AUD High RBA Rate Statement
12:45pm EUR Spanish Services PMI 56.2 55.1 54.8
1:15pm EUR Italian Services PMI 52.8 53.2 53.9
1:30pm EUR Final Services PMI 54.2 54.4 54.4
2:00pm GBP High Services PMI 59.1 58.1 57.7
2:30pm EUR Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.00%
7:15pm USD Final Services PMI 61 61
7:30pm USD High ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56
USD Factory Orders m/m 0.60% -0.50%
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 46.2 45.6

FOREX Outlook – 04 Aug

Posted: August 4, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair went higher during the course of the day on Friday,EUR-USDas the nonfarm payroll numbers missed just slightly. That being the case, the fact that we had to hammers previously suggests that the market had support to begin with. That being the case, we look at this market with a bit of skepticism though, as we recognize that quite a bit of selling happen at the end of the day. We also recognize of the 1.35 level above is massively resistant, so quite frankly we would be willing to sell any type of resistant candle in that area as well.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, GBP-USDslamming into the 1.68 region. This area does start to see a bit of support though, so really this point time we are waiting to see if we get some type of supportive candle as this market is certainly oversold. We believe that the 1.70 level will continue to be a bit of a magnet, but recognize that we certainly have quite a bit of bearishness in the market suddenly. If we can get above the 1.70 level, this market should go to the 1.72 level.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, but found the 0.93 level to be supportive. AUD-USDThe real support in our opinion is down at the 0.92 handle though, so seeing this market drop from here is what we expect to happen. However, the 0.92 level should be rather supportive, so we are actually going to wait and see if that level offers a supportive candle that gives us a better chance at a little bit longer-term trade. Buying at this point in time is not something we are interested in until we test that level.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair had a very violent session on Friday, as nonfarm payroll numbers came out. USD-JPYThis is typically a very rough day for this pair, and the fact that we feel like this tells us that the market still does not have the momentum to break out above the 103 level. With that, we feel that the market is going to continue to consolidate, and quite frankly we think that downward action will probably occur, but recognize that the 102 areas should continue to offer potential buying opportunities as it has been so supportive and resistive over the course of several months.
Data Update for 4th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
5:20am JPY Monetary Base y/y 42.70% 41.20% 42.60%
6:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.20% 0.00%
6:30am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -2.40% -0.90%
7:00am AUD High Retail Sales m/m 0.60% 0.30% -0.30%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.30% 4.40%
12:30pm EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -29.8K -116.3K -122.7K
1:00pm CHF SVME PMI 54.3 56.2 54
2:00pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 2.7 9.1 10.1
GBP High Construction PMI 62.4 62.1 62.6
2:30pm EUR PPI m/m 0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey