FOREX Outlook – 04 Aug

Posted: August 4, 2014 in Forex

The EUR/USD pair went higher during the course of the day on Friday,EUR-USDas the nonfarm payroll numbers missed just slightly. That being the case, the fact that we had to hammers previously suggests that the market had support to begin with. That being the case, we look at this market with a bit of skepticism though, as we recognize that quite a bit of selling happen at the end of the day. We also recognize of the 1.35 level above is massively resistant, so quite frankly we would be willing to sell any type of resistant candle in that area as well.
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Thursday, GBP-USDslamming into the 1.68 region. This area does start to see a bit of support though, so really this point time we are waiting to see if we get some type of supportive candle as this market is certainly oversold. We believe that the 1.70 level will continue to be a bit of a magnet, but recognize that we certainly have quite a bit of bearishness in the market suddenly. If we can get above the 1.70 level, this market should go to the 1.72 level.
The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, but found the 0.93 level to be supportive. AUD-USDThe real support in our opinion is down at the 0.92 handle though, so seeing this market drop from here is what we expect to happen. However, the 0.92 level should be rather supportive, so we are actually going to wait and see if that level offers a supportive candle that gives us a better chance at a little bit longer-term trade. Buying at this point in time is not something we are interested in until we test that level.
The USD/JPY pair had a very violent session on Friday, as nonfarm payroll numbers came out. USD-JPYThis is typically a very rough day for this pair, and the fact that we feel like this tells us that the market still does not have the momentum to break out above the 103 level. With that, we feel that the market is going to continue to consolidate, and quite frankly we think that downward action will probably occur, but recognize that the 102 areas should continue to offer potential buying opportunities as it has been so supportive and resistive over the course of several months.
Data Update for 4th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
All Day AUD Bank Holiday
5:20am JPY Monetary Base y/y 42.70% 41.20% 42.60%
6:00am AUD MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.20% 0.00%
6:30am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -2.40% -0.90%
7:00am AUD High Retail Sales m/m 0.60% 0.30% -0.30%
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 0.30% 4.40%
12:30pm EUR Spanish Unemployment Change -29.8K -116.3K -122.7K
1:00pm CHF SVME PMI 54.3 56.2 54
2:00pm EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 2.7 9.1 10.1
GBP High Construction PMI 62.4 62.1 62.6
2:30pm EUR PPI m/m 0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey


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