The EUR/USD pair fell during the session on Tuesday, testing the lows again and even managed to break them at one point during the day. This market looks a very broken at this point, and we see no reason whatsoever why this market shouldn’t head back down to the 1.33 level. In fact, we believe that short-term rallies will be opportunities to sell this pair, as the US dollar continues to reign supreme. In fact, we believe that this market will find a ton of resistance above the 1.35 handle as well, and as a result we are bearish, even if we rally.
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to fall during the session on Tuesday, but as you can see found enough support to turn things back around and form a hammer. This hammer of course is very positive, and as a result a move above the top of it should send this market much higher. The 1.68 level seems to have held as support, and as a result we figure that the market will probably head to the 1.70 level next.
The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the day on Tuesday, but failed and turned back around and form a slightly negative candle. However, we are sitting on top of the 0.93 handle, and as a result it’s likely that the market will find some type of support between here and the 0.92 handle. We would be buyers of a supportive handle, but obviously do not have it yet. If we do fall below the 0.92 handle however, we would be sellers of the market as it should then head to the 0.90 level.
The USD/JPY pair had a very volatile session on Tuesday, but ultimately showed the 103 level to be resistive. Because of this, we ended up forming a shooting star, which of course is a relatively negative sign. At the end of the day though, we are in consolidation, so it’s hard not to look at this as a simple pullback waiting to happen, and not much more. We would be buyers below on supportive candles, as we think the buyers should continue to step into the market as they have the entire year once the pair falls.
Data Update for 6th Aug 2014
|4:15am||NZD||High||Employment Change q/q||0.40%||0.70%||0.90%|
|NZD||Labor Cost Index q/q||0.60%||0.50%||0.30%|
|4:31am||GBP||BRC Shop Price Index y/y||-1.90%||-1.80%|
|11:30am||EUR||German Factory Orders m/m||-3.20%||0.50%||-1.60%|
|12:30pm||GBP||Halifax HPI m/m||1.40%||0.50%||-0.40%|
|1:30pm||EUR||Italian Industrial Production m/m||0.90%||0.90%||-1.20%|
|2:00pm||GBP||High||Manufacturing Production m/m||0.30%||0.70%||-1.30%|
|GBP||Industrial Production m/m||0.30%||0.60%||-0.60%|
|2:30pm||EUR||Italian Prelim GDP q/q||-0.20%||0.10%||-0.10%|