FOREX Day Technical Outlook 07 Aug

Posted: August 7, 2014 in Forex

The EUR/USD pair fell during the bulk of the session on Tuesday, EUR-USDbut found enough support just above the 1.3325 level in order to bounce and form a nice-looking hammer. It appears that this market is starting find significant support in this general vicinity, and we do think that the 1.33 handle is probably about as low as this market can go right now. On a break of the top of the hammer, we think that a short-term buying opportunity certainly does exist, and that the market will probably head to the 1.3450 level, and then possibly the 1.35 level.
The GBP/USD pair fell initially during the session on Wednesday, GBP-USDbut as you can see found support at the 1.68 handle yet again. Because of this, we ended up forming a hammer, and that of course is a very positive sign. Because of that, we feel that this market is ready to go higher, and on a break above the top of the hammer we are buyers, expecting to see this market head to the 1.70 level first, as it was the significant support holding up the market previously.
The AUD/USD pair rose during the course of the day on Wednesday, AUD-USDbreaking above the 0.9350 handle. This is where we expect to see a bit of resistance though, as it was a previous consolidation area, and was support. If we can break the top of the range for the day, we believe that the Australian dollar will head to the 0.9450 level again, and then possibly make another attempt a break above the 0.95 handle, which would lead us into a more “buy-and-hold” type of market at that point. It is not until we break below the 0.92 level that we would be sellers.
The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the day on Wednesday, USD-JPYbut as you can see bounced back above the 102 level. Because of this, we feel that the market still has plenty of support below, so we are looking for supportive daily candle in order to start buying again, anticipating a move back to the 103 handle. It’s hard to imagine this market breaking above there though, as we are in the month of August so we think this is more or less going to be a short-term buying opportunity at the moment.
Data Update for 7th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Actual Forecast Previous
5:00am AUD AIG Construction Index 52.6 51.8
7:00am AUD High Employment Change -0.3K 13.5K 14.9K
AUD High Unemployment Rate 6.40% 6.00% 6.00%
11:15am CHF SECO Consumer Climate -1 4 1
11:30am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.30% 1.40% -1.70%
12:15pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.4B -5.0B -5.1B
12:30pm CHF Foreign Currency Reserves 453.4B 449.6B
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 2.09|2.3
4:30pm GBP High Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B
GBP High Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.50%
Tentative GBP High MPC Rate Statement
5:15pm EUR High Minimum Bid Rate 0.15% 0.15%
6:00pm CAD High Building Permits m/m -1.80% 13.80%
EUR High ECB Press Conference
USD High Unemployment Claims 305K 302K
7:30pm CAD High Ivey PMI 54.1 46.9
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 89B 88B

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