FOREX Technical Outlook 12 Aug

Posted: August 12, 2014 in Forex

The EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Monday, EUR-USDcontinuing to show a bit of a downtrend, and consolidating in this general vicinity. We believe that the 1.33 level is the significant support that the market will look for, and ultimately that’s where we would go. We believe that the market is looking for that area, and as a result we are sellers short-term, and then look for some type of supportive candle in the 1.33 area to turn things back around and perhaps bounce size 1.35. At this point time, we believe that short-term trading will continue to be the way of the market.
The GBP/USD pair rose slightly during the session on Monday, GBP-USDbut found the 1.68 level resistive. This was an area of support previously, so the fact that we did not break above there is in fact interesting. We been in a pretty significant downtrend for five or six weeks now, and as a result we feel that the market needs to bounce sooner or later, and a trend change on the shorter-term needs to happen or the longer-term uptrend could be done with.
The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Monday, but not significantly so.AUD-USD It appears that the market is essentially comfortable in this general vicinity, at the 0.9250 region. We believe that the market is probably one that still is a bit sideways at the moment, so we are not interested in trading the Australian dollar at the moment. If we break above the top of the hammer from Friday though, we believe that the market will head to the 0.9350 region in the short-term. The 0.92 level below is probably massive support.
The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the day on Monday, but found enough support at the 102 handle to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. USD-JPYThis hammer of course suggests that buyers are coming back into the marketplace, and as a result we think that there will be a slightly upward bias in this market going forward. We believe that the 103 level will eventually be targeted, but recognize that the move will probably be very choppy. With this, we have no interest in selling this market currently
Data Update for 12th Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particualr Forecast Previous
12:30am JPY Revised Industrial Production m/m 0.50% 0.50%
12th-14th CNY New Loans 780B 1080B
12th-14th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 14.50% 14.70%
5:00am EUR High German ZEW Economic Sentiment 18.2 27.1
EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 41.3 48.1
7:30am USD NFIB Small Business Index 96.3 95
10:00am USD JOLTS Job Openings 4.74M 4.64M
2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance -98.2B 70.5B
7:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY Prelim GDP q/q -1.70% 1.60%
JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 1.70% -0.10%
8:30pm AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 1.90%
9:30pm AUD Wage Price Index q/q 0.80% 0.70%

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