FOREX Daily Technical Outlook : 21 Aug

Posted: August 21, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the course of the session on Wednesday, 1slashing through the 1.33 level finally. With that, it appears that the market is ready to continue briny much lower, probably heading to the 1.30 level before it’s all said and done. Ultimately, we believe that rallies on short-term charts should offer selling opportunities, at least until we get above the 1.3350 level again. Until then, we are “sell only” in the EUR/USD pair, and therefore not even thinking about buying at this point in time. We also believe that a break of the lows has more selling pressure added to the marketplace.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Wednesday, 2but as you can see turned back around just below the 1.67 handle. By doing so, we formed a shooting star, and it does seem that the British pound is destined to head to the 1.65 level, as it is such a massive support level based upon the longer-term charts. On the other hand, if we managed to break above the 1.70 handle, we could very easily head to the 1.68 level. In the meantime, expect a lot of volatility.
AUD/USD
The USD/JPY pair broke out very strongly during the session on Wednesday, 3as the Federal Reserve Minutes came out during the day suggesting that quite a few members of the FMOC are considering that we are perhaps closer to raising rates than originally thought in the United States. With the Bank of Japan most certainly in a very soft monetary policy mode, it makes perfect sense of this pair did in fact go higher. The 103 level of course was significantly resistive, so the fact that we broke out above there really isn’t a big surprise but it does mean something.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair broke out very strongly during the session on Wednesday, 4as the Federal Reserve Minutes came out during the day suggesting that quite a few members of the FMOC are considering that we are perhaps closer to raising rates than originally thought in the United States. With the Bank of Japan most certainly in a very soft monetary policy mode, it makes perfect sense of this pair did in fact go higher. The 103 level of course was significantly resistive, so the fact that we broke out above there really isn’t a big surprise but it does mean something.
Data Update for 21st Aug 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Forecast Previous
4:15am NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.30%
5:30am AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.20%
7:05am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.7 50.5
7:15am CNY High HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.7
8:30am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 7.00%
11:30am CHF Trade Balance 1.91B 1.38B
12:30pm EUR High French Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.9 47.8
EUR French Flash Services PMI 50.3 50.4
1:00pm EUR High German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.8 52.4
EUR German Flash Services PMI 55.5 56.7
1:30pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.8
EUR Flash Services PMI 53.6 54.2
2:00pm GBP High Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.10%
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.1B 9.5B
Tentative GBP 10-y Bond Auction 2.70|1.8
2:00pm GBP High Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.10%
7:15pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.7 55.8
7:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -9 -8
USD High Existing Home Sales 5.01M 5.04M
USD High Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.3 23.9
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.60% 0.30%
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 78B
Day 1 ALL Jackson Hole Symposium
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