The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the week, but as you can see ended up falling and slicing through the 1.28 level like it wasn’t even there. Because of this, we believe that the euro continues to offer selling opportunities on rallies, but at this point in time we think that the market is probably aiming for the 1.25 handle. Be aware though, this is a market that is certainly oversold by any stretch of imagination and a snapback rally could happen at any point. Ultimately though, we have no plans on buying.
What we see, the 1.25 level is probably the next target, binds longer-term charts suggests that we could go even lower than they are. Any bounce at this point time has to be treated with suspicion, and sold at the first signs of resistance as the market certainly has made up its mind.
The AUD/USD pair fell directly at the open of the week in just continued lower. We managed to break down below the 0.88 level, which of course is a very negative sign. We believe that the 0.87 level below is supportive though, so we figure that the market isn’t going to be able to break down too much from here, but gold certainly is not helping the situation. If we get below the 0.87 level however, this market will then head to the 0.85 handle. We have no plans whatsoever on buying.
The week close by the AUD/USD has the Forex pair in a position to test the January 31 bottom at .8693 and the January 24 bottom at .8659. You have to go to the monthly chart to find the next downside target. Based on the October 2008 bottom at .6008 and the July 2011 top at 1.1080, the next likely target is its 50% level at .8545.
The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but then turned back around to fall and close near the 1.6250 region. The hammer just below from two weeks ago of course should provide plenty of support though, so we feel that this market will more than likely continue to grind sideways in this region a for finally making its move. That being said though, at this point in time we favor the upside in this market based upon the technical factors on this chart such as the hammer from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
As far selling is concerned, we are bit hesitant to start selling in this area, at least until we get below the 1.62 level. If we do in fact sell below that area, we would then aim for the 1.60 level. That level of course should be supportive based upon the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number of importance not only based upon the number itself, but previous action on longer-term charts.
The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support near the 108 level to turn things back around and form a hammer at the top of a very strong move. Because of this, it appears that the market is ready to continue going higher, but we do recognize of the 110 level just above is going to be resistive. Because of this, we are bit hesitant to start buying but recognize that a daily close above the 110 level is probably enough of a reason to start buying this market yet again, as it most certainly cannot be sold at this point in time.
Pullbacks at this point time continue to be buying opportunities as far as we can see, especially considering that the trend is so strong. It is not until we break down below the 105 level that we would even consider selling, something that isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
Data Update for 29th Sep to 03rd Oct 2014
|All Day||EUR||High||German Prelim CPI m/m||-0.10%||0.00%|
|5:30am||NZD||High||ANZ Business Confidence||24.4|
|7:15am||CNY||High||HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI||50.5||50.5|
|2:30pm||EUR||High||CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.30%||0.30%|
|7:30pm||USD||High||CB Consumer Confidence||92.2||92.4|
|7:00am||AUD||High||Retail Sales m/m||0.40%||0.40%|
|5:45pm||USD||High||ADP Non-Farm Employment Change||206K||204K|
|Tentative||NZD||High||GDT Price Index||0.00%|
|7:15pm||USD||High||Final Manufacturing PMI||58||57.9|
|7:30pm||USD||High||ISM Manufacturing PMI||58.6||59|
|7:00am||AUD||High||Building Approvals m/m||1.10%||2.50%|
|5:15pm||EUR||High||Minimum Bid Rate||0.05%||0.05%|
|6:00pm||EUR||High||ECB Press Conference|
|USD||High||Non-Farm Employment Change||216K||142K|
|7:30pm||USD||High||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||58.5||