The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but as you can see found enough support to turn things back around and form a nice hammer. Because of this, it appears the market is ready to bounce from here, and perhaps even go as high as 1.28 before it’s all said and done. Nonetheless, we do not like buying this pair and we do believe that eventually that any rally from here will simply represent value in the US dollar that will force people to come into this market and sell.
The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the session on Friday, but then bounced above the 1.25 level by the time we close. This of course is a very positive looking candle, and as a result the market should continue to go higher for the short-term. Ultimately though we think there is plenty of resistance above and it’s likely that this market will break down. We have no interest in buying the Euro, and believe that the US dollar will continue to be the favored currency by Forex traders around the world.
The AUD/USD pair initially dipped during the course of the week, but then bounced enough to form a hammer yet again. This is the second week in a row we have seen is, so it appears of this market is ready to bounce around. It’s going to be difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this pair, so quite frankly we are standing on the sidelines at the moment. We still favor the downside, but certainly don’t have any type of selling signal at this point in time.
After early session weakness, the AUD/USD rebounded on Friday, closing higher and putting the market in a position to breakout through a short-term retracement zone. The continuation of the move through this zone will not mean the trend has changed, but it could create enough upside momentum to challenge the October 29 top at .8910. A trade through this price will turn the main trend to up on the daily chart.
The GBP/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, and now looks very bearish. Because of this, we feel that this market will then go to the 1.55 handle, and then possibly 1.50 handle given enough time. Rallies at this point in time should continue to be selling opportunities, as we believe the 1.60 level is now the” ceiling” of this particular currency pair. The US dollar is by far the most favored currency in the world, and we don’t see that changing anytime soon as the Federal Reserve has left the quantitative easing game.
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, but bounced enough to form a nice-looking hammer. This of course suggests that we could get a little bit of a bounce but we would anticipate selling pressure to pick back up somewhere closer to the 1.59 handle even if we do get that bounce. We think that the 1.60 level is of course the “ceiling” in this marketplace, and that being the case we feel that the market will eventually break down to the 1.55 handle. Ultimately, we believe that the 1.50 level could be targeted.
The USD/JPY pair broke above the 115 level during the week, and now looks poised to go much higher. We believe that this market will eventually go to the 120 level, and that pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities going forward. With that being the case, we really like this pair and we believe that the US dollar will continue to climb against the Japanese yen over the longer term and that this is a nice “buy-and-hold” type of market. We have no interest in selling this market on believe that the 110 level is now the absolute bottom.
The USD/JPY pair initially broke higher during the course of the session on Friday, but found enough resistance above to turn things back around and form a shooting star. The shooting star of course signifies that we will more than likely pullback but we think that the 115 level is massively supportive. That being the case, we are buyers on this pullbacks, and have no interest whatsoever in selling this market as there is a massive amount of support below. Ultimately, we believe that this market goes to the 120 level, given enough time we feel that it could go even higher.
Data Update for 17th to 21st Nov 2014
|3:15am||NZD||High||Retail Sales q/q||0.80%||1.10%|
|5:20am||JPY||High||Prelim GDP q/q||0.50%||-1.80%|
|7:30pm||EUR||High||ECB President Draghi Speaks|
|6:00am||AUD||High||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes|
|1:55pm||AUD||High||RBA Gov Stevens Speaks|
|3:30pm||EUR||High||German ZEW Economic Sentiment||0.9||-3.6|
|Tentative||NZD||High||GDT Price Index||-0.30%|
|Tentative||JPY||High||Monetary Policy Statement|
|Tentative||JPY||High||BOJ Press Conference|
|3:00pm||GBP||High||MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes||0-0-9||0-0-9|
|GBP||High||MPC Official Bank Rate Votes||2-0-7||2-0-7|
|12:30am||USD||High||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
|7:15am||CNY||High||HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI||50.2||50.4|
|1:30pm||EUR||High||French Flash Manufacturing PMI||48.9||48.5|
|2:00pm||EUR||High||German Flash Manufacturing PMI||51.5||51.4|
|3:00pm||GBP||High||Retail Sales m/m||0.40%||-0.30%|
|7:00pm||CAD||High||Wholesale Sales m/m||0.70%||0.20%|
|USD||High||Core CPI m/m||0.20%||0.10%|
|USD||High||Philly Fed Manufacturing Index||18.9||20.7|
|1:30pm||EUR||High||ECB President Draghi Speaks|
|7:00pm||CAD||High||Core CPI m/m||0.20%||0.20%|