Archive for December, 2014

Shares opened higher with the Straits Times Index at 3,240.51 in early trade, up 0.41 per cent, or 13.28 points.sti Oil prices edged higher in Asia after data showed US stockpiles dipping, while the Federal Reserve indicated interest rates would not be hiked until the middle of next year. Currently Federal Reserve is not increasing rate so it’s good indication for stock market.
Market forecast for STI:
Trend is still in correcting mode. Tomorrow opening will decide the trend of market.
Technical Indicators: RSI is at 40 and CCI is at -180.
Important Factor for today:-

  • Economists at Wall Street’s biggest banks remain convinced the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by next June and most expect the Fed to tighten policy more than once in 2015, a Reuters poll found after the U.S. central bank wrapped up a policy meeting on Wednesday .
  • EU leaders on Thursday will discuss tense relations with Russia and punishing sanctions imposed over Moscow’s actions in Ukraine at a summit led for the first time by Poland’s Kremlin-wary former premier Donald Tusk.
  • Mainboard-listed Silverlake Axis (Silverlake) on Thursday revealed that it has formed a company, Silverlake HGH, to launch a takeover offer for Finzsoft Solutions – an Auckland-based financial technology company that develops and implements software and solutions for banks and financial institutions in New Zealand and Australia – at a price of NZ$3 per share.
  • Olam’s US$1.3 billion deal to buy rival Archer Daniels Midland’s cocoa processing business may reduce liquidity in the niche cocoa bean trade, raising concerns about volatile prices and a potential shake-up of customer relationships.
  • Global Tech (Holdings) incurred a loss of HK$15.99 million (S$2.7 million) for the financial year ended Sept 30, 2014, compared to a net profit of HK$12.88 million made last year.

Market Review for KLCI:
Shares on Bursa Malaysia opened higher lifted by buying support in selected blue chips.example
The FBM KLCI index gained 18.05 points or 1.07% on Thursday. Finance Index increased 0.98% to 15129.39 points, Properties Index up 1.43% to 1258.34 points and Plantation Index rose 0.40% to 7428.89 points. Market traded within a range of 16.85 points between an intra-day high of 1704.85 and a low of 1688.00 during the session.
The KLCI rose to close at 1699.95 points today amid the higher overnight close at Wall Street after US stocks recorded its strongest session for this year. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve signals no hurry to raise interest rate which indicates the confidence in US economy.
Market forecast for KLCI:
The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) stood at 1,690.85, up 8.95 points, after opening 6.13 points higher at 1,688.03. For now, the immediate resistance level is seen at 1,695 points. If a decisive breakout arises, we anticipate the next resistance level at 1,725 points.
Technical indicators:
RSI stood below the center line at 33.392 with its CCI at -104.697. Difference line of MACD performed at -33.170 below its signal line which performed at -25.473.
Economic Factors:

  • Inflation moved up slightly in November mostly due to alcohol and tobacco following the hike in excise duties. The Consumer Price Index posted a 3.0 per cent per cent year-on-year growth from 2.8 per cent in October.
  • FBMKLCI:1,698.57(+16.67),INDUSTRIAL:3,068.49(+24.54),CONSUMER PRODUCT: 540.68 (+ 4.02), INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT: 121.85 (+ 1.67), CONSTRUCTION: 270.00 (+ 3.85), TRADING SERVICES: 222.85 (+ 2.97), FINANCE: 15,092.91 (+110.43), PROPERTIES: 1,258.68 (+ 18.06), PLANTATIONS: 7,494.75 (+ 95.09), MINING: 498.50 (+ 8.11) and TECHNOLOGY: 16.25 (+ 0.59).
  • Short-term interbank rates are expected to remain stable today on Bank Negara Malaysia’s intervention to absorb excess liquidity from the financial system.
  • Physical price of gold stood at RM 129.05 per gramme, down 91 sen from RM 129.96 yesterday.
  • The ringgit opened broadly higher against the US dollar and appreciated against other major currencies.
  • The bearish mood in Bursa Malaysia, which has tumbled to its lowest levels in a year, will prevail as long as crude oil prices are unstable. The blue chips could see positive movements before the year ends as they are now trading at attractive levels, driven by window-dressing activities.
  • Petra Energy Bhd (PEB), which provides brown field services for the upstream oil and gas (O&G) industry, is selling its entire 51% stake in Bumi Subsea Sdn Bhd for RM430,912. PEB initially bought the 51% stake on August 27 last year for RM340,000. At the time, it said the acquisition would enable the group to “benefit from the underwater inspection, maintenance and repair segment of the oil and gas industry”.
  • Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd’s wholly-owned subsidiary Ideal Quality Sdn Bhd has bought a 5.3ha vacant freehold industrial land in Kapar, Klang, for RM39 million. In a statement yesterday, the rubber glove maker said the land is for the expansion of its gloves division. Kossan currently has four manufacturing plants producing five billion pieces of gloves per annum at its current 10.11ha site. All the plants are running at full capacities.
  • AirAsia Bhd will deliver solid earnings from the second quarter of next year as the benefit of lower fuel price trickles in.
  • SP Setia reported fourth quarter earnings of RM131 million, a 27 per cent increase quarter-on-quarter and a three per cent rise year-on-year, taking its 2014 financial year earnings to RM406 million.
  • CORE Gulf Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) producers signalled this week they are prepared to wait as long as six months to a year to see the market stabilise, quashing hopes for any quick intervention to stop the price rout that took crude to under US$60 (RM209.40) per barrel.
  • Airlines around the world are poised for a US$12 billion (RM41.84 billion) windfall as the global oil crash cuts bills for jet fuel, the biggest expense in an industry that was battered by surging commodity prices last decade.

EUR/USD down 0.19% to 1.2486. The pair rose to a three week high of 1.2568 on Tuesday after data showed that the closely watched ZEW index of German economic sentiment improved to its highest level since May this month. The Fed still seems keen to start raising U.S. rates by mid-2015. However, with inflation still well below its 2 percent target and likely to dip further as fuel prices fall, investors are wagering that any hike will only add to the disin flationary impulse in the economy.
GBP/USD was trading at 1.5712 from around 1.5717 ahead of the release of the data, The Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate held steady at 6.0% in the three months to October, compared to expectations for a tick down to 5.9%. The number of people in the U.K. claiming unemployment benefits fell by 26,900 last month, compared to expectations for a decline of 21,200.
The Australian dollar fell from highs near 0.8270 to around 0.8200 and traded near 0.8210 in late trade. US Central bankers meeting today may say they’re monitoring markets carefully as Russia’s currency collapse threatens to destabilize other regions.
The Japanese yen traded between 115.65 yen per US dollar to ¥117.65 and was near ¥117.25 in late US trade. This morning the yen dipped to 116.61 as the greenback recovered some of yesterday’s losses. Japanese exports undershot expectations in November despite the effects of a weaker yen, but rose for the third straight month suggesting a pick-up in global demand. Exports rose 4.9 percent on year, below expectations for a 7 percent rise in a Reuters poll and down from October’s 9.6 percent increase. Imports decline 1.7 percent, below expectations for a 1.7 percent rise and down from October’s 2.7 percent rise.
Data Update for 17th Dec 2014

Time Currency Impact Particular Forecast Previous
3:15am NZD Current Account -5.32B -1.08B
5:00am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.10%
5:20am JPY Trade Balance -0.99T -0.99T
15:00:00 GBP High Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.30% 1.00%
GBP High Claimant Count Change -19.8K -20.4K
GBP High MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2-0-7 2-0-7
GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP Unemployment Rate 5.90% 6.00%
3:30pm CHF ZEW Economic Expectations -7.6
EUR Final CPI y/y 0.30% 0.30%
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 0.70% 0.70%
7:00pm CAD High Wholesale Sales m/m 0.90% 1.80%
USD High CPI m/m -0.10% 0.00%
USD High Core CPI m/m 0.10% 0.20%
USD Current Account -98B -99B
7:30pm CHF SNB Quarterly Bulletin
9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.6M 1.5M

coloured-currencies-3.originalThe EUR/USD added 23 points to trade at 1.2430 after a day of surprisingly good data. The ECB is currently buying covered bonds and asset-backed securities and will consider a quantitative-easing package at its next meeting in January. Eurostat, the drop in industrial production in November was led by energy, down 1.9 percent, and capital goods, down 0.2 percent. It said output fell in France, Spain and Italy, while it stagnated in Germany, the region’s largest economy.
The pound trade at 1.5727 on Monday .The US dollar is expected to remain strong this morning as the US has avoided a government shutdown and approved a 1.1 trillion dollar budget in a weekend session. US dollar traders are now waiting for the FOMC meeting which begins tomorrow.
The Aussie tumbled 25 points this morning to trade at 0.8221.Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey earlier said that the underlying cash deficit will deteriorate to A$40.4 billion in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2015, compared to May’s estimate of A$29.8 billion. Australia’s government also forecast an unemployment rate of 6.5% by mid 2015, up from the May projection of 6.25% .
USD/JPY was down 0.38% to 118.33, off Friday’s highs of 119.19, and well below the seven-year peaks of 121.83 struck last Monday. The yen pushed higher against the dollar on Monday as steep falls in Japanese equities markets overnight boosted demand for safe haven assets, as concerns over falling oil prices and uncertainty ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting fuelled risk aversion.
Data Update for 15th Dec 2014

Time Currency Impact Particualar Forecast Previous
4:46am GBP Rightmove HPI m/ma -1.70%
5:20am JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 13 13
JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 14 13
6:00am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m -1.80%
7:54am AUD High Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook
13:45:00 CHF PPI m/m 0.20% -0.10%
4:30pm EUR German Buba Monthly Report
GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 3 3
7:00pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 12.1 10.2
7:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.40% 78.90%
USD Industrial Production m/m 0.80% -0.10%
8:30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 59 58

FOREX Technical Analysis Report 2nd Dec

Posted: December 2, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD was trading at 1.2456 from around 1.2454 ahead of the release of the data,as investors remained wary ahead of Thursday monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. 1The Euro rose from lows near 1.2420 to near 1.2505 and was around 1.2475 in late US trade on Monday. The Euro zone to dip into deflation in a year’s time, a key market measure showed on Monday, ratcheting up the pressure on the European Central Bank to launch new stimulus measures. Expectations for inflation have been dented by falling oil prices, which hit a five-year low on Monday and are down 40 percent since June, largely due to abundant supply. Signals for Tomorrow
The British Pound advanced against the U.S. Dollar after upbeat manufacturing data,GBP/USD remains under 2selling pressure ahead of today Construction PMI (Nov) report and Bank of England important interest rate on Thursday. U.K Manufacturing index rose to 53.5 in November showed higher reading than in October 53.2.
Aussie gains after RBA leaves rates steady at 2.5%,Australia’s third quarter current account balance showed a deficit 3of A$12.5 billion, narrower than the A$13.5 billion expected, while October building approvals jumped 11.4%, well above an expected for a 5.2% month-on-month rise, and rebounding from a 11% fall in September. AUD/USD traded at 0.8520, up 0.32%.
The dollar pushed higher against the yen on Tuesday,Prime Minister Abe dissolved parliament earlier this month, 4clearing the way for elections to be held on December 15 to seek a fresh mandate for his economic policies, which call for a weaker yen. The decision came after data showing that Japan’s economy unexpectedly fell into recession in the third quarter.
Data Update for 2nd Dec 2014

Time Currency Imact Particualr Forecast Previous
5:20am JPY Monetary Base y/y 37.20% 36.90%
5:30am NZD ANZ Commodity Prices m/m -0.80%
6:00am AUD High Building Approvals m/m 5.20% -11.20%
AUD Current Account -13.5B -13.9B
7:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y 0.80% 0.70%
9:00am AUD High Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50%
AUD High RBA Rate Statement
9:15am JPY 10-y Bond Auction 0.44|3.5
1:30pm EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 21.3K 79.2K
3:00pm GBP High Construction PMI 61.1 61.4
3:30pm EUR PPI m/m 0.30% 0.20%
18:40:00 USD FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
7:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Tentative NZD High GDT Price Index -3.10%
8:30pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.60% -0.40%
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.6M 16.5M
10:30pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks