Gold markets, once again to check the depths breaking below the $1090 level on Tuesday. We have a support at the $1080 level, which might be tested if it breaks the current level. Current scenario shows the US dollar to be relatively stronger than precious metals. Short positions would be our choice once we breach the$1080 level and a likely target might be $1060 level. Long positions are not to be entered without confirmation of sorts in the form of a supportive candle. Live Trial Signals
Silver markets dipped again on Tuesday, breaching the $13.80 level.Due to a support below, we are sceptical there might a break in this fall in the near future. At present the comfortable move to take would be a short position. There happens to be resistance extending to the $14.00 level and we believe any attempt to rally might turn into consolidation.
Crude Oil went on quite a ride on Tuesday, making a low of $29.93 per barrel which happens to be a two year low and later came back to $30.57 per barrel. Expectations are that the prices might recover to some extent in light of larger than expected draw as stated by the American Petroleum Institute. We see a resistance near the 10-day Moving Average at 34.60 level and the MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is signaling a negative momentum.
USDCAD is having potential to move upto the level of 1.5100 but the next trigger would be CRUDE OIL Prices (below $30, WTI/NYMEX)
Important FOREX Counters for 2016
The GBP/USD pair dipped below on Tuesday, touching the depths around 1.45 level. At the moment, short positions are the ones that are more comfortable to enter in.Our suggestion would be to short any rally that shows signs of exhaustion below the 1.45 level. Due to the new low, it seems the current down trend might continue for the moment. Relatively it seems it US dollar will continue to strengthen.
The EUR/USD pair seemed to be in a hurry to reach the 1.08 level as it slipped on Tuesday. The present picture suggests it might check the 1.07 level which has a history of being quite a turbulent area.it seems the pair is going to attract more buyers in the immediate future, however the 1.08 level might have more supportive characteristics than being assumed.The present outlook does suggest the overall bearishness might prevail for some time.
The AUD/USD pair went for a roller coast ride on Tuesday as it continued to fluctuate in the 0.70 level. The overwhelming fears of the gold markets falling and the softness in the Australian dollars is what has clouded this pair. Our interest in the short positions is due to a recent trend line breakout. Long positions at the moment are not comfortable to enter in.
The USD/JPY made an attempt to rally on Tuesday, however the sellers returned and formed a star like candle. This forces us to believe that the pair will continue to fall and we still have a chance of sellers returning after a short term rally. We might enter into long positions but only when we breach above the 119 level, which doesn’t look like it will happen in nearby future.
Gold prices were affected negatively with the Fed’s LMCI (Labor Market Conditions Index)rising to 2.9 points in December.Gold markets had an inside day with the high being lower than prior days high and Low being higher than previous days low which is a signal of prevalent indecisiveness in the market. We have a support in the vicinity of the 10-day Moving Average at 1,080 and a Resistance at 1113 level.The MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is giving a positive Momentum. 3 Days Trial Signals
Silver markets spent the Monday session in a volatile mood, mainly due to the associated effects of the $14 level. At this point, there is a possibility that we can rally from here. It appears we have sufficient selling pressure to prevent the market from falling.Capitalizing on that, we are currently looking to take advantage of signs of exhaustion in short term rallies. Consequently we are short term sellers.
Crude Oil is currently diving to the depth reaching lows of $30.88 i.e.nearly 7% down.At present, it seems that the down trend that occurred till now might continue in the short term. With the crude oil inventories at 80-year high; demand seems to be taking the beating. The MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is giving the momentum to be negative;hence signaling short positions.
The GBP/USD made an attempt to rally during the Monday session; however, it turned back and formed a shooting star instead. The shooting star candle happens to be located immediately above the 1.45 level,hence we are refraining from short position at the moment. We will see a spurt in selling as we breach below the 1.45 level and that is what is keeping us on our toes. On the other hand, any move upwards and we would like to have a confirmation signal before we make any decision .
The EUR/USD pair had a hard time on Monday, falling initially on Monday and later taking a U-turn to rally at the time of market close. At present, it seems that it is going to be volatile in short term with majority movement being sideways. The present level of volatility in this market is not to be taken chance with and hence we are currently sitting on the sidelines.
The AUD/USD on Monday formed a shooting star after an attempt to rally. The negativity of the shooting star is making us feel that the market might breakdown and that too significantly. At the moment, we are in the position to sell short term rallies due to the minor support that we see below. In the present market, long positions are not to be touched.
The USD/JPY on Monday closed with a shooting star after a failed attempt to rally. The move was a reflection to some degree of US stock markets which the pair is known to follow.the initial rally that we referred earlier was lost due to the sellers that stepped in later and took the market lower. Shooting star that we saw is a signal that the market is going to breakdown and if that happens, we might revisit the116 level.
The GBP/USD pair rallied during the initial hours on Monday, but took a U-turn and formed a negative candle. We have a negative omen with the shooting star appearing at the bottom of the down trend and as a result, we arrive at the conclusion that any break down below the bottom of the range will continue to push this market down towards 1.45 level. We are not entering long position until we are above the 1.50 level, Which seems highly unlikely in the present scenario. 3 Days Free Trail Signals
The EUR/USD pair got whipsawed on Monday and generated an outside day with a closing below the previous days low. The exchange rate felt the heat due to pressure despite a minor increase in the Eurozone manufacturing PMI numbers as the traders grabbed US dollar for safety from the rapid decline in the Chinese Equity market. We have a Resistance in the neighborhood of 20-day Moving Average at 1.0918, while a support is present at 1.0780. The MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is signalling negative momentum.
The AUD/USD pair slipped on Monday, and checked the depth of the ascending triangle we have been exploiting till now. At the present moment, we are not sure when the buyers might enter, hence our hesitation in taking short positions. Short positions would be tempting if cross 0.71 level and then we might as well enter them the Australian Dollar is not getting any help from the old markets which is an anomaly and as a result a breakdown may occur.
The USD/JPY pair fell during the course on Monday as Asian problems continued to pester. The Chinese lost 7% during their stock market training day, and that would have had people running towards the Japanese yen, due to it being considered a “safety currency” due to the fact its normally used as a proxy for Chinese market.
We fell below to test the 118.50 level that happens to be the bottom of the consolidation for the moth of August; however resistance in the zone forced us to turn back and form a hammer. Hence, we would be taking a long position as soon as we cross the top of the hammer.
On the flip side, if we break down below to118.50 level, that could attract the sellers and things might heat up as we reach the 116 zone. At present we are pitching for the buyers and hope for a upside breakout.
Market Review for KLCI:
The FBM KLCI index lost 39.14 points or 2.31% on Monday. The Finance Index fell 1.82% to 13902.09 points, the Properties Index dropped 1.69% to 1167.5 points and the Plantation Index down 1.53% to 7503.42 points. The market traded within a range of 34.52 points between an intra-day high of 1687.89 and a low of 1653.37 during the session. 3 Days Free Trial Signals
The KLCI extended its midday losses by ending lower 1653.37 points amid overnight losses in Wall Street. The performance of our local bourse was in tandem with most of our regional peers.
Market forecast for KLCI:
The KLCI market is expected to trade sideways in coming session, however if it breaks the level of 1650 with strong bearish sentiments followed by the dropping market volume then it may test the level of 1630 in near term.
KLCI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS :
- SKB Shutters Corp Bhd is projecting growth for the 2017 fiscal year, driven by its new insulated fire shutter and insulated fire rated steel door products.
- Penang’s construction industry is expected to stay flat this year with a value of about RM6.8bil, which is almost the same as in 2014.
- Ekovest gained six sen to RM1.13. It is linked to Tan Sri Lim Kang Hoo since his brainchild Iskandar Waterfront Holdings (IWH) makes up part of the consortium that won the Bandar Malaysia bid from 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).
- Petronas Dagangan fell 20 sen to RM24.66 with 400 shares done while Petronas Chemicals was down 11 sen to RM7.16 with 200 shares traded.
- CIMB Equities Research said integrated environmental engineering and technology provider Cypark Resources core net profit for the financial year ended Oct 31, 2015 made up 96% of its full-year forecast.
GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:
- Asian stock markets tumbled while safe haven assets and oil prices jumped Monday in the first full day’s trade of 2016 as a flare-up in tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia raised concerns about the volatile Middle East.
- China’s benchmark CSI300 share index tumbled 7 per cent on the first session of 2016 on Monday, prompting the stock exchange to halt trading for the rest of the day.The “circuit breaker” suspension mechanism first came into effect on Monday.Stocks slumped after weak factory activity surveys soured hopes that the world’s second-largest economy will enter the new year on better footing, and selling intensified throughout the day.
- Hong Kong stocks posted their biggest fall in three months on Monday, marking a gloomy start for 2016, pulled lower by slumping mainland shares and weak global markets.The Hang Seng index fell 2.7 per cent, to 21,327.12, registering its biggest one-day per centage fall since Sept. 29.
- Australian shares fell on the first trading day of 2016 as a sell off in Chinese equities dampened risk sentiment, though gains in energy and healthcare shares capped losses.The S&P/ASX 200 index dipped 0.3 per cent or 16.85 points to 5,279.0 , on disappointing factory activity surveys in China.
- The Singapore economy grew at a better-than-expected 2.0 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the last quarter of 2015, advanced estimates show, and is expected to register a full-year growth of 2.1 per cent in 2015.The growth was a clip faster than the third quarter’s 1.8 per cent, and on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded at a faster pace of 5.7 per cent compared to the 1.7 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.
- China’s factory activity contracted for the 10th straight month in December, and at a sharper pace than in November, a private survey showed, dampening hopes that the world’s second-largest economy will enter 2016 on steadier footing.The Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to 48.2 in December, below market expectations for a slight pick-up to 49.0 and down from November’s 48.6.
- China’s yuan weakened against the dollar at its open on Monday after the central bank set the guidance rate at a more than 4-1/2-year low.Prior to market open, the People’s Bank of China set the yuan midpoint rate at 6.5032 per dollar – its lowest level since May 2011, 0.15 per cent weaker than the previous fix of 6.4936.
- Oil prices jumped over 2 per cent in the first trading hours of 2016 as relations between Middle Eastern rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated following Riyadh’s execution of a prominent Shi’ite Muslim cleric.Global oil benchmark Brent climbed over 2.5 per cent and more than a dollar.
- Gold and silver climbed on the first trading day of 2016 as rising tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran spurred a return to haven assets.Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.9 per cent, for its biggest gain since Dec 21. The metal lost 10 per cent in 2015 for a third annual drop, the longest slump since 2000.
STI MARKET REVIEW:
Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) opened 0.2 percent or 4.91 points higher at 2882.53 on Monday and ended lower to -0.08 percent or points at -2.30. STI came off from its intra-day peak of 2889.14 and low of 2869.69. 3 Days Free Trial Signals
The Singapore market appears to be stuck in holiday mood because of many traders are still in leave.
Singapore will provide advance estimates of GDP for the fourth quarter and for 2015. A quarterly survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) earlier this month showed that economists expect GDP to expand by 1.4% on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, down from 1.9 per cent growth in the third quarter. The survey showed that full-year growth for 2015 was expected to be 1.9%.
STI is expected to consolidate in its next trading session. It has its support at 2857 and resistance at 2903. The RSI level is near the center line at 49.521 and if it crosses the center line then the market is expected to move up-to the level of 2910. The volume might be on the lower side due to the thin year ending and cautiousness of the investors over the high fluctuation in oil prices.
STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS
- Coal-mining group Geo Energy Resources has entered into a conditional sale-and-purchase agreement to buy the remaining 34 per cent shareholding interest in Borneo International Resources Pte Ltd that it does not already own for US$25 million.Borneo International Resources indirectly holds an effective equity interest of 98.96 per cent in PT Sungai Danau Jaya (SDJ), which holds coal-mining concession in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
- Xyec Holdings units Neutral Co and ACLOX Co will be merged with effect from 1 April 2016.The merger was proposed because both subsidiaries offer similar activities in the provision of experienced engineers to customers in major manufacturing industries, primarily IT Services.Xyec believes that the merger would lead to the more effective use of facilities and resources as well as better execution of operation currently performed by leveraging economies of scale.
- Wee Hur Holdings has acquired an office building and an adjoining piece of land in Brisbane, Australia, for A$63 million ($64.2 million).With a net let table area of about 14,000 sqm, the property is located in the Central Business District of Brisbane.
GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES:
- Asian stocks dipped on Monday amid a lack of immediate directional cues in light year-end trade, although Japanese shares managed to rise following a rebound in crude oil prices from multiple-year lows.Investors across asset markets were without some of the usual leads as markets in Europe and North America and many in Asia were closed on Friday for Christmas.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gave up earlier modest gains.
- China stocks tumbled more than 2 per cent on Monday, their biggest loss in a month, as weak industrial profit data and a looming revamp of how companies will be listed, weighed on the market.The blue-chip CSI300 index tanked 2.9 per cent, to 3,727.63, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.6 per cent, to 3,533.78 points.
- Tokyo stocks snapped a five-day losing streak in a quiet trading session Monday as bargain-buying and a weaker yen lifted the market in the last trading week of 2015.The benchmark Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange advanced 0.56 per cent, or 104.29 points, to close at 18,873.35.
- Hong Kong stocks fell on Monday, pulled lower by a slump in mainland shares on the first trading day after last week’s Christmas holiday.The Hang Seng Index fell 1.0 per cent, to 21,919.62, while the China Enterprises Index lost 1.7 per cent, to 9,789.46 points.
- Malaysian shares closed higher on Monday, with the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index gaining 7.22 points to 1,670.73.Some 1.91 billion lots, valued at RM1.72 billion, were traded. Gainers outnumbered losers 493 to 418.
- Japan’s industrial output fell 1.0 per cent in November from the previous month, data showed on Monday, suggesting that sluggish emerging market demand continues to cloud the outlook for the economy.The fall compared with a median market forecast of a 0.6 per cent drop.
- Gold held a weekly gain as investors weighed the outlook for inflation in the US for clues on the likely pace of interest rate increases by the the Federal Reserve in 2016.The metal gained 0.9 per cent last week.
- Oil prices fell on Monday after the long Christmas weekend, with US crudes defending a newly gained premium over internationally traded Brent contracts.Front-month US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were trading at US$37.91 per tonne, down 19 cents from their last settlement.Brent was down 18 cents at US$17.71 a barrel, meaning that US crude defended a premium it gained over the globally traded benchmark last week.
- The dollar inched away from a two-month low against the yen on Monday, while a resumption in falls in oil prices took linked currencies including the Australian and Canadian dollars around a third of a percent lower.Australia and the key London market in currencies were among those still closed for local holidays.
The GBP/USD made a spike from the 1.48 zone on Wednesday. However, the resistive nature of $1.49 level has recently been quite frequently exhibited, hence we suspect the downtrend might continue for the moment. Currently we are looking to make profits through short positions. 1.50 level might be considered as a ceiling, hence our interest in Long positions will be stirred up only after that. 3 Days Free Trail Signals
The EUR/USD took a dip in light of stronger than expected U.S. New Home Sales report. The pair found a support in the vicinity of the 10-day Moving Average at 1.0920. We see a resistance at 1.1059, that also happens to be in the zone of December highs. Among the indicators, RSI(Relative Strength Index) happens to be in the neutral zone and MACD(Moving Average Convergence Divergence) also isn’t giving positive signals.
The AUD/USD spent the entire session on Wednesday exhibiting pendulum motion as the 0.72 level seems to be a sticky one for the pair. Take a look at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average, it is essentially flat and hardly any defined trends happen to be there. For the moment, it is better to stay away from this pair due to the lack of volatility at present.
The USD/JPY pair had a lazy Wednesday as it continued with its stay in the 120.50 level. Any noise at this level is vibrated to the 118.50 level. At present, we are in search of a good opportunity to take a Long position and a supportive candle might give us the confidence that we lack at the moment. Any chances of a short position are below the 118.50 zone. However, it seems this might take a while before it occurs.
WEEKLY WRAP OF STI
Straits Times Index (STI) opened lower at 2832.44 on Monday and ended higher to this week by recovering the gap down at the week start by closing at 2852.84. 3 Days Free Trial Signals
STI came off from its weekly peak of 2857.39 and low of 2831.10 this week and it keep on rising in 4 consecutive working days in this week which brought which recovered the fall on the opening at the starting of this week on Monday. Wall Street’s sudden slump on Thursday suggests that markets are still locked in monetary expansion mode, preferring rates to remain depressed. the impact here was rises for the Straits Times Index before and immediately after the FOMC meeting.
MARKET FORECAST FOR WEEK AHEAD
STI is expected to be in positive sentiment next week. STI has taken support near 2757 and expected to maintain this support next week as well. It has its resistance at 2941. If it breaks this resistance than it might go up to 2950.
STI COUNTER SPECIFIC NEWS
- MM-2 Asia has entered into an agreement to acquire a majority stake in Millinillion, a tech start-up developing interactive solutions for digital users globally.Millinillion is a company specializing in developing Business to Consumer (B2C) mobile applications and digital interactive solutions for clients.MM-2 and Millinillion will jointly develop a series of mobile applications in data-based marketing, music and industry talent pool management.
- Marine fabrication and engineering firm Triyards seems keen to divorce from the embattled oil & gas industry this year.The company has won contracts worth US$45.5 million ($64.5 million) to build vessels that have nothing to do with oil & gas, an industry suffering falling commodity prices and order cancellations.Other firms in the sector, such as SembCorp Marine and Keppel Corp have seen their share prices suffer this year amid falling demand for their rigs and vessels.
- Q&M Dental Group (Singapore) plans to restructure its stake in Qinhuangdao Aidite High Technical Ceramic Co ahead of a possible listing of the China-based manufacturing subsidiary.As part of the restructuring, Aidite will reduce its equity capital to 23.97 million yuan from 47 million yuan.
- Golden Land Property Development shareholders have approved Frasers Centrepoint’s (FCL’s) proposed acquisition of 29.5% of its enlarged share capital through a 4.97 billion baht ($196 million) new capital injection.Golden Land is one of the country’s leading real estate developers engaged in residential and commercial property development, as well as property management and property advisory services.
- Mencast Holdings says its energy services division has renewed its service contract with the Asian headquarter of an oil supermajor for environmental remediation services for another three years.The contract also includes the option for an extension for a further two years.Another exiting long-term contract with the same client has also been revised to include additional services and increased volumes for the remainder of its term.
- CMC Infocomm expects to report a net loss for 1H2016.The net loss was primarily due to substantial one-off professional fees incurred in relation to the initial public offering exercise when after the company was listed on the Catalist board .In addition, the group recorded an increase in overhead expenses, mainly payroll expenses due to additional headcount to support the execution of the group’s expansion into new and complementary businesses in Singapore and Malaysia.Shares in CMC Infocomm closed flat at 15.1 cents.
GLOBAL FACTORS AND WORLD INDICES
Asian shares took their cue from Wall Street and slipped on Friday, and Japanese stocks slumped after briefly jumping on the central bank’s statement that it would expand parts of its stimulus programme.
China stocks held nearly steady on Friday, capping a dramatic week that witnessed a strong relief rally in the previous session following an expected rise in US interest rates.Investors are now refocusing on economic fundamentals, with a key central government economic meeting that starts on Friday likely to offer the market fresh cues for directions.The blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.3 per cent, to 3,767.91.
Japanese stocks fell on Friday in a session that turned volatile after the Bank of Japan announced it would maintain its massive stimulus programme’s base money target while expanding the types of assets it purchases.The benchmark index was down 1.9 per cent to 18,986.80, and had lost 1.3 per cent for the week.
Hong Kong stocks ended Friday slightly lower, as many sectors corrected after the previous session’s relief rally following the long-expected US interest rate hike.The Hang Seng index fell 0.5 per cent, to 21,755.56, while the China Enterprises Index lost 0.3 per cent, to 9,634.41 points.
European stock markets slid at the start of trading on Friday as a rally inspired by the US interest rate hike petered out heading into the weekend break.London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index dropped 0.8 per cent to 6,056.9 points.
China’s ravenous appetite for overseas assets is powering a record year for Asian dealmaking, with deal volumes in the region surpassing the US$1 trillion mark annually for the first time.Acquisitions involving companies in the Asia Pacific region rose 55 per cent in 2015 to US$1.2 trillion.Chinese buyers snapped up premier assets, ranging from the world’s biggest luggage handler to Italian tire brand Pirelli & C SpA, and accounted for about half the deals from the region.
Singdollar projected to decline most in 2016 amongst Asian currencies as the growth in Asia’s developing economies will slow to 6.4 per cent next year from 6.5 per cent in 2015, with China’s expansion decelerating to 6.3 per cent from 6.8 per cent. That means Asian central banks will need to further cut interest rates while the Fed gradually tightens, resulting in outflows and weaker currencies.
The US dollar pushed higher against other major currencies on increasingly bullish sentiment about the greenback following the Federal Reserve’s historic decision to lift US interest rates.
Crude prices sank deeper in Asian trading on Friday after the US oil benchmark closed at its lowest level since February 2009 on worsening oversupply concerns and a stronger dollar.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for January delivery was trading at US$34.77 per barrel, 18 cents off its close of US$34.95 in New York.
- Gold steadied on Friday but largely kept losses made a day earlier when the metal suffered its biggest slide in five months after U.S. interest rates were raised for the first time in nearly a decade and the dollar surged.Spot gold ticked up 0.3 percent to $1,054.40 an ounce by 0327 GMT, following a 2 percent slide in the previous session, its biggest one day slide since July. The metal is down nearly 2 percent for the week in its worst performance in six weeks.