Posts Tagged ‘Comex Commodity Tips’

GOLD
Gold markets initially fell during the course of the day on Monday, but found enough support just above the 1200 level to bounce and form a relatively supportive candle. signalsWe believe that Gold prices are stuck between 1200 and 1215, so at this point in time we are simply waiting for it to move out of this range. If gold breaks 1215 level, we feel that, we would be buyers and aiming for the 1230 handle.
SILVER
Silver markets as you can see did very little during the session on Monday, as we continue to respect the $17 level for its supportive qualities. Because of this, we believe that buying short-term calls every time thie market gets close to the $17 level is probably the best way to play with this market right now. We would not be bothered with the futures market right now, and wait for the markets to break $17 level.
CRUDE
The light sweet crude market initially fell during the course of the day on Monday, testing the $59 level for support. And it was successful in founding it there and making a hammer to take enough bounce from those levels. This market seems to be in a bit of a crossroads. With that, we are a bit more comfortable buying on a break above the top of the hammer for the session on Monday, but quite frankly, we can’t deny the fact that it is going to be highly volatile. If we break the $58 level below though, things will get interesting, and we could find ourselves heading towards the $55 handle.

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Gold
Gold market fell during the session on Wednesday, testing the $1200 level for support. With this, the market bounced enough to form a hammer and it appears that the market is trying to break above the $1220 level. However,until we break above the $1220 levelor below the $1180 level the market will continue to consolidate.
SILVER
The silver markets fell initially during the session on Wednesday, but found enough support at the $16.50 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. However, we see a significant amount of resistance near the $17 level so we are not sure about buying until this level. Because of this, we can say that the market would be extraordinarily volatile. With that, we are on the sidelines but recognize the area between $17 and $17.50 to be very important.
CRUDE
The light sweet crude market rose up rather drastically during the session on Wednesday as the US dollar got pummelled. With this, the market ended up breaking above the recent resistance, but remains below the $60 level. The market has to get above the $60 level in order to get very bullish of this market for any real length of time, so at this point time we are on the sidelines.

GOLDImage
Gold price rose to the three week high as the increasing tension in Ukraine and finally break the level of $1300, giving a good sustain over the level gave closing at 1309 as the yesterday’s trading it seems that now the buying trend had come in gold after a long time and now gold head to the level of 1330
Forecast
A little pullback in gold can give a buying pressure in commodity to raise for the next resistance, today gold can trade in a range of 1295 to 1313.
SILVER
ImageHolding of biggest silver backed ETF (exchange traded fund), New York stood at 10,309 tonnes unchanged from previous day. Strongly following the gold movement Silver spot gained 0.4% in yesterday’s trading session, as traders were focus on the Ukraine tension & considering the slowdown in China slowdown the industrial demand of Silver from China.
Forecast
Technically Silver took a upside yesterday but failed to close higher and gave the formation of Shooting Star on chart and according to the Shooting Star a chance of little pull back can be seen in Silver on a major range support of $19.350 will continue with the resistance of $19.945
CRUDE Image
Crude oil price fell down in yesterday’s session the lower demand from China & Japan as supported the crude oil price to go more down U.S. commercial crude oil and refined product inventories were forecast to have increased last week, with crude stocks hitting a record high for the third week in a row
Forecast
A little downfall in Crude Oil price can be marked in the today’s session and it can trade in a range of 98 to 100
TODAY’S DAY RANGE

COMMODITY S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1300 1290 1308 1320
SILVER 19.490 18.850 19.850 20.500
CRUDE 99 98 100 100.8

DAY’S HIGHLIGHT

  • Important data for today would be Trade balance, PMI & Unemployment Change

  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI moved to 55.2 vs 53.1 prev.

  • HSBC final manufacturing PMI moved to 48.1 else previously it was 48.3 that increase the worry for Chinese Economy.

Weekly Technical view on STI
This was the week in which only green candle was formed by STI as there was not a major change in the trading range of STI it opened at 3071 and made a high of 3101 where gave the closing at the same level as it was for the last week candle @3073.
Long Legged Doji was formed by this week candle. As it has long upper & lower shadow with Doji as the shorter trading range in the middle
Weekly wrap of STI:

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN 3071.87
HIGH 3101.86
LOW 3053.59
CLOSE 3073.39
CHANGE (In Points) 0.33
% CHANGE 0.010
Macroeconomic factors:
  • A good jump in the Trade Confidence Index as it’s the highest in two years at 115 i.e. 10 points. Announced by the HSBC
  • Home price inflation in China slowed in Feb also as it’s the continuous second month where average for new home price rose 8.7% for the 70 major cities in China. If calculated for MOM basis price rose 0.3% for Feb.
  • Statement issued by the Finance Ministry of Singapore on Tuesday said (SMEs) small medium enterprises will receive almost Q3 of sum disbursed, which calculated over 74000 employers will be receiving around S$800 Million by wage credit scheme, pay outs by March 31.
  • SGX is about to revise the fee structure which will be applicable from 2nd May 2014 as to make the trading more cost effective the clearing fee would be reduced by one fifth from 0.04% to 0.325% of contract value.
  • Economists forecasted 3.8% of Growth lower than expected as 3.9%
Market Forecast for week ahead:
  • As the performance of the STI was in a very range bound for this week and closing for the week was as the same for the last week. STI formed the Long Legged Doji candle for this week.
  • Studding Bollinger bands chart pattern it’s very clear that the market is in a very range bound conditions as its not able to maintain itself above 3100 and closed at 3073.
  • Technically STI can fall for multiple support and it would be possible by the global economic factor & market sentiment to sustain above the mark of 3100.
Technical Indicators:
MACD is moving below the base and performing flat where RSI is at 44.51 CCI is also going down and is @ -52
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3
3040 3000 2955 3130 3170 3210
Weekly wrap of KLCI:
KLCI closed Positive this week as it makes the green candle for this week after the red weekly candle.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed in this week, as Green candle formed for this week was followed by the red candle of the last week where the open & close for this week was formed in the range of the last week candle.
 
Weekly Technical view on KLCI
KLCI WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN 1806.15
HIGH 1821.88
LOW 1802.88
CLOSE 1820.48
CHANGE (In Points) 15.36
% CHANGE 0.850
Market Forecast for week ahead:
  • KLCI took the up move for this week after the two continuous down trend for two weeks 
  • The 50 days EMA’ is trading at 1778 where 20 days EMA is at 1814.
  • For the coming week the KLCI can take a upside movement but on the envelope channel indicator it seems consolidate in the range of 1790 to 1835
Technical Indicators:
The RSI is moving exactly above the base line at 53.92 else CCI is performing at -21
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3
1805 1795 1780 1835 1850 1870
GOLD
Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.
 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.
Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week
Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1235 1231 1245 1254
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
 
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.
Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.
The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.
Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.
The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.93 19.81 20.26 20.49
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
  
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.in December.
Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3241 3.3058 3.3651 3.3878
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday’s low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December. Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation’s factories will hike demand for energy.
Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.
Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 93.49 92.45 94.53 95.10
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7:00pm Building Permits 1.01M 1.01M STRONG
8:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.5 83.47 STRONG
8:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.93M 3.97M STRONG
Building Permits
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders
Care
It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Source University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders
Care
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
JOLTS Job Openings
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes It’s released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;

SILVER
Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.97/20.02, which was also the day’s low. It followed gold to a high of 20.41/20.46 before concluding the day at 20.36/20.41.
Silver closed higher today for the third session in a row, at 20.41, but has yet to break its sideways range. Resistance is at the range high at 20.51. Support is at the December 31 low of 18.83. 
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower for the third consecutive session, at current 61.43. The ratio remains in an uptrend since September 2013, but is poised to test that uptrend which currently comes in around 60.90. Generally speaking, a declining gold-silver ratio is bullish for the metals (i.e., silver should outperform gold in an uptrend). We are closely watching the uptrend line for a clear breach.
 Technical Levels

  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 20.25 20.05 20.50 20.90CRUDE
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
 
GOLD
Gold moved marginally lower overnight to open at the session low of 1244.25/1245.25. Following surprisingly weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday, the metal drew buying interest today against a weaker dollar to post a high of 1253.00/1254.00 amidst diminishing concerns that the Fed will speed up tapering of its bond-buying program. It concluded the day at 1251.50/1252.50.
Gold closed higher today at 1252, breaking up through the previous recent high at 1248. Positive momentum in gold now exceeds negative momentum on the daily chart, and this is good news for the metal. There is an uptrend in the daily chart providing support; which currently comes in at 1231. Gold has made a successive higher low and now a higher high – taking out the December high at 1268 would be a bullish signal.
 Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1248 1232 1258 1267
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
COPPER
Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of its widespread uses across industries. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. On the Comexdivision of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.323 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.55%. Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.322 a pound and USD3.367 a pound.
The March contract ended Friday’s session up 1.29% to settle at USD3.341 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.289 a pound, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD3.377 a pound, the high from January 8. The U.S. economy added just 74,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs.Copper futures fell on Monday, after disappointing U.S. jobs data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery.
The disappointing data cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The central bank cited a stronger labor market in its decision to taper its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December to USD75 billion-a-month.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3270 3.3030 3.3550 3.3750
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded flat at USD92.03 a barrel up 0.03% during Asia morning trade. On Monday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD91.74 a barrel and a high of USD92.03 a barrel.
Talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement on a six-month deal that will limit advancements in Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran starting Jan. 20.
In November, Iran pledged to eliminate its stocks of 20% enriched uranium within six months and limit the enrichment of uranium to 5%.
Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market over the past two years.
Soft U.S. jobs numbers released Friday also pressured prices lower.
Crude oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday during Asian trading hours as markets digested the weekend reports that Iran has agreed on a multilateral plan that would curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in a deal that could allow it to resume exports and add to global supply.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 91.30 91.00 92.00 92.50
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4% STRONG
7:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.2% STRONG
7:00pm Import Prices m/m -0.6% 0.3% MEDIUM000
8:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.7% 0.4% MEDIUM
11:15pm FOMC Member Plosser Speak     MEDIUM
11:50pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks     MEDIUM
Core Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called Retail Sales Ex Autos;
Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders
Care
It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called Advance Retail Sales;
Import Prices m/m
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics(latest release)
Measures Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders
Care
It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called Import Price Index;

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1235.00/1236.00. Shortly after open, it touched a low of 1227.25/1228.25 before surging to the day’s high of 1248.50/1249.50 on dollar weakness following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data with non-farm payrolls adding a meagre 74k jobs in December against the 196k forecasted by economists. The metal closed the day at 1247.00/1248.00.
Gold closed higher this week at 1247, the third up-week in a row. While the test of the major low at 1180 was encouraging last week, it is too early to call an end to the strong downtrend that has been in place since the high of 1921 in 2011. 
The 50% retracement of the rally from 2008 to 2011 provides resistance; this is at 1301. There is strong support at the 1180 low. We are inclined to think that this is simply a correction; and that we will retest the 1180 low and achieve the technical target of 1155 (61.8% retracement of the long-term rally). We would be stopped out of this view should gold rally past 1416, the last major high.
Gold rose after disappointing U.S. jobs data stirred speculation Fed will take a gradual approach to tapering its bond-buying stimulus this year.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 74,000 in December, the smallest increase since January 2011, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent
Dollar weakened fueling expectations for the Federal Reserve to trim its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program at a slower pace than once expected.
Technical Levels

  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1232 1218 1254 1262

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.76/19.81. It briefly touched a low of 19.65/19.70 before reaching a high of 20.24/20.29 on the back of gold prior to concluding the session at 20.21/20.26.
Silver closed unchanged this week at 20.21 and has been trading sideways for the past six weeks. There is resistance from a downtrend that has been in place since August, which currently comes in at 20.85. Resistance from the larger downtrend, in place since the 2011 high of 49.79, comes in at 23.63. The trend remains bearish.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 61.83. Support from the uptrend currently comes in at 60.18. There is resistance at 67.46, the last major high. The trend remains bullish.
Silver rose as investors recalibrated their expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a much weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, well below expectations for a 196,000 increase.
Fed asset purchases tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus making prices an attractive hedge.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.76 19.31 20.46 20.71
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
COPPER
Comex, copper for March delivery jumped 1.29% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.341 a pound. Prices of the industrial metal lost 1.3% on Thursday to end at USD3.299 a pound. Comex copper prices shed 0.26% on the week.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3 percent in December on a month earlier propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases, but arrivals still fell 2.3 percent in 2013 due to lower term bookings of refined metal. China’s copper imports rose 29 percent to 441,291 tons last month from a year earlier, government data showed today. Total imports expanded 8.3 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent. Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai are at the lowest since November 2012, with LME inventories dropping for a 46th day.
Copper rose as traders bet that an apparent slowdown in U.S. hiring could tweak Fed’s monetary policy and increase the appeal of industrial commodities.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3% in December propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases
Data showed China’s export growth weakened in December–raising concerns about metal demand if economic growth isn’t sustained.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3051 3.2688 3.3621 3.3828
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.
Crude oil pricecs rose during Asian trading on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fanned speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale down its bond-buying program at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
Crudeoil settled flat recovering from lows on reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield stoked supply concerns.
China’s crude oil imports rose 13 percent in December from a year ago to a record 6.31 million barrels per day as two big refineries reopened.
 Crude demand for this year could rebound slightly as new refineries open, though growth may be capped by a lack of momentum in the broader economy.
 Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 92.00 91.30 93.40 94.08
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2