Posts Tagged ‘Comex Copper Trading Tips’

GOLD
Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.
 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.
Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week
Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1235 1231 1245 1254
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
 
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.
Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.
The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.
Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.
The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.
World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.93 19.81 20.26 20.49
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
  
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.in December.
Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3241 3.3058 3.3651 3.3878
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday’s low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December. Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation’s factories will hike demand for energy.
Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.
Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 93.49 92.45 94.53 95.10
Commodity Contract – S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7:00pm Building Permits 1.01M 1.01M STRONG
8:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 82.5 83.47 STRONG
8:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 3.93M 3.97M STRONG
Building Permits
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders
Care
It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Source University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders
Care
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
JOLTS Job Openings
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes It’s released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;

SILVER
Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.97/20.02, which was also the day’s low. It followed gold to a high of 20.41/20.46 before concluding the day at 20.36/20.41.
Silver closed higher today for the third session in a row, at 20.41, but has yet to break its sideways range. Resistance is at the range high at 20.51. Support is at the December 31 low of 18.83. 
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower for the third consecutive session, at current 61.43. The ratio remains in an uptrend since September 2013, but is poised to test that uptrend which currently comes in around 60.90. Generally speaking, a declining gold-silver ratio is bullish for the metals (i.e., silver should outperform gold in an uptrend). We are closely watching the uptrend line for a clear breach.
 Technical Levels

  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 20.25 20.05 20.50 20.90CRUDE
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
 
GOLD
Gold moved marginally lower overnight to open at the session low of 1244.25/1245.25. Following surprisingly weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday, the metal drew buying interest today against a weaker dollar to post a high of 1253.00/1254.00 amidst diminishing concerns that the Fed will speed up tapering of its bond-buying program. It concluded the day at 1251.50/1252.50.
Gold closed higher today at 1252, breaking up through the previous recent high at 1248. Positive momentum in gold now exceeds negative momentum on the daily chart, and this is good news for the metal. There is an uptrend in the daily chart providing support; which currently comes in at 1231. Gold has made a successive higher low and now a higher high – taking out the December high at 1268 would be a bullish signal.
 Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1248 1232 1258 1267
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
COPPER
Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of its widespread uses across industries. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. On the Comexdivision of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.323 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.55%. Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.322 a pound and USD3.367 a pound.
The March contract ended Friday’s session up 1.29% to settle at USD3.341 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.289 a pound, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD3.377 a pound, the high from January 8. The U.S. economy added just 74,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs.Copper futures fell on Monday, after disappointing U.S. jobs data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery.
The disappointing data cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The central bank cited a stronger labor market in its decision to taper its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December to USD75 billion-a-month.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3270 3.3030 3.3550 3.3750
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded flat at USD92.03 a barrel up 0.03% during Asia morning trade. On Monday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD91.74 a barrel and a high of USD92.03 a barrel.
Talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement on a six-month deal that will limit advancements in Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran starting Jan. 20.
In November, Iran pledged to eliminate its stocks of 20% enriched uranium within six months and limit the enrichment of uranium to 5%.
Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market over the past two years.
Soft U.S. jobs numbers released Friday also pressured prices lower.
Crude oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday during Asian trading hours as markets digested the weekend reports that Iran has agreed on a multilateral plan that would curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in a deal that could allow it to resume exports and add to global supply.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 91.30 91.00 92.00 92.50
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4% STRONG
7:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.2% STRONG
7:00pm Import Prices m/m -0.6% 0.3% MEDIUM000
8:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.7% 0.4% MEDIUM
11:15pm FOMC Member Plosser Speak     MEDIUM
11:50pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks     MEDIUM
Core Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called Retail Sales Ex Autos;
Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders
Care
It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called Advance Retail Sales;
Import Prices m/m
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics(latest release)
Measures Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders
Care
It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called Import Price Index;

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1235.00/1236.00. Shortly after open, it touched a low of 1227.25/1228.25 before surging to the day’s high of 1248.50/1249.50 on dollar weakness following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data with non-farm payrolls adding a meagre 74k jobs in December against the 196k forecasted by economists. The metal closed the day at 1247.00/1248.00.
Gold closed higher this week at 1247, the third up-week in a row. While the test of the major low at 1180 was encouraging last week, it is too early to call an end to the strong downtrend that has been in place since the high of 1921 in 2011. 
The 50% retracement of the rally from 2008 to 2011 provides resistance; this is at 1301. There is strong support at the 1180 low. We are inclined to think that this is simply a correction; and that we will retest the 1180 low and achieve the technical target of 1155 (61.8% retracement of the long-term rally). We would be stopped out of this view should gold rally past 1416, the last major high.
Gold rose after disappointing U.S. jobs data stirred speculation Fed will take a gradual approach to tapering its bond-buying stimulus this year.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 74,000 in December, the smallest increase since January 2011, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent
Dollar weakened fueling expectations for the Federal Reserve to trim its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program at a slower pace than once expected.
Technical Levels

  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1232 1218 1254 1262

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.76/19.81. It briefly touched a low of 19.65/19.70 before reaching a high of 20.24/20.29 on the back of gold prior to concluding the session at 20.21/20.26.
Silver closed unchanged this week at 20.21 and has been trading sideways for the past six weeks. There is resistance from a downtrend that has been in place since August, which currently comes in at 20.85. Resistance from the larger downtrend, in place since the 2011 high of 49.79, comes in at 23.63. The trend remains bearish.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 61.83. Support from the uptrend currently comes in at 60.18. There is resistance at 67.46, the last major high. The trend remains bullish.
Silver rose as investors recalibrated their expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a much weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, well below expectations for a 196,000 increase.
Fed asset purchases tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus making prices an attractive hedge.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.76 19.31 20.46 20.71
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
COPPER
Comex, copper for March delivery jumped 1.29% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.341 a pound. Prices of the industrial metal lost 1.3% on Thursday to end at USD3.299 a pound. Comex copper prices shed 0.26% on the week.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3 percent in December on a month earlier propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases, but arrivals still fell 2.3 percent in 2013 due to lower term bookings of refined metal. China’s copper imports rose 29 percent to 441,291 tons last month from a year earlier, government data showed today. Total imports expanded 8.3 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent. Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai are at the lowest since November 2012, with LME inventories dropping for a 46th day.
Copper rose as traders bet that an apparent slowdown in U.S. hiring could tweak Fed’s monetary policy and increase the appeal of industrial commodities.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3% in December propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases
Data showed China’s export growth weakened in December–raising concerns about metal demand if economic growth isn’t sustained.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3051 3.2688 3.3621 3.3828
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 
CRUDE
The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.
Crude oil pricecs rose during Asian trading on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fanned speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale down its bond-buying program at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
Crudeoil settled flat recovering from lows on reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield stoked supply concerns.
China’s crude oil imports rose 13 percent in December from a year ago to a record 6.31 million barrels per day as two big refineries reopened.
 Crude demand for this year could rebound slightly as new refineries open, though growth may be capped by a lack of momentum in the broader economy.
 Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 92.00 91.30 93.40 94.08
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at the session low of  1210.00/1211.00. The metal then climbed to a high of  1218.75/1219.75 on low volumes as the Euro appreciated against  the Dollar and major world equities rallied while U.S. government  bond yields rose to a two-and-a-half year high of 3.02 percent,  which is indicative of an improving economy and supports  expectations that the Fed will continue with tapering of its  monthly bond buying program. Quiet trading in the afternoon led  the metal to close at 1214.50/1215.50.
Gold closed slightly higher on the week at 1214; the metal has  been alternating between lower and higher weekly closes for the  past eight weeks. However, the down candles have been stronger  than the up ones, taking us from 1361 in early November to a low  of 1187. The major low of 1180 is likely to be tested. From an  Elliott Wave perspective, we feel we are in Wave C, the last wave  of the corrective 3-wave sequence off the 1921 high in September  2011. Possible targets for Wave C are 1155, which is the 61.8%  retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend; or 1044, which is the  bottom of Wave 4 of this same uptrend. RSI is at 35.2, with  support just above 20, thus gold has further to go before it  reaches ‘oversold’ levels.
Gold settled flat as prices recovered from lows on the back of increased physical demand.
Expectations that the U.S. economy can stand on its own as monetary stimulus is withdrawn were buoyed by data showing a decrease in weekly jobless claims
SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.00 tonnes to 801.22 tonnes from 804.22 tonnes. 
Technical Levels

  S1 S2 S3 S4
GOLD 1205 1200 1218 1221
Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.88/19.93, which was  also the low of the day. It followed gold to a high of 20.09/20.14  prior to concluding the session at 20.00/20.05.
Silver closed higher this week at 20.05, trading inside of last  week’s range. Support is at 18.23 from the 2013 low. The trend  remains bearish, and a test of this level is likely. There is resistance  from the weekly downtrend off the August 2013 high, which  currently comes in at 21.30.
Silver ended with gains amid short covering after the dollar retreated further but remained on track for its annual loss as rallies in equities dented its appeal.
Gains were limited on sentiments that Fed’s plans to trim USD10 billion in monthly bond purchases in January will lead to further cuts to the stimulus program.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 50.90 tonnes to 9958.64 tonnes from 10009.54 tonnes. 
Technical Levels

  S1 S2 S3 S4
SILVER 19.70 19.55 20.04 20.27
Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2
 

COPPER
Copper settled down -0.38% at 468.2 on profit booking after gaining due to tightening supplies and expectations that economic recovery in China will help boost demand. China’s economic growth is likely to come in at 7.6 percent this year, according to a cabinet report, just above the government’s target of 7.5 percent and slightly below last year’s 7.7 percent. Its industrial output is likely to grow by about 9.8 percent in 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said.Buying in China is expected to wind down during the Lunar New Year holidays in January. Also supporting copper prices has been a lack of readily available metal due to falling exchange stocks. The latest LME data showed copper stocks in exchange-registered warehouses dropped to their lowest since January at 370,950 tonnes. Still, ample copper concentrate seen flowing into the market next year will eventually feed into more stocks of refined copper, swelling supply and overhanging prices.
Copper dropped on profit booking after gaining due to tightening supplies and expectations that economic recovery in China will help boost demand.
State Reserves Bureau (SRB) is working on plans to buy about 300,000 tonnes of copper
Buying in China is expected to wind down during the Lunar New Year holidays in January. 
Technical Levels

  S1 S2 S3 S4
COPPER 3.4346 3.3993 3.4876 3.5053
Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2
 

CRUDE
 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.77% on Friday to settle the week at USD100.32 a barrel by close of trade. U.S. oil prices rose to a session high of USD100.75 a barrel earlier, the strongest level since October 21.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.05 a barrel, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD101.22 a barrel, the high from October 21.
The February contract settled 0.33% higher on Thursday to end at USD99.55 a barrel. On the week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, rose 0.99%.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report released Friday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels in the week ended December 20, compared to expectations for a decline of 2.3 million barrels.
New York-traded crude oil futures ended the week at a nine-week high on Friday, climbing above the key USD100-a-barrel level after government data showed that U.S. oil supplies fell more-than-expected last week.
Crude gained driven by the fourth straight weekly decline in oil inventories and also drew support from civil unrest in Africa that has cut off supplies.
EIA said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -4.731M, from -2.941M in the preceding month.
US crude stocks fall even as output hits 1988 high –EIA
Technical Levels

  S1 S2 S3 S4
CRUDE 99.54 98.78 100.90 101.52

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data
DATE 30.12.13
TIME :IST 8.30P.M
DATA Pending Home Sales m/m
PRV -0.6%
EXP 1.1%
IMPACT STRONG
Pending Home Sales m/m
Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release Jan 30, 2014
FF Notes This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it’s more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called Pending Resales;
Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)

GOLD
Gold edged higher overnight to open at 1201.00/1202.00. It  dropped slightly to a low of 1200.00/1201.00 before climbing to a  high of 1205.50/1206.50 on low volumes ahead of Christmas as  positive U.S. data pointed to an increase in sales of durable goods  while the monthly home price index increased slightly. The metal  traded within range for the rest of the day before finally closing at  1204.00/1205.00.

Gold closed higher today at 1204, reversing yesterday’s losses. The  metal remains in a bearish trend, support is at the major low of  1180, with resistance at the high from Thursday, December 19th  around 1227. The last signal in MACD on the daily chart was a sell  signal on December 19th.
Gold rose as bearish traders continued to leave the market ahead of the year’s end and a weaker dollar burnished gold’s allure to foreign buyers.
Gold set for its biggest annual loss in three decades as investors switch to rallying equities on optimism about a global economic recovery.
SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings declined 0.19 percent to 804.22 tonnes on Thursday from 805.72 tonnes on Tuesday.

Technical Levels

S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1208 1203 1217 1221

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

 SILVER
Silver remained unchanged overnight to open at 19.40/19.45,  which was also the low of the day. Thereafter, it followed gold to a  high of 19.55/19.60 before concluding the day at 19.52/19.57.
Silver closed very slightly higher at 19.52, grinding out three days  of small gains, but all inside the range from December 19th. This is  not indicative of bullish price action, and we expect the metal to  retest the major low of 18.90, followed by a test of the 18.22 low  from June. Resistance is at the December 19th high around 19.92.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 61.74. Support is  at 61.06, the 38.2% retracement of the July-August downtrend.  Resistance is at 62.28, the 50% retracement level
Silver rose after data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell more-than-expected.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a month, a hopeful sign for the labour market
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended December 14 rose to 2.923 million from 2.877 million in the preceding week.

Technical Levels

S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.82 19.71 20.04 20.27

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.375 a pound during U.S. morning trade, flat on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.368 a pound and USD3.375 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.304 a pound, the low from December 24 and resistance at USD3.420 a pound, the high from December 24 and the strongest level since April 12.

The March contract surged to an eight-month high of USD3.420 a pound on Tuesday, before settling at USD3.374 a pound, up 2.01%.
Copper futures were little changed in subdued trade on Thursday, with volumes expected to remain light as holidays in many countries limit activity.
Copper rose on growing confidence about the global economy, year-end covering and the prospect of purchases from China’s state reserves.
Strong U.S. economic data and a bullish growth forecast for China, fuelled hopes about stronger demand for copper and other industrial metals.
Japan’s output of rolled copper product rose to 67,751 tonnes in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier.

Technical Levels

S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.4298 3.4101 3.4590 3.4690

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD99.39 a barrel at time of writing falling 0.16%.
It earlier traded at a session low USD99.38 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD98.53 and resistance at USD99.76.

US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.18% to trade at USD80.52.
Elsewhere on the ICE, Brent oil for February delivery fell 0.26% to trade at USD111.70 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent oil and Crude oil contracts standing at USD12.31 a barrel..
Crude oil futures were lower in Asian trading hours on Friday.
Crude oil gained boosted by demand for refined products after industry data earlier this week showed a steep decline in gasoline and distillate inventories.
Supply outages in Africa are also in focus and added some geopolitical risk premium to prices.
Today crude oil inventories: EXP: -1.9M PREV: -2.9M. Actual is at 9.30PM.

 Technical Levels

S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 99.20 98.78 99.81 100.46

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
9.30P.M Crude Oil Inventories -2.9m -1.9m MEDIUM

Crude Oil Inventories

Source Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect No consistent effect – there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release Jan 3, 2014
FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector;
Why Traders
Care
It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand Energy Information Administration (EIA);

GOLD
Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1231.50/1232.50. It  climbed to a high of 1242.50/1243.50 as the U.S. Core Price Index  remained flat and global stocks dipped. It then declined to a low of 1227.00/1228.00 as investors turned cautious ahead of the  two-day FOMC meeting starting today as speculation continues on  the timing of the tapering down of the Fed’s monthly bond-buying  program. The metal concluded the day at 1230.50/1231.50.
Gold closed lower today at 1230, continuing to trade in its  sideways range. Support is at the recent 1210 low, and resistance  is at the recent 1268 high. The bear trend remains in place, thus  there is still risk of a test of the major 1180 low.
Gold dropped as investors shed some bullish bets on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be poised to trim its bullion-friendly economic stimulus
Expectations that Fed will curtail its stimulus programme, which has driven gold prices higher by pressuring interest rates and fuelling fears of inflation
SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings fell 2.08 tonnes to 816.82 tonnes from 818.90 tonnes.

Technical Levels
SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1228 1218 1237 1243
SILVER 19.77 19.47 20.00 20.30
COPPER 3.3585 3.3500 3.3770 3.3870
CRUDE 96.84 95.47 97.74 98.27

SILVER
Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.73/19.78. It surged to a  high of 20.11/20.16 before declining to a low of 19.73/19.78 on  the back of gold and concluded the session at 19.85/19.90.
Silver also closed lower, at 19.85. Support is at the recent low of  18.90, and resistance is at the recent 20.51 high. Although the  metal made a “higher low” at 19.30 last week, it is much too early  to conclude that silver is trying to reverse out of its bearish trend.  The risk remains for a test of the major low at 18.23.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower again today at current 61.92.  The ratio made a “lower high” at 62.61 on Friday, and so in the  very near-term, we could see the ratio trade back towards its  uptrend support line, which currently comes in at around 60.15.  There is also support at 61.06, the 38.2% retracement of the  August downtrend.
Silver declined as investors awaited a Federal Reserve meeting due to start later in the day to gauge the timing of stimulus cuts.
Data showing flat U.S. consumer prices in November also pressured prices.
Investors remained cautious ahead of the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.329 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.02%. Comex copper prices climbed to a session high of USD3.335 a pound earlier, the strongest level since October 22.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.300 a pound, the low from December 16 and resistance at USD3.353 a pound, the high from October 22.
The March contract settled 0.53% higher on Monday to end at USD3.329 a pound after upbeat manufacturing data out of the euro zone and the U.S. boosted optimism over the global economy.

Investors remained cautious ahead of the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with some expecting the central bank to announce a small reduction in the pace of its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program.
Copper futures were little changed near a seven-week high on Tuesday, as market players prepared for the start of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the day and news on the fate of the central bank’s bond-buying program.
Copper gained ahead of the start of the Fed’s policy meeting and news on the fate of the central bank’s bond-buying program.
Inflation data for US and European released were viewed as signs that the UK, US and eurozone were pressured by low inflation.
The bloc and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for December soundly exceeded forecasts and November’s readings.

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at USD97.58 a barrel, up 0.11%, after hitting an overnight session low of USD97.27 and a high of USD98.15. The February contract settled up 0.87% at USD97.77 a barrel on Monday.

Late Tuesday, The American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, said its own data showed that crude stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels last week. Investors were also awaiting the release of official oil and refined products inventories by the EIA on Wednesday as well.
Many investors remained in standby mode ahead of the Fed’s Wednesday announcement on monetary policy as well as the fate of stimulus programs such as monthly bond purchases, which have supported oil for over a year by softening the dollar.
Oil prices rose in Asia on Wednesday as the market awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Crude oil slipped ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in which the central bank may decide to scale back its stimulus programme.
Prices got some support on news that Libya had not reopened several oil-exporting ports.
Today crude oil inventories: EXP: -2.4M PREV: -10.6M. Actual is at 9.00PM.

Technical Levels
  SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1272 1253 1295 1305
SILVER 20.63 20.43 20.92 21.24
COPPER 3.1510 3.1280 3.1830 3.2190
CRUDE 93.65 92.84 94.51 95.36
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
 SILVER
Silver followed gold higher overnight to open at 20.73/20.78. It touched a low of 20.62/20.67 and then quickly moved up to a high of 20.85/20.90 prior to concluding the session at 20.71/20.76.
Silver also showed some signs of stabilizing after declining in 8 of the past 11 sessions, from 23.09 high to 20.44 low. Today’s close was 20.76, and comes after yesterday’s test of the previous 20.49 low from October 15th. Yesterday’s low of 20.44 now becomes support, with resistance at 21.45, which is 38.2% retracement of this recent downtrend. The risk is still to the downside, to test the previous low at 19.16.
Silver prices rallied off the previous session’s three-month low on Thursday, as investors cheered stimulus-supportive remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen.
Futures were likely to find support at USD20.41 a troy ounce, the low from November 13 and resistance at USD21.33, the high from November 12.
Expectations that the Fed would keep its stimulus in place for longer mounted following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Janet Yellen.
GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1283.00/1284.00. It briefly touched a low of 1281.25/1282.25 before surging to a high of 1294.00/1295.00 following marginally higher than expected U.S. initial jobless claims and signals from Fed Chairman nominee Janet Yellen that monetary stimulus is likely to continue. The metal closed the session at 1286.50/1287.50.
Gold closed higher today at 1286, stabilizing the decline that has seen gold travel from 1361 to 1261 in 9 sessions. On the daily chart, there is still a weak uptrend in gold in place since the June 28th low, with uptrend support coming in at 1272. However, the bearish trend that has been in place since the August high at 1433 still has greater momentum. The last signal in MACD is still a sell, and positive directional movement (+DMI) is only at 13, versus negative directional movement (-DMI) at 26. This leaves the risk to the downside, for a retracement back to the 1251 low from October. A breach of 1251 would open up a retracement to the 1180 low from June. Current resistance is at 1300, which is both a psychological level as well as the 38.2% retracement of the October downtrend.
Gold prices eased slightly in Asia on Friday, with investors taking gains from an overnight jump on expectations of continued easy monetary policy in the United States.
Overnight, gold prices hit a session low of USD1,273.30 a troy ounce and high of USD1,293.60 a troy ounce after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen said that monetary stimulus tools should stay in place as needed to ensure a more robust recovery.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.159 a pound during European morning trade, little changed.
Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.154 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.183 a pound.
The December contract tumbled to USD3.152 a pound on Wednesday, the lowest since August 7, before settling 2.3% lower at USD3.159 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.129 a pound, the low from August 7 and resistance at USD3.222 a pound, the high from November 13.
Copper futures traded at a three-month low on Thursday, ahead of the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.04, up 0.29%, in a range of 93.83 – 94.09.
The commodity hit a session low of USD92.53 and a high of USD94.42.
The December contract settled up 0.90% at USD93.88 a barrel on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier that crude oil inventories last week rose by 2.6 million barrels, far more than the 994,000 barrels predicted by analysts.
Crude oil prices held onto overnight gains in early Asia trade on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen told lawmakers that monetary stimulus tools shouldn’t be removed too soon in order to ensure recovery doesn’t falter.
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7.00 P.M Empire State Manufacturing Index 1.5 5.2 MEDIUM
7.00 P.M Import Prices m/m 0.2% -0.4% MEDIUM
7.45 P.M Capacity Utilization Rate 78.3% 78.3% MEDIUM
7.45 P.M Industrial Production m/m 0.6% 0.1% MEDIUM
Empire State Manufacturing Index
Source Federal Reserve Bank of New York (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Dec 16, 2013
FF Notes Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;
Also Called New York Manufacturing Index;
Import Prices m/m
FF Alert Release date delayed by 2 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release Dec 12, 2013
FF Notes This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders
Care
It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Capacity Utilization Rate
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release Dec 16, 2013
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when producers are nearing full capacity they respond by raising prices, and the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Industrial Production m/m
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release Dec 16, 2013
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Also Called Factory Output;
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;