Posts Tagged ‘Currency Trading’

The US dollar had an fine week, winning against currencies across the board, with the Aussie and the loonie suffering the biggest losses.  German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Rate decision in Japan and the UK as well as US Unemployment Claims and housing data are the main events on our calendar. Let’s have an approach on the main market-movers for this week.
The US manufacturing sector registered strong performance with a remarkable rise in Empire Manufacturing. Together with a rise in retail sales and solid inflation numbers, the US dollar left the disappointing NFP behind and enjoyed gains. The pound managed to give a fight to the dollar thanks to superb retail sales, but the rest were on the defensive. The Canadian dollar reached a new four year low against the greenback, and the Aussie collapsed to new 3 year lows after a terrible jobs report. Even the “Teflon” euro eventually depreciated. Volatility continues to provide opportunities.
UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of jobless claims in the UK fell by 36,700 in November to 1.27 million, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in October, to its lowest rate since 2009. Prime Minister David Cameron remarked that the plan is working, but there is still much work to be done. The workforce should be larger in order to provide solid economic recovery. A further decline of 32,300 jobless claims is forecasted while unemployment is expected to decline to 7.3%.
Source Office for National Statistics (latest release)
Measures Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 19, 2014
Why Traders
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called ILO Unemployment Rate, Jobless Rate;

US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, pushing the four week average by 13,500 to 335,000. The total number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits is expected to decline since a special federal program expired last month and is starting to affect recipients. Nevertheless, the number of new claims stabilized near pre-recession levels, indicating a solid recovery in the US economy. Jobless claims are expected to increase to 331,000.

Source Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release Jan 30, 2014
FF Notes This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

US Existing Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. U.S. home sales declined sharply in November to an annual rate of 4.90 million units, the lowest level in nearly a year, due to an increase in interest rates. This drop suggests the housing market is losing its growth momentum. The Fed tapering worsened the situation further as well as the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s plan to reduce the maximum size of mortgages which can be bought by taxpayer which is expected to have its toll on the housing sector. A rise to 4.99 million units is expected now. 

Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 21, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders
It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called Home Resales;

Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.97/20.02, which was also the day’s low. It followed gold to a high of 20.41/20.46 before concluding the day at 20.36/20.41.
Silver closed higher today for the third session in a row, at 20.41, but has yet to break its sideways range. Resistance is at the range high at 20.51. Support is at the December 31 low of 18.83. 
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower for the third consecutive session, at current 61.43. The ratio remains in an uptrend since September 2013, but is poised to test that uptrend which currently comes in around 60.90. Generally speaking, a declining gold-silver ratio is bullish for the metals (i.e., silver should outperform gold in an uptrend). We are closely watching the uptrend line for a clear breach.
 Technical Levels

  S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 20.25 20.05 20.50 20.90CRUDE
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
Gold moved marginally lower overnight to open at the session low of 1244.25/1245.25. Following surprisingly weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday, the metal drew buying interest today against a weaker dollar to post a high of 1253.00/1254.00 amidst diminishing concerns that the Fed will speed up tapering of its bond-buying program. It concluded the day at 1251.50/1252.50.
Gold closed higher today at 1252, breaking up through the previous recent high at 1248. Positive momentum in gold now exceeds negative momentum on the daily chart, and this is good news for the metal. There is an uptrend in the daily chart providing support; which currently comes in at 1231. Gold has made a successive higher low and now a higher high – taking out the December high at 1268 would be a bullish signal.
 Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1248 1232 1258 1267
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Copper is sensitive to the economic growth outlook because of its widespread uses across industries. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. On the Comexdivision of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.323 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.55%. Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.322 a pound and USD3.367 a pound.
The March contract ended Friday’s session up 1.29% to settle at USD3.341 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.289 a pound, the low from January 10 and resistance at USD3.377 a pound, the high from January 8. The U.S. economy added just 74,000 jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, the smallest increase since January 2011 and well below expectations for 196,000 new jobs.Copper futures fell on Monday, after disappointing U.S. jobs data cast doubt on the strength of the economic recovery.
The disappointing data cooled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its stimulus program again this month. The central bank cited a stronger labor market in its decision to taper its asset purchase program by USD10 billion in December to USD75 billion-a-month.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3270 3.3030 3.3550 3.3750
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded flat at USD92.03 a barrel up 0.03% during Asia morning trade. On Monday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD91.74 a barrel and a high of USD92.03 a barrel.
Talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran ended in agreement on a six-month deal that will limit advancements in Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions against Tehran starting Jan. 20.
In November, Iran pledged to eliminate its stocks of 20% enriched uranium within six months and limit the enrichment of uranium to 5%.
Trade sanctions slapped on Iran due to its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market over the past two years.
Soft U.S. jobs numbers released Friday also pressured prices lower.
Crude oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday during Asian trading hours as markets digested the weekend reports that Iran has agreed on a multilateral plan that would curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in a deal that could allow it to resume exports and add to global supply.
Technical Levels
  S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 91.30 91.00 92.00 92.50
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
7:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4% STRONG
7:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.2% STRONG
7:00pm Import Prices m/m -0.6% 0.3% MEDIUM000
8:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.7% 0.4% MEDIUM
11:15pm FOMC Member Plosser Speak     MEDIUM
11:50pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks     MEDIUM
Core Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called Retail Sales Ex Autos;
Retail Sales m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders
It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called Advance Retail Sales;
Import Prices m/m
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics(latest release)
Measures Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders
It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called Import Price Index;

The global market outlook for 2014 will most likely be comprised of three main themes:

  • Modest growth;
  • Continued low inflation;
  • Weakening potential.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) anticipates and/or recommends:

  • Revised 2013 and 2014 global growth projections (2.7% and 3.6% versus 3.1% and 4%);
  • A frustratingly vulnerable global recovery more than five years after the Lehman Brothers collapse;
  • Despite the Eurozone exiting a recession, the ECB should be looking at policies to further reduce interest rates;
  • That the Fed should keep its accommodative stance intact rather than considering the beginning of tapering.

The upside risks remain centered on capital investment – a global problem in 2013, where many corporations were long “cash” and repeatedly caught behind the investment curve.freee
More than five years after the onset of the Great Recession, consistent global growth remains elusive, prompting central banks to stick with artificially low interest rates while pumping an unprecedented infusion of cash into the financial system.
As they search for new ways to stimulate liquidity to augment the stimulus measures they’ve enacted, central bank policymakers must also fight deflation, and as expected, these are the themes that will continue to dominate the European Central Bank’s (ECB) train of thought as it has at the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Many foreign exchange (forex) participants and analysts are anticipating fiscal policy to be less of an impediment to U.S. growth in 2014. If so, it should allow the Federal Reserve to carefully navigate away from making asset purchases and reduce its massive $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program.
In 2013, the forex asset class managed to loiter within a contrived trading range policed by various central bank policies that, at times, led to a drop in both currency volume and volatility for painfully long stretches. The post-Lehman Brothers storm has now been replaced by a calmer period that continues to lack a badly needed injection of global corporate investment to help spur growth (think Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s third arrow problems, high unemployment in the Eurozone, and tentative U.S. growth).
There is great expectation that the U.S. and Europe will lead any rebound in the developed market. Next year, the U.S. is expected to reduce the fiscal drag (increased taxes and spending seizures) that the American economy has endured in the last few years. Hopefully, this will lead to a consensus of a real growth rate of approximately +3%. That’s a far better prospect than what’s unfolding across the Atlantic. Recent hard and soft European data would suggest a more muted and gradual recovery for the 17-member single currency bloc. In Japan where Abenomics reigns, additional monetary easing, and stimulus from Abe’s third arrow, should be capable of compensating the fiscal tightening (sales tax) Tokyo will initiate at the end of the first quarter in 2014. Japan is an export driven economy, a country that requires a weaker yen to further boost exports and economic growth. Critics of Abe’s three arrow policies are certainly wary of the fact that increasing the inflation rate to 2% may not necessarily increase consumption and economic activity. Even changes in the structure of Japan’s economy, do not necessarily mean that a lower currency may have the same effect on exports and growth. The short-yen trade has dominated many forex portfolios this past year. It has certainly been a trade of “patience,” a trade that’s expected to continue to dominate in the coming year.Currencies
In general, any stabilization in developed markets will eventually aid emerging markets, as increased demand in developed economies will soften the blow to any export deficits felt in the emerging world.
If this is what unfolds, it would be somewhat safe to assume that any improvement within the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan will complement the stabilization of China’s economy, and it should support emerging market growth next year. However, even if the cyclical outlook for emerging economies growth is pegged to improve, structural weakness is likely to persist. As a result, the spread between emerging and developed markets will probably narrow. Regarding China’s “reform package”, the focus is on how quickly China might allow productivity to rebound, as well as how it alters the orientation of growth. By any measure, China is faring best as it adjusts policy to confront the changing global outlook. The market expects steady growth to be maintained between +7.5% and +8%.
Speaking in Tongues
Monetary policy will continue to deliver effective stimulus everywhere, but nowhere is that urgency greater than in Japan and Europe. It is widely expected that Japan’s prime minister will implement new quantitative measures in 2014, while the threat of deflation may pressure the ECB to introduce negative interest rates for the first time in its tenure. The Fed is expected to begin tapering while keeping short-term interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Any central bank policy divergences will provide investment opportunities in equities, forex, and to a certain extent, in fixed-income. Central banks must continue to improve communication with the market and speak with plain language. As witnessed on a few occasions in 2013, incoherent dialogue leads to market risk.
Looking Ahead
Central banks’ monetary policies are expected to remain highly simulative and somewhat innovative in 2014. The Fed (soon-to-be under new leadership) will provide stronger forward guidance and it will reduce its monthly asset-purchase program. Other central banks will have to adapt to any move the Fed makes. With global rates remaining “lower for longer”, it would suggest more market opportunities in other asset classes like equities. However, investors have yet to experience how a Fed taper will play out.
The Fed requires the “terrible twos” to be constant before tapering will be seriously considered:

  •  U.S. growth more than +2%;
  •  Inflation greater than +2%;
  •  Nonfarm payrolls to print employment numbers in the +200k’s.

The forex market is under the impression that any notion of Fed tapering is data-dependent. This may not be wholly accurate. Reading between the “transparent” lines, it’s been suggested that U.S. policymakers are increasingly keen to pullback on liquidity and reduce the Fed’s monthly bond-buying program, with or without any noticeable improvement on the jobs front. If one digs deeper, it becomes obvious that the Fed is already discussing “concerns about the efficacy or costs of future asset purchases.” The main hurdle for the Fed to overcome has to do with communicating its intentions concisely. The steepness of the U.S. Treasury yield curve suggests that it so far has succeeded in getting its message across clearly to investors – front rates remain low, while the long-end has backed up. The Fed is required to partake in a fine balancing act – too much tightening too fast could cause an unsightly global domino effect.
Are improving fundamentals fueling an imminent withdrawal of the Fed’s loose monetary policy? Whether the Fed begins to taper its asset purchases in December or in the first quarter of 2014 doesn’t matter all that much. Many in the market do not expect the various asset classes to perform as wildly as they had when the Fed first floated the idea back in May 2013. Regardless, equities remain the global investors’ asset of choice despite assurances that stock returns will not necessarily carry-over smoothly into 2014. Others believe that the “mighty” dollar is on edge and about to wake from a two-month slumber of tightly contained range trading. Improvement in U.S. growth and the orderly move higher in Treasury yields is sure to support the dollar. This is in stark contrast to what the forex market was exposed to during the summer of 2013’s emerging market flight. During that period, investors were wide-open to volatile spikes and the relentless selling of emerging economic assets, firm in the belief that the Fed was on the cusp of reducing its quantitative easing program. The USD should be highly favored, especially against a dovish yen and Aussie next year.
On the other side of the planet, the jury remains out on Abenomics. Of the three arrows in Abe’s quiver – bold monetary easing, flexible fiscal policy, and a growth strategy aimed at bolstering the economy’s supply capacity – only the first arrow has hit the bull’s eye. Despite the yen underperforming across the board, and Tokyo distancing itself from any suggestion of currency manipulation, the market believes that another “arrow” aimed at devaluing the yen to an even greater degree will most likely need to be drawn and released in the first quarter of 2014 – if not sooner. There is a concern that directly devaluing the yen may not provide the intended impetus. A weaker domestic currency is advantageous for an export-driven economy. However, relying on a weak yen to expand economic growth can be easily and quickly trumped by Japan’s territorial and political disputes with China, an increasingly important trading partner for the island nation.
China’s Uncertain Reform Blueprint
The world’s second-largest economy is faring best as it adjusts policy to confront the changing global outlook. China’s growth prospects will be less of a concern in 2014. The reform package reportedly proposed by Communist Party General-Secretary, Xi Jinping, following the Third Plenary Session last November, will surely dominate most analysts’ thoughts next year. The success of the plan will be determined by how these policies will be executed. After decades of rapid expansion, the Chinese economy is entering a period of slower growth, and Beijing is under growing pressure to address issues that threaten further economic development and social stability. Now that the Chinese manufacturing sector has become somewhat unprofitable, it has led to less private investment – a global problem. Though the document focuses on improving China’s capacity to carry out economic and financial reforms, it remains light on details.
According to the OECD, China’s 2013 gross domestic product (GDP) was 7.7%, and the OECD expects it to achieve 8.2% next year. While Chinese economic recovery of the last 12 months is subdued when compared to recent history, money and credit growth needs to be reined in. The OECD suggests Beijing should increase social benefits, financial liberalization, and tax reform.
Nevertheless, China’s economy remains strong. What sets China apart is that it has been growing because of structural change as the government addresses its economic weakness quickly – a by-product of its political ideology. It will continue on its trajectory to become more of a middle-income country.
Emerging Markets Outlook
Aggregate emerging market growth has slowed to less than +4% in only three years. Emerging markets are predominately pressured by the slowdown in fixed-investment spending, which accounts for approximately +50% of that pullback. That said analysts believe the cyclical outlook for emerging market growth is steadily improving. Stronger growth from developed markets is expected to boost external demand, and when coupled with still-low real interest rates in most emerging countries, it should also continue to support domestic demand. Based on the International Monetary Fund’s real GDP growth forecast for 2014-15, Turkey, Mexico, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungry, and China should be the biggest net benefiters. Of course, a stronger U.S. economy should be capable of pushing emerging markets’ real GDP growth even higher. Last summer’s intense pressure on the emerging forex market was brought about by the possibility of Fed tapering. The tightening of a loose U.S. monetary policy caused a massive backlash that saw investors and speculators dumping emerging market assets, with many seeking shelter in American assets. During this period of intense pressure, the Fed surprised the market and delayed the much anticipated tapering, in turn giving emerging markets a second life that allowed these economies to experience a relief rally. In reality, the challenges unstable emerging economies face has merely been delayed, not averted. Any emerging market countries and currencies with weak growth, structural issues, high debt, and other funding concerns will experience the pain of renewed capital market pressure when the Fed does begin to reduce its bond-buying program.
All that Glitters is Not Gold
In recent years, commodity prices have been competitively correlated with growth in emerging market industrial production. As growth slowed in these regions, so too have commodity prices, especially gold. The yellow metal will close-out 2013 in the red for the first time in 13 years. It’s no wonder that this long-time bull story will top many analysts’ 2013 financial stories of the year. With emerging market growth lagging, this has led to muted growth in overall commodity prices. This is not expected to change in 2014 – emerging market structural concerns combined with excess supply of commodities will lead to further stagnation of commodity prices. Many investors who brought gold as an inflation hedge have fared poorly. The market is losing faith in the metal as a store of value due to concerns that the Fed will reduce its asset purchases and ease the risk of accelerating
What may have caught many gold bugs off-guard is India. The world’s second-most populous country is to be dethroned as the biggest purchaser of the yellow metal on the planet. China will assume that status in 2014 with a consistent appetite. China has imported more than 100 tons of gold per month in the second half of 2013. For some, the Chinese demand is a case of too little, too late. John Paulson, the best-known gold bull since he started wagering on bullion more than three years ago, is backing away from his bet. Paulson made it clear to investors that he would not be adding to his gold fund because of inflation uncertainty. To date, Paulson’s fund has lost -63%. The market expects Chinese gold demand to continue to pick-up before the lunar New Year at the end of January 2014 due to a lack of alternative investment opportunities. With equities under pressure, and Chinese authorities dissuading real estate investment, gold remains a solid alternative.
However, spot gold prices continue to be dictated by U.S. economic data and monetary policy. Global investors need solid clues on what to expect on American policy direction for trade vindication.

Technical Levels

Commodity Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2
Gold 1310 1305 1320 1327
Silver 21.59 21.36 21.85 22.03
Copper 3.259 3.250 3.270 3.385
Crude 94.33 94.04 94.90 95.21
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
The gold market waffled around unchanged early this morning but seemed to catch a bit of a bid into mid session. 
With modest weakness in the Dollar, higher equities and countervailing US scheduled data, the gold market was lucky to have come away with a slightly positive bias this morning. Factory orders were a touch weaker than expectations, while the ISM New York current Business Index showed a fairly significant jump. All things considered, the magnitude of the rise in the regional ISM might have countervailed some of the major headline status of the Factory orders results. This morning Gold did manage to rally in the face of the ISM improvement and then it fell back somewhat in the wake of the weaker factory orders report! In other words, gold seemed to need positive US data to rally this morning and that would seem to fly in the face of gold’s patterns last week.
December silver fell back into the US scheduled data window and then recovered 9 cents in the face of the stronger than expected ISM report. 
Unfortunately December silver also fell back in the wake of the slightly softer than expected US Factory orders results. Therefore traders could suggest that silver is indeed acting like a physical commodity market in need of positive progression in the economy again and that in turn would seem to downplay the threat of tapering and the threat of adverse currency market action.
After an initial rally on Friday, December copper prices appeared for some traders to lose their initial positive tone, and finished last week roughly 4.00 cents below their weekly highs. 
Many in the market feel that the most notable development for copper last week was improved Chinese economic data and slightly better than expected US economic data. However, copper recently saw a halt in a long held pattern of daily LME exchange copper stock declines. 
In addition, there was also an increase in weekly Shanghai copper stocks at the end of last week. The market was also presented with a series of higher copper production readings from China, Mexico and South America last week. Some traders that while supply has become a slightly negative issue for the market, and hopes for improved copper demand was able to strengthen copper prices last week in the face of overt weakness in a number of other commodities
The oil complex spent time on both sides of unchanged today as the market continues to digest bearish US oil fundamentals and technicals against a backdrop of mixed external price drivers.  Equities have remained mostly in positive territory over the last twenty four hours while the US dollar Index finally was hit with a light round of profit taking selling ending the day in negative territory and thus a slightly positive price driver for the oil complex today.
Global Economic Data
Time Data Prv Exp Impact
8:30 PM ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.2 High
8:30 PM IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 38.4 41.1 Low
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Source Institute for Supply Management (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends;
Next Release Dec 4, 2013
FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Source changed series from unadjusted to seasonally adjusted as of January 2001. Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb 2008;
Why Traders
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
IBD/TIPP Economic optimism
Source TIPP (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Dec 11, 2013
FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;