Archive for November, 2014

FOREX Report & Technical Analysis 24th Nov

Posted: November 24, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
EUR/USD fell hard on Friday, testing the 1.2350 region.we feel that the market will more than likely head down to the 1.2050 level, which is our longer-term target. Forex_EuroUSD_0Ultimately we believe that bounces are selling opportunities as the US dollar should continue to be by far the most favored currency in the trading world. We have no interest in buying this market, and recognize that it’s only a matter of time before we break down as the US dollar is the strongest financial instrument.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD fell on Friday, as you can see.The market still remains within the previous consolidation area so although it looks very soft at this moment in time, we don’t really have a signal to work with. gbp-usdBecause of this, we are on the sidelines but we recognize that the downtrend is certainly an effect, and any rally at this point in time should be an opportunity to sell. Resistive candles will be used, as well as a break down to a fresh new low.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD tried to rally on Friday, but found far too much in the way of resistance above and turned back around to form a shooting star. With that, the market looks as if it’s ready to drop from here, and perhaps continue lower. That would continue the overall downtrend anyway, so we are more than comfortable shorting this market on a break down. We have no interest in buying the Australian dollar because there is so much working against the right now, and therefore we are essentially “sell only.”
USD/JPY
USD/JPY went back and forth on Friday, However, the market has broken out recently and therefore we feel that the market should be bought every time it pulls back and show signs of support. usd-jpyWith that being the case, we feel that supportive candles below are opportunity to take advantage of what is obviously a very strong uptrend and a divergence of the central banks. We will buy and buying again, and have no interest whatsoever in selling as the US dollars so strong.
Data Update for 24th Nov 2014

3:15am CHF Employment Level 4.22M 4.20M
4:00am EUR High German Ifo Business Climate 103 103.2
9:00am EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate -5.3 -6.8
9:45am USD Flash Services PMI 57.3 57.1
6:50pm JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
JPY SPPI y/y 3.60% 3.50%
8:00pm JPY High BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
9:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m 0.90%
NZD Inflation Expectations q/q 2.20%
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EUR/USD
EUR/USD went back Thursday, testing the 1.25 level for support. It did in fact find it, sign_EUR_USD_bbut at the end of the day we continue to go sideways. We believe that ultimately if we can break down below the 1.25 level, we would be massively bearish. A break down below that level should send this market looking for the 1.2350 level. That area should be somewhat supportive, but ultimately we believe that this market will break down below there. We have no interest in buying.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD went back on Thursday, testing the 1.57 level. The market showed a neutral candle, gbp-usdit’s looking impossible to imagine place a trade at the moment. However, if we see some type of resistant candle above, we would be more than willing to sell this market as the market looks very bearish overall. That being said, we feel that buying this market is impossible until we get above the 1.60 handle. With that, we are very bullish of the US dollar and recognize that it is the strongest currency out there.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD fell on Thursday, testing the 0.86 handle. Because of that, AUD-USD_3_309x143we do forming a little bit of a hammer like candle and it suggests to us that we may bounce a little bit. Quite frankly that’s a selling opportunity as far as we can see, and we are going to look for resistive candles in order to do so. With that being the case, we are on the sidelines but we are looking for opportunity to take advantage of value when it comes to the US dollar.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY tried to rally Thursday, but turned back around to form a shooting star. usd-jpyThe shooting star suggests to us that the market is going to pull back, and quite frankly we look at that as value in the US dollar. We believe that the 115 level below should be massively supportive, so therefore we are looking for supportive candles below in order to go long of this pair as we believe that the market is in a longer-term uptrend. Ultimately, we cannot sell.
Data Update for 21th Nov 2014

Time Currency Imact Particualr Forecast Previous
12:00am USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks
7:30am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 4.40%
1:30pm EUR High ECB President Draghi Speaks
2:30pm GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 6.9B 11.1B
7:00pm CAD High Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
CAD CPI m/m -0.30% 0.10%

FOREX Technical Analysis Outlook 20th Nov

Posted: November 20, 2014 in Forex

EUR/USD
EUR/USD tried to go up during Wednesday, but as you can see ran into trouble at the 1.26 level yet again and fell to form a shooting star. we believe that a move below the 1.25 level is in fact a selling opportunity in a market that most certainly is in a massive downtrend. We have no interest in buying, as we believe that the sellers will come back into the market to punish the Euro again and again. With that being said, we remain bearish. See Live Signals
GBP/USD
GBP/USD broke high on Wednesday, testing the 1.57 handle. That being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to perhaps bounce around little bit we still believe in selling rallies as they appear. Resistive candles above will continue to be selling opportunities, and we believe that the GBP/USD pair is eventually going to head down to the 1.55 handle. If we can get below there, the 1.50 level is probably targeted. We are not interested in buying this market until we get above the 1.60 handle, something that doesn’t look likely at the moment. See Live Signals
AUD/USD
AUD/USD fell on Wednesday, as we continue to see weakness in the Australian dollar in general. After all, the market heads down to the 0.85 handle, and then ultimately below there given enough time. We have no interest in buying this pair, and believe that rallies at this point time should be nice selling opportunities as the market certainly has set its trend to the downside. In fact, it’s almost impossible to be buying this market until we get above the 0.90 level. That seems very unlikely, and as a result we aren’t even looking. See Live Signals
USD/JPY
USD/JPY broke high on Wednesday, as we tested the 118 handle. Because of this, it looks like the USD/JPY pair is ready to continue going higher over the longer term, and we feel that the market is then heading to the 120 level given enough time. Quite frankly, this is a market that can be bought every time we pullback, and we will continue to do so as the US dollar should continue to strengthen. The 115 level below is massive support as far as we can see. See Live Signals
Data Update for 20th Nov 2014

Time Currency Imact Particualr Forecast Previous
12:30am USD High FOMC Meeting Minutes
5:20am JPY Trade Balance -1.02T -1.07T
7:05am JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.7 52.4
7:15am CNY High HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.2 50.4
10:30am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
12:30pm CHF Trade Balance 2.57B 2.45B
EUR German PPI m/m -0.10% 0.00%
1:30pm EUR High French Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.9 48.5
EUR French Flash Services PMI 48.6 48.3
2:00pm EUR High German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.4
EUR German Flash Services PMI 54.5 54.4
2:30pm EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.9 50.6
EUR Flash Services PMI 52.3 52.3
3:00pm GBP High Retail Sales m/m 0.40% -0.30%
4:30pm GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -3 -6
6:15pm USD FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks
7:00pm CAD High Wholesale Sales m/m 0.70% 0.20%
USD High CPI m/m -0.10% 0.10%
USD High Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
USD High Unemployment Claims 286K 290K
8:15pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.2 55.9
8:30pm EUR Consumer Confidence -11 -11
USD High Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 18.9 20.7
USD Existing Home Sales 5.16M 5.17M
USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.60% 0.80%
9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 40B
10:30pm CHF Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but as you can see found enough support to turn things back around and form a nice hammer. Because of this, it appears the market is ready to bounce from here, and perhaps even go as high as 1.28 before it’s all said and done. USD-EURNonetheless, we do not like buying this pair and we do believe that eventually that any rally from here will simply represent value in the US dollar that will force people to come into this market and sell.
Forecast
The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the session on Friday, but then bounced above the 1.25 level by the time we close. This of course is a very positive looking candle, and as a result the market should continue to go higher for the short-term. Ultimately though we think there is plenty of resistance above and it’s likely that this market will break down. We have no interest in buying the Euro, and believe that the US dollar will continue to be the favored currency by Forex traders around the world.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair initially dipped during the course of the week, but then bounced enough to form a hammer yet again. This is the second week in a row we have seen is, so it appears of this market is ready to bounce around. It’s going to be difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this pair, so quite frankly we are standing on the sidelines at the moment. AUD-USDWe still favor the downside, but certainly don’t have any type of selling signal at this point in time.
Forecast
After early session weakness, the AUD/USD rebounded on Friday, closing higher and putting the market in a position to breakout through a short-term retracement zone. The continuation of the move through this zone will not mean the trend has changed, but it could create enough upside momentum to challenge the October 29 top at .8910. A trade through this price will turn the main trend to up on the daily chart.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, and now looks very bearish. Because of this, we feel that this market will then go to the 1.55 handle, and then possibly 1.50 handle given enough time. Rallies at this point in time should continue to be selling opportunities, as we believe the 1.60 level is now the” ceiling” of this particular currency pair. GBP-USDThe US dollar is by far the most favored currency in the world, and we don’t see that changing anytime soon as the Federal Reserve has left the quantitative easing game.
Forecast
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the session on Friday, but bounced enough to form a nice-looking hammer. This of course suggests that we could get a little bit of a bounce but we would anticipate selling pressure to pick back up somewhere closer to the 1.59 handle even if we do get that bounce. We think that the 1.60 level is of course the “ceiling” in this marketplace, and that being the case we feel that the market will eventually break down to the 1.55 handle. Ultimately, we believe that the 1.50 level could be targeted.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair broke above the 115 level during the week, and now looks poised to go much higher. We believe that this market will eventually go to the 120 level, and that pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities going forward. With that being the case, we really like this pair and we believe that the US dollar will continue to climb against the Japanese yen over the longer term and that this is a nice “buy-and-hold” type of market. JPY- USDWe have no interest in selling this market on believe that the 110 level is now the absolute bottom.
Forecast
The USD/JPY pair initially broke higher during the course of the session on Friday, but found enough resistance above to turn things back around and form a shooting star. The shooting star of course signifies that we will more than likely pullback but we think that the 115 level is massively supportive. That being the case, we are buyers on this pullbacks, and have no interest whatsoever in selling this market as there is a massive amount of support below. Ultimately, we believe that this market goes to the 120 level, given enough time we feel that it could go even higher.
Data Update for 17th to 21st Nov 2014

Time Currency Imact Particualr Forecast Previous
3:15am NZD High Retail Sales q/q 0.80% 1.10%
5:20am JPY High Prelim GDP q/q 0.50% -1.80%
7:30pm EUR High ECB President Draghi Speaks
6:00am AUD High Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:55pm AUD High RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
3:00pm GBP High CPI y/y 1.20% 1.20%
3:30pm EUR High German ZEW Economic Sentiment 0.9 -3.6
7:00pm USD High PPI m/m -0.10% -0.10%
Tentative NZD High GDT Price Index -0.30%
Tentative JPY High Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY High BOJ Press Conference
3:00pm GBP High MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9
GBP High MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2-0-7 2-0-7
7:00pm USD High Building Permits 1.04M 1.02M
12:30am USD High FOMC Meeting Minutes
7:15am CNY High HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.2 50.4
1:30pm EUR High French Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.9 48.5
2:00pm EUR High German Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.4
3:00pm GBP High Retail Sales m/m 0.40% -0.30%
7:00pm CAD High Wholesale Sales m/m 0.70% 0.20%
USD High CPI m/m -0.10% 0.10%
USD High Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
USD High Unemployment Claims 286K 290K
USD High Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 18.9 20.7
1:30pm EUR High ECB President Draghi Speaks
7:00pm CAD High Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%