EUR/USD pair did fall during the course of the day on Wednesday, but bounce significantly in order to form a bit of a hammer. We continue to hang about the 1.34 level, and ultimately we believe that the real support is below, and much closer to the 1.33 handle. With that, we are looking to sell any rallies, and think that this pair will continue to be negative for the time being. However, we recognize that the nonfarm payroll numbers come out on Friday, so we could have a bit of slow trading during the session today.
The GBP/USD pair fell during the course of the day on Wednesday, but bounced back above the 1.69 level in order to form a bit of a hammer. That being the case, it appears the market could make another attempt to reach the 1.70 handle, but it is not until we get above that level that we are comfortable buying. As far selling is concerned, if we can sustain a move below 1.69, it’s very likely that this pair does the 1.67 handle. Ultimately though, we do believe that the British pound will get some buying pressure soon.
The AUD/USD pair initially fell during the session on Wednesday, but as you can see found enough support near the 0.93 handle in order to turn things back around and show a bit of support towards end of the day. Because of this, we feel that the market should continue to bounce from here, but right now don’t have the reason that we need to start buying. Ultimately, we think this market will continue to try to fight and of buying pressure to head the 0.95 handle, and perhaps even break through.
The USD/JPY pair shot straight through the atmosphere during the day on Wednesday, as the US GDP numbers came out much stronger than anticipated. Because of this, the US dollar gained everywhere, the Japanese yen been no different. The 103 level was the significant resistance barrier that the market has been fighting with for some time now, and as a result we feel that the market should probably pull back from this area first, especially considering that the nonfarm payroll numbers are coming out on Friday.
Data Update for 31st July 2014
|4:31am||GBP||GfK Consumer Confidence||-2||2||1|
|7:00am||AUD||High||Building Approvals m/m||-5.00%||-1.00%||10.30%|
|AUD||Import Prices q/q||-3.00%||-1.40%||3.20%|
|AUD||Private Sector Credit m/m||0.70%||0.40%||0.40%|
|JPY||Average Cash Earnings y/y||0.40%||0.70%||0.60%|
|10:30am||JPY||Housing Starts y/y||-9.50%||-11.20%||-15.00%|
|11:29am||GBP||Nationwide HPI m/m||0.10%||0.60%||1.00%|
|11:30am||EUR||German Retail Sales m/m||1.30%||1.10%||-0.60%|
|12:15pm||EUR||French Consumer Spending m/m||0.90%||0.30%||0.70%|
|1:25pm||EUR||German Unemployment Change||-12K||-5K||7K|
|1:30pm||EUR||Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate||12.30%||12.60%||12.60%|
|2:30pm||EUR||High||CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.40%||0.50%||0.50%|
|EUR||Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y||0.80%||0.80%||0.80%|
|EUR||Italian Prelim CPI m/m||-0.10%||0.10%||0.10%|
|5:00pm||USD||Challenger Job Cuts y/y||-20.20%|
|USD||Employment Cost Index q/q||0.50%||0.30%|
|8:00pm||USD||Natural Gas Storage||92B||90B|