Singapore Daily Technical Ananlysis Reports on STI

Market Review:
STI shares fell on the 4th continuous day, and closed well below the 50 & 200 day MA levels after minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s October meeting indicated possible stimulus withdrawal at one of its next few meetings
Singapore shares open with gap down @ 3175.70 and then just made day high @3176.76 and then it traded lower side and made day low @ 3158.40 and then it recovers and closed @3172.38 with loss of 11.85 points down by 0.37%
Some 1.44 billion shares, valued at S$948.3 million were traded. Gainers numbered 136 while losers numbered 271.
Singapore raised its full-year growth forecast for 2013 to between 3.5 and 4.0 % after third-quarter GDP grew 5.7 % from a year ago, helped by further signs of a recovery in manufacturing and continued strength in services.

Market forecast:
STI closed below its 50 & 200 day MA level and also closed with recovery.
STI formed a candlestick pattern called “Hammer” A hammer is a type of bullish reversal candlestick pattern, made up of just one candle, The candle looks like a hammer, as it has a long lower wick and a short body at the top of the candlestick with little or no upper wick. here the hammer form in a downtrend this is a sign of a potential reversal in the market as the long lower wick represents a period of trading where the sellers were initially in control but the buyers were able to reverse that control and drive prices back up to close near the high for the day, thus the short body at the top of the candle.
After seeing this chart pattern form in the market most traders will wait for the next period to open higher than the close of the previous period to confirm that the buyers are actually in control.
Two additional things that traders will look for to place more significance on the pattern are a long lower wick and an increase in volume for the time period that formed the hammer.

Support:
STI having immediate support @ 3155 level and below this level it can take support @3135-3115 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3195 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3215-3235

Technical indicators:
Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning from lower.

Technical view on STI

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3155
Support 2	3135
Support 3	3115
Resistance 1	3195
Resistance 2	3215
Resistance 3	3235

Today’s Technical view on STI

Technical view on STI

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3185
Support 2	3165
Support 3	3145
Resistance 1	3205
Resistance 2	3220
Resistance 3	3235

Market Review:

Singapore shares open high but closed below 3200 mark.

Singapore shares open at 3204.200 and then it made day high @ 3206.92 but faced resistance at that level and traded on lower side and made day low @ 3188.58 near to its 50& 200 day MA level and finally closed @ 3192.08 with loss of 10.95 points down by 0.34%.

Some 1.69 billion shares, valued at S$892.3 million were traded. Gainers numbered 176 while losers numbered 264.

Market forecast:

STI closed below 3200 level and took support near to its 50 & 200 day Ma level which is 3185.122 & 3185.779.

As we previously mention that STI traded in a triangle pattern and yesterday it touched its breakout level of 3218. Pattern starts from 19th Sept from the highest high of 3260.14 and then it took support on 3104 level on 8th Oct and again made high which is lower than previous high i.e.3235.25 and then it faced resistance at this level and fell down and took support @ 3163 which is higher than previous low, now its next move may be breakout from this pattern and if it will crossed 3220-3235 then it will definitely move upwards. But today index moved down side and took support at its major support level as 50 & 200 day MA levels are about to give cross over so after that maybe we can see clear trend.

Support:

STI having immediate support @ 3185 level and below this level it can take support @3165-3145 will be the support zone for STI.

Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3205 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3220-3235

Technical indicators:

Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning from lower.

Commodity Technical Analysis for Today

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1281	1274	1292	1297
SILVER	20.57	20.43	20.96	21.11
COPPER	3.1485	3.1260	3.1890	3.2070
CRUDE	93.43	93.02	94.40	94.96

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.63/20.68, which was also the low of the day. Thereafter, it followed gold to a high of 20.79/20.84 prior to concluding the session at 20.73/20.78.

Silver closed lower for the 3rd week in a row, at 20.78. The close breached a support level of 20.85, which was the 61.8% retracement of the July-August uptrend. Intraweek, silver also made a new low around 20.44. The move opens up a retracement to the last significant low of 19.16 from August. ADX has declined sharply from a high in the 72’s to the current 26 level, indicating that bear momentum has faded substantially in this consolidation since June 2013. Like gold, silver may be forming a bottom; however, near term risk is to the downside.

Silver settled down as pressure seen since last Thursday after strong U.S. GDP and jobs growth data

Yellen told that while the economy is on the mend, inflation and unemployment rates have room to move closer to Fed comfort zones.

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 50.93 tonnes to 10392.89 tonnes from 10443.82 tonnes.

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1282.75/1283.75. After dropping slightly to a low of 1282.25/1283.25, it rose to a high of 1289.75/1290.75 while the dollar weakened following a drop in U.S. industrial output and weaker than expected NY Fed manufacturing data. Thereafter, the metal traded within range to close marginally lower at 1287.75/1288.75.

Gold closed unchanged this week at 1288, forming a doji in the weekly candlestick chart. Support is at the most recent significant low of 1251, while resistance is at the most recent significant high of 1361. The RSI on the weekly chart is at 40, still within bear market territory, and the most recent signal from MACD is a sell. The bearish trend in place since the major high at 1921 remains strong, with an ADX of 40, which indicates a strong trend. However, gold’s inability to make a new low below 1251 is encouraging from a longer term perspective, and it is possible that the metal is forming a bottom, particularly given that it nearly achieved our technical objective of 1155 (when it traded to a low of 1180).

Gold settled flat underpinned by expectations that the nominee to lead the Fed, Janet Yellen, would continue easy monetary policy in that role

Yellen told Senate Committee the Fed’s economic stimulus would continue, prompting gold speculators to buy back their bearish bets.

China has purchased 798 tonnes of the precious metal so far this year, compared to India’s 715 tonnes – WGC

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.174 a pound during European morning trade.

Comex copper prices declined 2.55% on the week.
Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since August after a top-level Communist Party meeting disappointed investors who were expecting announcements of major economic reforms.
China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper ended with losses due to the outflow of money for risk aversion.

China’s production of refined copper may have been inflated by more than 15 percent this year.

Copper daily stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 1801 tonnes

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December fell to USD94.38 a barrel, down 0.12%, trading in a range of USD94.36 – USD94.49. On Friday, the contract closed at USD93.84 a barrel.
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, traded at 80.95 on Monday, up 0.10%.
Traders remained concerned about rising U.S. inventories.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that crude oil inventories last week rose by 2.6 million barrels, far more than the 994,000 barrels predicted by analysts.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 388.1 million barrels as of last week, the highest since June.

New York crude oil futures eased in early Asian trade on Monday with the dollar index up slightly with the contract seen consolidating as large stockpiles in the United States weigh on the market.

Crude oil dropped on the reports that a senior U.S. official said a deal with Iran on its nuclear program was “quite possible”.

Sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program have kept some 1 million barrels of oil off the global market.

The IEA said that while oil markets look well supplied in the short term, prices could rise in next few months due to a seasonal increase in demand.

SINGAPORE STRAIGHT TIME INDEX: Weekly Technical Analysis (18 – 22 Nov)

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3175	3150	3125	3215	3235	3265

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3184.09
HIGH	3202.79
LOW	3163.01
CLOSE	3201.27
CHANGE (In Points)	24.02
% CHANGE	0.75%

 Weekly wrap of STI:

Singapore shares rose for a second session on last day of week, of course for their biggest weekly gain in one month, as investors were encouraged by the prospect of extended US monetary stimulus.

Week starts below 3200 mark @ 3184.09 and then it crossed 50 week MA level i.e 3179.28 and made week low @ 3163.01 and took support at this level, after taking support STI made high of 3202.79 and closed near to high @ 3201.27 with gain of 24.02 points up by 0.75% wow basis.

Macro-Economic:

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) probably fell year-on-year for a 9 straight month in October, albeit at a slower pace as Western economies recover. In September, domestic exports fell 1.2 % from a year earlier. The median of the poll is for exports to have fallen 0.8 % in October.

SINGAPORE’S retail sales slipped 5.9 % in September compared to a year ago as sales of motor vehicles and telecommunications apparatus & computers suffered double digit declines. Month-on-month (seasonally adjusted), retail sales edged up 0.5 % as sales of vehicles improved over August by 19.1 %. Excluding sales of vehicles, however, retail sales declined 2.5 %.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• STI closed above 3200 mark near to weekly high; however it just crossed 3200 mark and closed @ 3201.27.

• STI closed with recovery after 3 weeks lower trend. Maintain to close above its 50 week MA level of 3179.27.

• For coming week if STI could maintain itself above 3175 then it can cross 3250 mark and below 3175 STI can be bearish biased.

STI Resistance:

• STI having Resistance @ 3215 and above this level it may take resistance from 3235-3265 levels.

STI Support:

• STI having nearest support @ 3175 below this 3150-3125 will be the support area for market.

 Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators are in recovery mode, RSI closed @50.91 and CCI trading in positive mode.

OVERNIGHT COMMODITY Technical Analysis Outlook

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1272	1253	1295	1305
SILVER	20.63	20.43	20.92	21.24
COPPER	3.1510	3.1280	3.1830	3.2190
CRUDE	93.65	92.84	94.51	95.36

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

 SILVER

Silver followed gold higher overnight to open at 20.73/20.78. It touched a low of 20.62/20.67 and then quickly moved up to a high of 20.85/20.90 prior to concluding the session at 20.71/20.76.

Silver also showed some signs of stabilizing after declining in 8 of the past 11 sessions, from 23.09 high to 20.44 low. Today’s close was 20.76, and comes after yesterday’s test of the previous 20.49 low from October 15th. Yesterday’s low of 20.44 now becomes support, with resistance at 21.45, which is 38.2% retracement of this recent downtrend. The risk is still to the downside, to test the previous low at 19.16.

Silver prices rallied off the previous session’s three-month low on Thursday, as investors cheered stimulus-supportive remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen.

Futures were likely to find support at USD20.41 a troy ounce, the low from November 13 and resistance at USD21.33, the high from November 12.
Expectations that the Fed would keep its stimulus in place for longer mounted following dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Janet Yellen.

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1283.00/1284.00. It briefly touched a low of 1281.25/1282.25 before surging to a high of 1294.00/1295.00 following marginally higher than expected U.S. initial jobless claims and signals from Fed Chairman nominee Janet Yellen that monetary stimulus is likely to continue. The metal closed the session at 1286.50/1287.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1286, stabilizing the decline that has seen gold travel from 1361 to 1261 in 9 sessions. On the daily chart, there is still a weak uptrend in gold in place since the June 28th low, with uptrend support coming in at 1272. However, the bearish trend that has been in place since the August high at 1433 still has greater momentum. The last signal in MACD is still a sell, and positive directional movement (+DMI) is only at 13, versus negative directional movement (-DMI) at 26. This leaves the risk to the downside, for a retracement back to the 1251 low from October. A breach of 1251 would open up a retracement to the 1180 low from June. Current resistance is at 1300, which is both a psychological level as well as the 38.2% retracement of the October downtrend.

Gold prices eased slightly in Asia on Friday, with investors taking gains from an overnight jump on expectations of continued easy monetary policy in the United States.

Overnight, gold prices hit a session low of USD1,273.30 a troy ounce and high of USD1,293.60 a troy ounce after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen said that monetary stimulus tools should stay in place as needed to ensure a more robust recovery.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.159 a pound during European morning trade, little changed.

Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.154 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.183 a pound.
The December contract tumbled to USD3.152 a pound on Wednesday, the lowest since August 7, before settling 2.3% lower at USD3.159 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.129 a pound, the low from August 7 and resistance at USD3.222 a pound, the high from November 13.

Copper futures traded at a three-month low on Thursday, ahead of the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.04, up 0.29%, in a range of 93.83 – 94.09.
The commodity hit a session low of USD92.53 and a high of USD94.42.

The December contract settled up 0.90% at USD93.88 a barrel on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported earlier that crude oil inventories last week rose by 2.6 million barrels, far more than the 994,000 barrels predicted by analysts.

Crude oil prices held onto overnight gains in early Asia trade on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Janet Yellen told lawmakers that monetary stimulus tools shouldn’t be removed too soon in order to ensure recovery doesn’t falter.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00 P.M	Empire State Manufacturing Index	1.5	5.2	MEDIUM
7.00 P.M	Import Prices m/m	0.2%	-0.4%	MEDIUM
7.45 P.M	Capacity Utilization Rate	78.3%	78.3%	MEDIUM
7.45 P.M	Industrial Production m/m	0.6%	0.1%	MEDIUM

Empire State Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of New York (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Dec 16, 2013
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via	Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;
Also Called	New York Manufacturing Index;

Import Prices m/m

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 2 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 12, 2013
FF Notes	This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders Care	It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;

Capacity Utilization Rate

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 16, 2013
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when producers are nearing full capacity they respond by raising prices, and the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;

Industrial Production m/m

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 16, 2013
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Also Called	Factory Output;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;

COMMODITY: Overnight Technical Outlook

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1261	1253	1279	1291
SILVER	20.28	20.12	20.01	21.17
COPPER	3.1338	3.1081	3.2038	3.2738
CRUDE	93.02	92.17	94.63	95.39

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

 SILVER

Silver edged higher overnight to open at the day’s high of 20.78/20.83. It traded within range for most of the session before declining to a four-week low of 20.40/20.45 later in the afternoon prior to concluding the day at 20.45/20.50.

Silver closed lower today at 20.50, the 5th lower close in a row. Intraday, we breached the 20.49 low from October 15. The move opens up a retracement to 19.16, the low from August 2013. We are bearish silver so long as it is trading below resistance in the low 21’s.

The gold-silver ratio has shot higher in the past two sessions, currently trading at 61.84. Gold typically outperforms silver in a bear market. Resistance is at the most recent major high at 62.37. There is support from the daily uptrend, which currently comes in at 59.18.

Silver rose as weakness in rupee supported amid growing speculation the U.S. was moving closer to taking military action against Syria’s government.

An early end to stimulus could hurt precious metals by drawing investors away from non-interest-bearing assets.

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 44.99 tonnes to 10600.69 tonnes from 10555.70 tonnes.

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1276.50/1277.50. It immediately rose to a high of 1280.00/1281.00 as the dollar dropped and 10-year U.S. yields fell following mixed signals on the timing of tapering of the monetary stimulus program. The metal traded within range for most of the day before edging lower to close at the session low of 1268.50/1269.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1269. The risk is still for a full retracement back to the October low in the 1252 area. A breach of support at 1252 would open up the June low of 1180. We are bearish gold so long as it is trading below 1307.

Gold climbed to the Life time High as Rupee dropped and political tension over Syria increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value.

Western powers told the Syrian opposition to expect a strike against Syria President Bashar al-Assad’s forces within days.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.10 percent, or 0.90 tonnes, to 921.03 tonne.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.191 a pound during European morning trade, down 1.35%.
Comex copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.186 a pound earlier, the weakest level since August 8.
The December contract settled 0.78% lower on Tuesday to end at USD3.234 a pound.

Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.174 a pound, the low from August 8 and resistance at USD3.258 a pound, the high from November 12.

Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since August on Wednesday, after a top-level Communist Party meeting disappointed investors and amid growing speculation the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its asset purchase program at its December policy meeting.

Copper crossed 500 mark as support seen due to weakness in rupee while a potential western strike on Syria made investor bets more cautious.

The economy of China is showing clear signs of stabilisation, helped by policy support and some improvement in global demand.

In the US, recent data on durable goods, single family home sales and business spending on capital goods have been disappointing.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD93.71, down 0.19%, in a range of 93.45 – 93.78.
Some traders expect that more refiners than estimated have curbed their crude processing amid seasonal maintenance work and that could bring in the data more bearish than forecast. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, overnight said crude oil stocks rose 600,000 barrels in the week.

Crude oil prices weakened in Asia on Thursday as some doubt is cast ahead of a weekly stocks report later in the day from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that is expected to show a drop in stocks to 994 million barrels from 1.577 billion.

Crude oil gained as tensions mounted in Syria, heightening geopolitical and crude oil supply risk in the Middle East.

Crude oil prices were also boosted as protesters stopped production at oil fields in Western Libya.

U.S. crude stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories declined and distillate stocks increased, API data showed.

 Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00 P.M	Trade Balance	-38.8B	-38.7B	STRONG
7.00 P.M	Unemployment Claims	336K	331K	STRONG
8.30 P.M	Fed Chairperson-Designate Yellen Testifies			STRONG
8.30 P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	1.6M	0.7M	MEDIUM

Trade Balance

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 9 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 4, 2013
FF Notes	A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported;
Why Traders Care	Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;
Also Called	International Trade;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Nov 21, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Fed Chairperson-Designate Yellen Testifies

FF Alert	Text of the testimony was unexpectedly released 17 hours earlier than the speaking time listed;
Description	Due to testify on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate Janet Yellen;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first she reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed’s website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility;
Why Traders Care	As the Chairperson-Designate of the central bank, volatility will likely be experienced during her speeches as traders attempt to predict her affect on the bank’s monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Reserve (Fed);

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect – there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Nov 20, 2013
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE Commodity Technical Analysis: 12 Nov

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1276	1271	1287	1293
SILVER	21.19	21.10	21.41	21.54
COPPER	3.2431	3.2270	3.2756	3.2920
CRUDE	94.37	93.60	95.64	96.14

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Silver prices fell to a three-and-a-half week low on Tuesday, as ongoing expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to unwind its stimulus program by the end of the year weighed.

Gold futures traded near the lowest level in almost four-weeks on Tuesday, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its asset purchase program at its December policy meeting.

Crude oil futures edged lower on Tuesday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing uncertainty over the duration of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program weighed.

SILVER 
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, silverfutures for December delivery traded at USD21.26 a troy ounce during European morning trade, down 0.3%.  Silver prices fell to a session low of USD21.23 a troy ounce earlier, the weakest level since October 17. The December contract ended 1.57% lower to settle at USD21.31 a troy ounce on Friday. 

Silver also breached a support level this week, closing at 21.30 and taking out 21.67 in its wake, which was the 50% retracement of the most recent uptrend. Support is at the last major low, 20.49, while 21.67 should now act as resistance. A breach of support at 20.49 opens up a retracement to the 2013 low of 18.23.
Silver ended with gains due to weak rupee despite renewed uncertainty over when Fed will scale back its stimulus measures.
The jobs growth was even more surprising as it came in a month when a budget standoff in Washington forced a 16-day government shutdown.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 53.93 tonnes to 10443.82 tonnes from 10497.75 tonnes.

GOLD 
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,281.00 a troy ounce, down 0.01%, in Asia.
Gold prices hit a session low of USD1,278.50 a troy ounce and high of USD1,288.40 a troy ounce on Monday in New York.

Gold had a bearish week, closing lower at 1285 and breaking support at the Fibonacci convergence area between 1301 and 1307. These levels were the 50% retracement of the long-term (2008 to 2011) uptrend, and 50% retracement of the July to August 2013 uptrends, respectively. This area should now act as resistance, while support comes in at the last major low at 1251. A breach of 1251 would be very bearish, as it would signal that gold’s downtrend off its 1921 high in 2011, is not over. The breach of 1251 opens up the 2013 low of 1180, then 1155, the 61.8% retracement of the long-term uptrend. The 1155 level is the ultimate technical target of the correction of the long-term uptrend.

Gold gains as rupee weakness supported prices despite speculation Fed could soon start scaling back its monetary stimulus.
The U.S. central bank could start cutting back on its $85 billion monthly bond purchases as early as next month.

Gold’s recent drop to below $1,300 has failed to attract demand in Asia as buyers wait on the sidelines on expectations that prices will weaken further.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.263 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.3%.

Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.257 a pound, the session low and a daily high of USD3.276 a pound.
The December contract settled 0.17% higher on Friday to end at USD3.254 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.222 a pound, the low from November 6 and resistance at USD3.308 a pound, the high from November 4.
Copper futures edged higher on Monday, after upbeat Chinese factory output data boosted future demand expectations from the world’s largest copper consumer.

Copper edged higher after upbeat Chinese factory output data boosted future demand expectations from the world’s largest copper consumer.
China’s production of refined copper rose 2.9 percent month-on-month to a second straight monthly record in October.
Market players now looked ahead to the outcome of a four-day meeting of China’s top Communist Party officials on Tuesday.

CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December traded at USD94.95 a barrel, down 0.20%, in Asia. The commodity hit a session low of USD94.12 and a high of USD95.38. 

Trade sanctions slapped on Iran because of its alleged nuclear ambitions have taken out more than 1 million barrels per day of oil from the global market and were a centerpiece of weekend talks among the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, Germany, France and Iran.
Crude oil prices slipped in early Asian trade Tuesday, giving back some of the gains overnight after talks between Iran and Western failed to reach an agreement that could ease sanctions on crude exports.

Crude oil edged up after Iran and six world powers failed to reach a deal on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Saudi Arabia produced 9.75 million barrels per day bpd of crude oil in October this year down from 10.1 million bpd in the previous month.
Kuwait’s oil minister said he expected OPEC to keep its crude oil output target unchanged at its next meeting.

Top 4 Commodities Technical Analysis For Today

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1294	1280	1324	1340
SILVER	21.34	21.04	21.98	22.32
COPPER	3.2301	3.2118	3.2621	3.2758
CRUDE	93.56	92.92	95.07	95.94

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

SILVER

Silver opened the day unchanged at 21.79/21.84 and traded alongside gold throughout the day, touching a low of 21.36/21.41 after the GDP data. A slow recovery throughout the remainder of the session left the metal to close at 21.63/21.68.

Silver closed lower today at 21.68. It is still holding the daily uptrend, in place since late June, which comes in right at 21.00. However, the risk is still lower, for a test of the 20.50 low from October 15th. Resistance is in the low 22’s, which have held silver in for the past 5 sessions.

The gold-silver ratio traded slightly lower at 60.36. Support is at the recent low at 58.62 and resistance is at this week’s high at 60.86.

Silver rose as weakness in rupee supported amid growing speculation the U.S. was moving closer to taking military action against Syria’s government.

An early end to stimulus could hurt precious metals by drawing investors away from non-interest-bearing assets.

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 44.99 tonnes to 10600.69 tonnes from 10555.70 tonnes.

 GOLD

Erratic trade prior to our open after the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25 percent. Gold opened the day at 1316.00/1317.00 and quickly touched a high of 1317.50/1318.50. The metal retreated after a better-than-expected GDP number fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will look to taper in December. After trading to a low of 1296.00/1297.00 the metal recovered to end the day at 1309.00/1310.00.

Gold closed lower today at 1309, but tested below 1300 on an intraday basis. There is support around 1300-1301, from psychological support at 1300 and from the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 rally at 1301. The top of the recent range has been 1328, and our bias is for a move lower so long as we stay below the 1330 level. We look for a test of the 1251 low from October.

Gold climbed to the Life time High as Rupee dropped and political tension over Syria increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value.

Western powers told the Syrian opposition to expect a strike against Syria President Bashar al-Assad’s forces within days

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.10 percent, or 0.90 tonnes, to 921.03 tonnes

 COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.242 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.15%.

Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.238 a pound, the session low and a daily high of USD3.255 a pound.
The December contract fell to USD3.222 a pound on Wednesday, the weakest level since October 10, before settling at USD3.237 a pound, down 0.66%.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.216 a pound, the low from October 10 and resistance at USD3.277 a pound, the high from November 6.

Copper futures traded near a four-week low on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to upcoming U.S. economic data and a policy meeting by the European Central Bank.

Copper crossed 500 mark as support seen due to weakness in rupee while a potential western strike on Syria made investor bets more cautious.

The economy of China is showing clear signs of stabilisation, helped by policy support and some improvement in global demand

In the US, recent data on durable goods, single family home sales and business spending on capital goods have been disappointing.

 CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery rose 0.19% to USD94.98 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The December contract settled higher by 1.53% at USD94.80 per barrel on Wednesday, crude’s best showing in a month.

 

Crude got a boost Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 1, compared to expectations for an increase of 1.63 million barrels. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 385.4 million barrels.

Oil futures traded higher during Thursday’s Asian session, building on gains from Wednesday’s session that were driven by supply concerns.

Crude rallied after a bigger than forecast drop in gasoline inventories calmed concerns over rising supplies.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.57 million barrels

Prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid concerns the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on economic growth.

Crude oil gained as tensions mounted in Syria, heightening geopolitical and crude oil supply risk in the Middle East.

Crude oil prices were also boosted as protesters stopped production at oil fields in Western Libya.

U.S. crude stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories declined and distillate stocks increased, API data showed.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00 P.M	Unemployment Rate	7.2%	7.3%	STRONG
7.00 P.M	Non-Farm Employment Change	148K	121K	STRONG
7.00 P.M	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	73.2	74.6	STRONG

Unemployment Rate

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 7 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 6, 2013
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Rate;

Non-Farm Employment Change

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 7 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 6, 2013
FF Notes	This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;
Why Traders Care	Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Dec 13, 2013
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;

Commodity Technical Outlook: 7th Nov

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1310	1303	1323	1329
SILVER	21.56	21.36	22.02	22.27
COPPER	3.2133	3.1896	3.2693	3.3016
CRUDE	93.83	92.86	95.58	96.36

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 

  SILVER
Silver followed gold higher overnight, opening at 21.90/21.95,  before trading to a high of 21.92/21.97. The metal retreated as  the dollar recovered, trading to a low of 21.72/21.77 prior to  closing at 21.75/21.80.

Silver is marginally higher at 21.80. The metal has traded  between 23.06 and 21.57 for the past week. The strong down  move from last Wednesday has bias to sell into any rally in the  metal toward 22.14 and 22.31 (38.2% and 50% levels). Key  down side level is 21.57.
The Gold Silver ratio at 60.45 is still close to resent 60.72 and  61.02 resistance levels. We had been bearish this ratio for the  past couple of months but the inability to break 58.85 has our  bias leaning to another up move. A break of 61.02 opens  October 1 high of 61.14.
Silver prices ended higher as a broadly weaker U.S. dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal.
Fed official said U.S. central bank should scale back its asset purchases only when the economy shows clearer signs of improvement.
Investors also looked ahead to upcoming U.S. economic data and a policy meeting by the European Central Bank.

GOLD
Gold improved overnight on dollar weakness, opening the day  at 1319.75/1320.75, before quickly touching a high of  1320.25/1321.25. Profit taking as equities jumped took the metal to an intraday low of 1314.25/1315.25 prior to concluding  the session at 1317.50/1318.50.

Gold is firmer today closing at 1318. Another day of tight ranges  with down side support coming in at 1305 and resistance at  1330. The good news for Gold bulls is that $1300 seems to be  providing some type of psychological support. The market will  need to close back above 1330 before any fresh buying  emerges. While below 1330 our view is that risk is for another  test of the down side.
Gold advanced as the dollar fell on strengthening expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will extend its monetary stimulus.
Fed policymaker John Williams said the central bank should wait for stronger evidence of growth before trimming its bond-buying programme
SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose 2.10 tonnes to 868.42 tonnes on Wednesday – the first increase since Oct. 22.

 COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.271 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.4%.

Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.251 a pound, the session low and a daily high of USD3.275 a pound.
The December contract fell to USD3.243 a pound on Tuesday, the weakest level since October 25, before clawing back to settle at USD3.258 a pound, up 0.17%.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.234 a pound, the low from October 25 and resistance at USD3.308 a pound, the high from November 4.
Copper futures bounced off a two-week low on Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar weakened amid ongoing uncertainty over the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Copper settled down gave up it’s gains amid ongoing uncertainty over the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
European Commission cut its forecast for euro zone growth and said that unemployment in the region remains at unacceptably high levels.
Top US Fed officials call for the Fed to lower the unemployment threshold at which it will begin hiking interest rates.

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery rose 0.19% to USD94.98 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The December contract settled higher by 1.53% at USD94.80 per barrel on Wednesday, crude’s best showing in a month.

Crude got a boost Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 1, compared to expectations for an increase of 1.63 million barrels. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 385.4 million barrels.
Oil futures traded higher during Thursday’s Asian session, building on gains from Wednesday’s session that were driven by supply concerns.
Crude rallied after a bigger than forecast drop in gasoline inventories calmed concerns over rising supplies.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 1.57 million barrels.
Prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks amid concerns the recent U.S. government shutdown created a drag on economic growth.

 

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00 PM	Advance GDP q/q	2.5%	2%	STRONG
7.30 PM	Unemployment Claims	340K	336K	STRONG
7.00 PM	Advance GDP Price Index q/q	0.6%	1.5%	MEDIUM

Advance GDP q/q

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 8 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends;
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health;
Also Called	GDP First Release, Estimated GDP;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Nov 14, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Advance GDP Price Index q/q

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 8 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends;
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4).
Why Traders Care	It’s the broadest measure of inflation, encompassing all activities included in GDP, and is a primary instrument that the central bank uses to assess inflation;
Also Called	GDP Deflator;
Acro Expand	Gross Domestic Product (GDP);

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE- Commodity Technical Outlook: 5th Nov

Technical Levels

Commodity	Support 1	Support 2	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
Gold	1310	1305	1320	1327
Silver	21.59	21.36	21.85	22.03
Copper	3.259	3.250	3.270	3.385
Crude	94.33	94.04	94.90	95.21

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

GOLD

The gold market waffled around unchanged early this morning but seemed to catch a bit of a bid into mid session. 

With modest weakness in the Dollar, higher equities and countervailing US scheduled data, the gold market was lucky to have come away with a slightly positive bias this morning. Factory orders were a touch weaker than expectations, while the ISM New York current Business Index showed a fairly significant jump. All things considered, the magnitude of the rise in the regional ISM might have countervailed some of the major headline status of the Factory orders results. This morning Gold did manage to rally in the face of the ISM improvement and then it fell back somewhat in the wake of the weaker factory orders report! In other words, gold seemed to need positive US data to rally this morning and that would seem to fly in the face of gold’s patterns last week.

SILVER

December silver fell back into the US scheduled data window and then recovered 9 cents in the face of the stronger than expected ISM report. 

Unfortunately December silver also fell back in the wake of the slightly softer than expected US Factory orders results. Therefore traders could suggest that silver is indeed acting like a physical commodity market in need of positive progression in the economy again and that in turn would seem to downplay the threat of tapering and the threat of adverse currency market action.

COPPER

After an initial rally on Friday, December copper prices appeared for some traders to lose their initial positive tone, and finished last week roughly 4.00 cents below their weekly highs. 

Many in the market feel that the most notable development for copper last week was improved Chinese economic data and slightly better than expected US economic data. However, copper recently saw a halt in a long held pattern of daily LME exchange copper stock declines. 

In addition, there was also an increase in weekly Shanghai copper stocks at the end of last week. The market was also presented with a series of higher copper production readings from China, Mexico and South America last week. Some traders that while supply has become a slightly negative issue for the market, and hopes for improved copper demand was able to strengthen copper prices last week in the face of overt weakness in a number of other commodities. 

CRUDE

The oil complex spent time on both sides of unchanged today as the market continues to digest bearish US oil fundamentals and technicals against a backdrop of mixed external price drivers.  Equities have remained mostly in positive territory over the last twenty four hours while the US dollar Index finally was hit with a light round of profit taking selling ending the day in negative territory and thus a slightly positive price driver for the oil complex today.

Global Economic Data

Time	Data	Prv	Exp	Impact
8:30 PM	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	54.4	54.2	High
8:30 PM	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	38.4	41.1	Low

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 4, 2013
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Source changed series from unadjusted to seasonally adjusted as of January 2001. Source changed series calculation formula as of Feb 2008;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

IBD/TIPP Economic optimism

Source	TIPP (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Dec 11, 2013
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;