COMEX Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold climbed higher overnight to open at 1338.00/1339.00. It moved up marginally to a high of 1339.25/1340.25 as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. The metal then declined to a low of 1333.00/1334.00 as global equities rebounded with the S&P setting a new intra-day high. It traded within range for most of the day to close at 1335.00/1336.00.

Gold had a bearish outside week, closing lower at 1335 and completely retracing last week’s gains. This is a potential reversal warning. The support level to watch is 1312, the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 uptrend. We have been bullish, but would revisit our view should 1312 be broken to the downside. Resistance is at the weekly high of 1392. Gold recovered its losses to settle flat as the dollar edged lower, though the market posted weekly drop following the Fed’s latest meet. An escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Crimea kept investors cautious, giving support to gold. SPDR gold trust holding gained by 4.19 tonnes i.e. 0.52% to 816.97 tonnes from 812.78 tonnes.

 SILVER

Silver was relatively unchanged overnight, opening at 20.41/20.46. It rose to a high of 20.45/20.50 before following gold lower to close at the session low of 20.28/20.33.

Silver had a bearish week, closing at 20.28. The metal continues to trade under the downtrend that has been in place since April 2011. Support is at the base of the consolidation that has been in place since June 2013, at the 18.20 level. We are neutral while silver continues to trade within this consolidation range. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 65.79. It is well supported from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.89. Resistance is at the double top in the 67.47 to 67.56 area. Silver remained under pressure as the dollar firmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate hike in the first half of 2015. The central bank said that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by an additional $10 billion to a total of $55 billion a month. The Fed also updated its forward guidance, discarding the 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering when to increase borrowing costs.

 COPPER

On the week, Comex copper prices ended down 0.02%, as ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

  Attention now shifts to the release of HSBC’s March China Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,965 contracts as of last week, up 24.5% from net shorts of 10,473 in the preceding week. Copper settled flat due to the weak outlook toward Chinese growth and lack of key market movers China’s copper market will see a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2014 through a rise in copper production as imports surpass growth. A stronger RMB which eased concerns over China’s copper demand was also behind the higher copper prices.

 CRUDE

The HSBC data for March showed a drop to 48.1, compared to a forecast of 48.7 expected and to a final of 48.5 for the previous month. A figure below 50 implies contraction with the the latest number part of a string of disappointing China data suggesting a deepening economic slowdown at the start of 2014. “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reading for March suggests that China’s growth momentum continued to slow down. Weakness is broadly based with domestic demand softening further,” said HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.

“We expect Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower.” On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $99.20 a barrel Crude Oil, down 0.26%. Crude oil settled 0.57% higher, or 56 cents, at $99.46 a barrel, last week on speculation over the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and amid indications the U.S. economy is improving. Investors continued to monitor events in the Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have underpinned prices. The political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia. Crude oil prices stayed weaker in Asia on Monday after the China HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index for March unexpectedly fell, placing demand doubts in the market about the world’s second largest crude oil importer. 

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1320	1313	1343	1350
SILVER	20.14	20.00	20.42	20.64
COPPER	2.9696	2.9186	3.0206	3.0473
CRUDE	98.39	97.32	100.39	101.32

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.15P.M	Flash Manufacturing PMI	57.1	56.6	MEDIUM

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source	Markit(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release	Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes	Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar – early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Flash release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in May 2012;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand	Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);

Weekly Technical Analysis For SIngapore SGX and Malaysia KLCI

Weekly Technical view on STI
This was the week in which only green candle was formed by STI as there was not a major change in the trading range of STI it opened at 3071 and made a high of 3101 where gave the closing at the same level as it was for the last week candle @3073.
Long Legged Doji was formed by this week candle. As it has long upper & lower shadow with Doji as the shorter trading range in the middle
Weekly wrap of STI:

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3071.87
HIGH	3101.86
LOW	3053.59
CLOSE	3073.39
CHANGE (In Points)	0.33
% CHANGE	0.010

Macroeconomic factors:

• A good jump in the Trade Confidence Index as it’s the highest in two years at 115 i.e. 10 points. Announced by the HSBC
• Home price inflation in China slowed in Feb also as it’s the continuous second month where average for new home price rose 8.7% for the 70 major cities in China. If calculated for MOM basis price rose 0.3% for Feb.
• Statement issued by the Finance Ministry of Singapore on Tuesday said (SMEs) small medium enterprises will receive almost Q3 of sum disbursed, which calculated over 74000 employers will be receiving around S$800 Million by wage credit scheme, pay outs by March 31.
• SGX is about to revise the fee structure which will be applicable from 2nd May 2014 as to make the trading more cost effective the clearing fee would be reduced by one fifth from 0.04% to 0.325% of contract value.
• Economists forecasted 3.8% of Growth lower than expected as 3.9%

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• As the performance of the STI was in a very range bound for this week and closing for the week was as the same for the last week. STI formed the Long Legged Doji candle for this week.
• Studding Bollinger bands chart pattern it’s very clear that the market is in a very range bound conditions as its not able to maintain itself above 3100 and closed at 3073.
• Technically STI can fall for multiple support and it would be possible by the global economic factor & market sentiment to sustain above the mark of 3100.

Technical Indicators:

MACD is moving below the base and performing flat where RSI is at 44.51 CCI is also going down and is @ -52

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3040	3000	2955	3130	3170	3210

Weekly wrap of KLCI:

KLCI closed Positive this week as it makes the green candle for this week after the red weekly candle.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed in this week, as Green candle formed for this week was followed by the red candle of the last week where the open & close for this week was formed in the range of the last week candle.

 

Weekly Technical view on KLCI

KLCI WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	1806.15
HIGH	1821.88
LOW	1802.88
CLOSE	1820.48
CHANGE (In Points)	15.36
% CHANGE	0.850

Market Forecast for week ahead:

• KLCI took the up move for this week after the two continuous down trend for two weeks 
• The 50 days EMA’ is trading at 1778 where 20 days EMA is at 1814.
• For the coming week the KLCI can take a upside movement but on the envelope channel indicator it seems consolidate in the range of 1790 to 1835

Technical Indicators:

The RSI is moving exactly above the base line at 53.92 else CCI is performing at -21

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
1805	1795	1780	1835	1850	1870

COMEX Technical Anlaysis Report

GOLD
Gold spiked overnight as investors awaited news on possible sanctions against Russia after Crimea voted to leave the Ukraine. The move however was short lived and the metal quickly retreated to open virtually unchanged at 1377.50/1378.50. Sideways trade throughout the day until selling interest emerged as the dollar started to recovered, taking the metal to a low of 1369.25/1370.25 prior to concluding the session at 1372.00/1373.00.
Gold had a bearish day today, making a new intraday high but then closing lower at 1372; a potential reversal warning. RSI is showing bearish divergence, having failed to make a new high on the new price high. While the longer-term uptrend still looks healthy, gold may face a test of the uptrend support which currently comes in at 1339. There should also be support from the top of the previous range, at 1355. Resistance is at the intraday high in the 1383 area.
Gold prices fell as a sharp rally in U.S. equities triggered profit-taking after bullion briefly rose in last some sessions.
Investors’ appetite for risk diminished in view of increasing political tensions and economic troubles, which benefit gold.
SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.81 tonnes i.e. 0.47% to 812.78 tonnes from 816.59 tonnes.
SILVER
Silver moved higher and later retreated alongside gold overnight to open at 21.23/21.28. It quickly touched a low of 21.20/21.25 before proceeding to an intraday high of 21.40/21.45. The metal concluded the session at 21.24/21.29.
Silver closed lower today at 21.24. The metal has struggled to break out of its sideways range. Support is at the recent low of 20.61, with resistance at Friday’s high of 21.79. We remain neutral.
Silver dropped tracking weak gold prices after Crimea voted to join Russia and leave Ukraine on Sunday with no widespread violence
Fed will most likely to announce another $10 billion cut to its bond-buying stimulus after solid U.S. retail sales and employment data
Investors remained cautious after Russia launched new military exercises near its border with Ukraine, showing no sign of backing down on plans to annex Crimea.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.922 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.946 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.15%, or $0.004 cents.The May copper contract rose 0.94%, or 0.275 cents to settle at $2.950 a pound on Friday.Futures were likely to find support at $2.912 a pound, the low from March 14 and resistance at $2.977 a pound, the high from March 13.
Results showed that nearly 97% of voters in Crimea chose to break away from Ukraine and join Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the European Union and the U.S.
Russia’s lower house of parliament has stated that it will pass legislation allowing Crimea to join the nation in the “very near future.”
U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington rejected the results of the referendum and warned that the U.S. was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow.
Western countries have threatened to ratchet up sanctions against Russia if it does not back down on annexing Crimea.
Copper has been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as growing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.
The industrial metal fell to $2.908 a pound on March 12, the lowest since July 2010.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery was flat to trade at $1,378.90 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery shed 0.15% to trade at $21.38 an ounce.
Market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.
Copper prices edged lower on Monday, as concerns escalated over Ukraine after results of Sunday’s referendum showed voters in Crimea voting to join Russia..
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in May traded at $97.56 a barrel, down 0.07%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.01 a barrel and a high of $98.91 a barrel.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.97, or 1.8%, to $106.24 a barrel on Monday, its lowest settlement price since Feb. 4.
Investors continued to monitor events in Europe, after over 90% of Crimean voters on Sunday chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea’s Parliament on Monday formally asked to join the Russian Federation.
Sanctions followed as expected.
European Union foreign ministers imposed travel bans and asset freezes on 21 people they have linked to the push to have Crimea secede from Ukraine to be annexed by Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama also imposed sanctions on several Russian officials involved in the incursion of Crimea, which included freezing assets in the U.S.
Still, markets were expecting more widespread action from the West, and the response enticed investors away from oil by allaying fears the conflict could escalate and threaten energy supply from Russia.
Investors took hit-or-miss U.S. economic indicators in stride.
Data revealed earlier that U.S. industrial production rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain. Industrial production in January was revised to a 0.2% fall from a previously estimated 0.3% decline.
Crude price were slightly weaker in Asian trade on Tuesday as relatively tame sanctions from the West on Russia, the world’s top oil producer, over the annexation of the Crimean region of the Ukraine allayed concerns of any abrupt cutoff in supplies.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1368	1358	1388	1398
SILVER	21.13	20.89	21.64	21.91
COPPER	2.9865	2.9600	3.0300	3.0470
CRUDE	98.20	97.50	99.42	100.64

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Building Permits	0.94M	0.97M	STRONG
6.00P.M	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Housing Starts	0.88M	0.92M	MEDIUM
6.30P.M	TIC Long-Term Purchases	-45.9B	23.4B	MEDIUM

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why TradersCare	It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called	Residential Building Permits;
Source	Census Bureau(latest release)

Core CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 15, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data – so do traders;
Why TradersCare	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called	CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Housing Starts

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction;
Why TradersCare	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;

COMMODITY Technical Analysis Report

GOLD
Gold advanced overnight to open at the intraday low of 1360.50/1361.50 following the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. It surged to a high of 1370.50/1371.50 on dollar weakness as yields on 10- year U.S. Treasuries gave back some of last week’s gains. The metal finally closed the day at 1369.50/1370.50.
Gold broke out of its range of the past two weeks, taking out resistance just below 1360, and closing higher at 1370. RSI has turned back to test the 70 level, confirming the bullish move. The next resistance is at 1374, the 76.4% retracement of the move from 1433 to 1182. We are bullish so long as we hold the recent lows in the 1326/27 area.
SILVER
Silver opened the day only slightly higher at 20.98/21.03. Copper sold off to a three-and-a-half year low on worries about credit troubles in China, which can potentially lead to an oversupply of the metal. This tempered silver’s strength and saw the metal dip to a low of 20.93/20.98 before recovering to a high of 21.39/21.44 on the back of gold. It closed the session at 21.33/21.38.
Silver also closed higher at 21.38. There is a daily downtrend in place since the high on Feb 24th. While it is still possible that the formation since silver’s breakout is a bullish flag, the flag retraced a considerable part of the breakout, which is not ideal. Also there is a pattern of declining RSI. We are currently neutral until silver can make a break out of its current downtrend. Support is at the recent low of 20.61.
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 64.11. Uptrend support comes in at 62.58. Resistance is at the 2014 high of 65.37
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery tumbled to a session low of $2.908 a pound, the weakest level since July 2010.
Copper last traded at $2.917 a pound during European morning hours, down 1.2%, or $0.035 cents. The May copper contract lost 2.62%, or $0.079 cents, on Tuesday to settle at $2.952 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $2.844 a pound, the low from July 2010 and resistance at $3.057 a pound, the high from March 11.
Investors remained cautious after data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 6.8% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January.
The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.
The downbeat data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world’s biggest consumer of the industrial metal.
Copper prices plunged to the lowest level since July 2010 on Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $98.14 a barrel, up 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.57 a barrel and a high of $99.63 a barrel.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled down 0.5%, at $108.02 a barrel on Wednesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, well above market expectations for a 2.2-million barrel increase.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370 million barrels as of last week.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 533,000 barrels, below expectations for a withdrawal of 867,000 barrels.
Oil prices came under additional pressure on reports that the U.S. plans to release up to 5 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to a government source.
Crude oil prices gained in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off bearish data overnight that revealed U.S. stockpiles shot up last week and sent the near-term contract to a one-month low, with the focus now on data from China on industrial output and retail sales.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1353	1336	1379	1388
SILVER	21.07	20.68	21.45	21.83
COPPER	2.9923	2.9586	3.0533	3.1183
CRUDE	97.16	96.33	99.21	101.26

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.2%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.3%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	323K	334K	STRONG

Core Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called	Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Retail Sales m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders Care	It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called	Advance Retail Sales;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

STI Daily Technical Analysis View

Market Review:
Today the STI gave a gap down opening by 16 points 3113.41 with the volume of 135.6Million. Today complete red candle was formed for the day with a gap down from the previous day candle and made a Star Position.
Further STI made the Marubozu Pattern that shows the open is close to the high & the close is near to the low of the day.

STI Day Performance
Open	3113.41
High	3115.21
Low	3097.43
Close	3097.43
Change(Points)	-29.7
% Change	-0.949
Volume	1897.4M
Rise	166
Fall	236
Unch	656

Market forecast:
As STI formed inverted hammer yesterday , on the back of this STI opens with gap down and traded lower side whole day and formed bearish candlestick pattern.
Today STI gives a signal to bearish cross over between  its 50 & 20 day EMAs here 20 day EMA level now flat @ 3099.02 and 50 day EMA @ 3096,  flat  direction of shorter period EMA could be reverse and will give bearish cross over if STI will continue the same bearish.
Support level:
STI having immediate support @ 3120 level and below this level it can take support @3105-3090 will be the support zone for STI.
Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3135 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3145-3160

STRAITS TIME LEVELS
Support 1	3120
Support 2	3105
Support 3	3090
Resistance 1	3135
Resistance 2	3145
Resistance 3	3160

Technical indicators:
With the recovery now Technical indicators MACD trading in bullish zone in Daily chart , RSI trading above @50.77 near to centreline and CCI crossed its +100 mark @ 24.41
Important Factor for today:-

• SGX announced today that it is coming with the new set of Asian currency futures to expand its suite of foreign exchange future (FX) & launching options on china A50 futures, as this will be available in the 3Q 2014
• Singapore largest retail warehouse store Big Box is set to open its doors in the 4Q2014
• A good boom is expected for this FY in Offshore RMB bond issuance by a strong policy support, continued cash crunch in the mainland and a huge amount of refinancing expected this year.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
DairyFarm 900	9.370	2.741	JMH 400US	59.040	-1.600
Creative 50	2.550	2.823	JSH 500US	33.600	-2.665
Goodpack	2.010	3.608	UOB	20.040	-2.053
SATS	3.060	2.000	Jardine C&C	39.110	-1.012
ManhattanRes	0.505	12.222	SIA	10.200	-1.923

COMEX : Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD
Gold edged marginally higher overnight to open at 1339.50/1340.50. It dropped to a low of 1335.50/1336.50 as the U.S. Employment Trends Index (ETI) beat forecasts to move higher indicating that the Fed will continue trimming its monthly asset purchase program. The metal then surged to a high of 1344.25/1345.25 following news that Russian troops opened fire while taking s iege of a Ukrainian military post in Crimea and concerns over Chinese trade data that showed a fall in exports. It consolidated later in the afternoon to finally close at 1341.00/1342.00.
Gold was unchanged today, closing at 1341. Trading for the past two weeks has been in a sideways range, characterized by a lack of momentum. Gold is now getting close to testing an uptrend line which comes in around 1324. We remain bullish so long as the low of 1307 holds. Resistance is at the top of the range in the 1354 area.
Gold recovered to settled flat as investors continued to monitor events in Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have heightened demand.
Precious metals were lower earlier as expectations that Fed will continue to gradually reduce the pace of its stimulus program weighed.
SPDR gold trust holding gained by 7.50 tonnes i.e. 0.93% to 812.70 tonnes from 805.20 tonnes.
SILVER
Silver moved higher overnight to open at 20.98/21.03, which was also the session high. It dropped to a low of 20.80/20.85 prior to concluding the session at 20.88/20.93.
Silver closed lower today at 20.88. The metal has now retraced a good part of its gains from its breakout on February 14th. While the breakout was very strong with good momentum behind it initially, RSI has now fallen from a high of 76.76 to present levels at 47.75. If silver falls back into its previous range, with resistance in the 20.60’s, it will be bearish for the metal. We are currently neutral.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 64.36. Support from the uptrend comes in at 62.50. Resistance is at the most recent major high of 65.37.
Silver seen under pressure after strong U.S. jobs data eased worries of an economic slowdown and dimmed the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Market players will be anticipating what will be closely-watched U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment later in the week for further indications of the strength of the economy
The gold/silver ratio hit a fresh five-week high at 64.4 as silver underperformed on Monday.
COPPER
Copper settled down -1.77% recovered from the day’s low on speculation China’s government is taking steps to soothe nerves jangled by a poor trade report that inflamed fears of flagging growth in the world’s top user of metals.
Adding to the downward pressure, China’s exports unexpectedly tumbled in February, swinging the trade balance into deficit and adding to fears of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, even though the Lunar New Year holidays were blamed for the slide.
A further hit came from China’s imports of unwrought copper, which fell 30 percent in February from January due to weak Shanghai copper prices. Imports were still up 27 percent from last year’s levels, however. China is the world’s top user of copper, accounting for 40 percent of global demand. But much of its imports are used as collateral to raise funds, which are then loaned out in China’s shadow banking sector.
Worries that these financing deals could unravel have intensified since China recorded its first domestic bond default on Friday, when loss-making solar equipment producer Chaori Solar missed an interest payment. Elsewhere, U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in February despite the icy weather that gripped much of the nation, easing fears of an abrupt economic slowdown and keeping the Fed on track to continue reducing its monetary stimulus.
CRUDE
Crude oil settled down -2.01% after poor Chinese trade figures spooked investors with fears emerging-market economies are cooling and will consume less fuel and energy.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase. According to customs data, China’s February crude oil imports totaled 23.05mmt, down 18.1% from January.
The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. The data added to fears over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, and overshadowed last Friday’s stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report for February. Pressure is mounting as expectations of an increase in stockpiles in the world’s biggest oil consumer as cold weather ebbed, reducing demand for heating fuels.
The survey, taken ahead of weekly inventory reports from the API and from the U.S. Department of Energy’s EIA, showed crude stocks climbed 2.2mbls on average for the week to March 7. Also the US will signal its resolve to protect its NATO allies near Russia’s borders on Tuesday with the start of the first joint military training exercises in the region since the Kremlin intervened in Ukraine. A tanker that loaded oil from a rebel-held port in eastern Libya has been halted by government forces but it has not yet reached a port controlled by government forces…
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1331	1320	1348	1355
SILVER	20.69	20.50	21.07	21.26
COPPER	3.0823	3.0541	3.1458	3.1811
CRUDE	100.37	98.40	102.30	103.56

Commodity Contract- S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.30P.M	JOLTS Job Openings	3.99M	4.02M	STRONG

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 8, 2014
FF Notes	It’s released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);

COMEX: Technical Analysis View

GOLD
Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1351.00/1352.00. It moved to a high of 1351.25/1352.25 before declining quickly to a low of 1326.50/1327.50 alongside crude futures as the dollar strengthened while U.S. 10-Year Treasury prices fell sharply following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that supports further tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Thereafter, the metal recovered and traded within range to close the day at 1337.50/1338.50.
Gold closed higher this week at 1338, the fifth straight up-week (though last week was essentially unchanged). However, we were unable to close substantially through the resistance level at 1337.83, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013. Nevertheless, the uptrend is gaining momentum, with RSI (weekly) currently at 56.87. There is strong support from 1301 to 1308, which represents two 50% Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50% retracement of the long- last downtrend. After 1338, the next resistance level is 1361, the swing high from November 2013.
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at the session high of 21.38/21.43. It followed gold to a low of 20.74/20.79, prior to concluding the session at 20.89/20.94, which is close to the 100day moving average of 20.92.
Silver closed at 20.89, the second lower close in a row. There is a strong downtrend off the 2011 high that is acting as resistance; this currently comes in at 22.14. Support comes in at the bottom of the 2014 range at 19.00. Silver remains trapped within a sideways trend and we are currently neutral.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at the current 64.03 level. Support from the uptrend comes in at 61.54. We are bullish the ratio so long as the previous low at 59.92 holds, targeting a retracement back to the 2013 high of 67.47.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $3.231 a pound, the most since February 26.
Copper prices last traded at $3.222 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.25%.
The May copper contract rallied 1.34% on Tuesday to settle at $3.214 a pound, as investor demand for riskier assets improved amid easing tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.166 a pound, the low from March 4 and resistance at $3.239 a pound, the high from February 26.
China has set its gross domestic product growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, as widely expected, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5%, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday.
The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Keqiang, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country’s economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April US$102.37 a barrel, down 0.20%.
NYMEX crude for April settled up 1%, or $1.02 a barrel, to end Friday at $102.58 a barrel, falling $0.01 cent on the week.
Last week, an upbeat jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. economic data seen in the past few months and underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to gradually taper its bond-buying program.
Gains were limited as concerns over Chinese domestic bond defaults underlined worries over the health of the Asian nation’s economy.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase.
Imports rose 10.1%, compared to forecasts for an 8% increase. According to customs data, China’s February crude oil imports totaled 23.05 million metric tons, down 18.1% from January.
The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.
A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 2% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while producer price inflation declined 2%, compared to forecasts for a 1.9% drop.
The disappointing data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world’s second biggest oil consumer.
In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
Crude oil prices eased in early Asian trade Monday, but remain supported by events in the Ukraine where tension over moves by neighboring Russia, the world’s top oil producer, in the Crimean region have heightened concerns over supply..
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1325	1312	1352	1365
SILVER	20.59	20.28	21.37	21.84
COPPER	3.1115	3.0665	3.2365	3.3165
CRUDE	101.79	100.45	103.13	103.69

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
4.45P.M	FOMC Member Plosser Speaks			MEDIUM

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Description	Due to participate in a panel discussion titled “Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism” at the Bank of France, in Paris;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member 2008, 2011, and 2014;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Technical Analysis View of COMEX

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1346.00/1347.00 following mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It dipped briefly to a low of 1344.25/1345.25 before surging to a four-month high of 1354.25/1355.25 as oil and safe-haven currencies reported gains while global equities retreated in face of the impending crisis in Ukraine. The metal closed the day at 1350.00/1351.00.
Gold had a very strong close today, ending the session at 1351 and clearly trading through resistance in the 1337 area. This opens up a full retracement to the 1433 high from August 2013. Resistance is at the most recent high of 1361 from October 2013. There is support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 1310.
Gold gained as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia bolstered demand for assets perceived to be relatively safe, hitting riskier investments such as equities.
A recent series of weak U.S. data that showed how much a cold snap has hurt activity in US, coupled with signs of a growth slowdown in China, boosted gold prices
A U.S. Non farm payrolls report on Friday should give investors a further opportunity to gauge the country’s growth.
SILVER
Silver advanced overnight to open at 21.43/21.48. It dropped to a low of 21.39/21.44 before following gold to a high of 21.63/21.68 and then coming under selling pressure to close near opening levels at 21.48/21.53.
Silver had a small move higher today at 21.48, but is still in consolidation mode. The price action since the big up-move on February 14th has been disappointing. Support is at the 200-daymoving average of 20.98, followed by the top of the previous range, 20.64. Resistance is at the recent high of 22.17.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 63.07. It has will be key. Confirmation of today’s down move would open up the moved back into its previous uptrend after a false break lower in February. Uptrend support comes in at 63.07. We are neutral.
Silver rallied tracking gold prices as the chance of military conflict in Ukraine mounted following Russia’s seizing of control of the Crimean peninsula.
The Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.35% i.e. 35.89 tonnes to 10168.47 tonnes from 10204.36 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $3.160 a pound, the weakest since November 21.
Copper prices last traded at $3.169 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.6%. The May copper contract lost 0.42% on Friday to settle at $3.187 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.146 a pound, the low from November 21 and resistance at $3.212 a pound, the high from February 28.
Geopolitical tensions mounted over the weekend after Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Sunday that his country was “on the brink of disaster” after Russia’s parliament authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force in Ukraine.
Ukraine has put its forces on combat readiness and U.S. President Barack Obama warned Russia not to intervene. The U.S. is also considering imposing sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday.
Meanwhile, lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment.
Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since November on Monday, as tension in the Ukraine flared over the weekend and amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at 104.82 a barrel, down 0.10%, after hitting an overnight session low of $103.36 a barrel and a high of $105.22 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $2.13, or 2%, to $111.20 a barrel.
Russia, the world’s biggest oil producer, sent troops into Crimea, a peninsula in Ukraine. The move stoked fears that there could be a disruption in supply in both crude and refined oil products.
Also supporting crude, the Commerce Department on Monday reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Personal spending for December was revised down to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.4%.
The report added that personal income rose 0.3%, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a flat reading in December.
Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which is stripped of food and energy items, inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January, in line with expectations, after rising 0.1% in December.
The core PCE price index rose at an annualized rate of 1.2%, above forecasts for a 1.1% increase, after rising at a rate of 1.1% in December.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1335	1321	1360	1369
SILVER	21.28	21.12	21.64	21.84
COPPER	3.2030	3.1855	3.2425	3.2665
CRUDE	103.50	102.09	105.77	106.63

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	44.9	45.6	LOW

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 2, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;
Acro Expand	Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP);

COMEX Daily Technical Analysis Outlook

GOLD

 Gold remained relatively unchanged overnight, opening at the intraday high of 1332.75/1333.75. It declined steadily as a string of mostly positive U.S. economic data showed a rise in pending home sales and consumer spending. The S&P hit a record high as the metal continued its decline to close at the day’s low of 1320.50/1321.50. After the close, the metal moved higher following news that Russia landed troops at a military air base in Ukraine.

 Gold closed slightly lower this week at 1321, after three successive weeks higher. The weekly chart looks bullish, having formed a bottom at 1182 in December, and reaching an intra week high in the 1345 area. Support is at 1301-1308, which forms a Fibonacci convergence zone. The Fibonacci levels represent the 50% retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend and the 50% retracement of the September to December downtrend (at 1308). Resistance is at 1361, the high from November 2013. RSI is confirming the trend higher, and the last signal in MACD in the weekly chart was a buy. Lastly, the Positive Directional Movement Index (DMI) line crossed bullishly through the Negative DMI line.

 Gold settled flat as U.S. equities climbed, but yellow metal still posted monthly gain as persistent concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy boosted prices.

 Data showed the U.S. government slashed its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth in the latest sign of a loss of momentum

 Gold gained in February mostly due to signs of economic weakness in China and the United States as well as political and economic turmoil in Ukraine.

 SILVER

 Silver opened at the session high of 21.36/21.41, remaining mostly unchanged overnight. It followed gold’s decline to close at the session low of 21.20/21.25.

 Silver closed lower at 21.20, after three up weeks. There is a downtrend off the April 2011 high, which currently comes in at 22.33. RSI also failed just above resistance in the 53 area, currently at 50.78. We will need to see a break up through 22.33 to attract more buyers. Support is at the lows of the recent consolidation in the 18.80 level.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 62.53, after making a false break lower through its trend line last week. The new, re-drawn uptrend currently comes in at 61.37. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.24.

Silver settled down after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the bank will continue tapering its monthly bond purchases

Prices seen pressure with investors opting for the riskier equity assets after a couple of encouraging economic data from the U.S. with consumer sentiment rising

Report showed the U.S. economy to have grown much less than initially indicated in the fourth quarter of 2013.

 COPPER

Copper settled down -0.55% as lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment. Investors were pondering improvement in the consumer confidence index and government officials’ remarks on the Ukraine crisis.

The US Commerce Department announced Friday that the 4Q GDP growth for the country was revised to 2.4% QoQ, lower than estimate and Q3’s growth. The figure raised speculations that the Fed may possibly suspend QE taper. In the euro zone, inflation remained stable, cooling expectation for monetary easing by the European Central Bank.

 In this context, the US dollar index fell to 79.772, help LME copper prices pare declines and finish at USD 7,012.3/mt, down USD 18.5/mt. In the US, GDP growth for Q4 2013 was revised down to 2.4%, missing the 2.5% forecast.

 In other vital news, political crisis in Ukraine continued to upgrade. Russia’s parliament has approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for Russian forces to be used in Ukraine “until the normalisation of the political situation in the country”.

 US President Barack Obama warned Russia that it should rethink its military intervention in Ukraine, and US government officials said Obama is considering not attending June’s G8 Summit in Sochi, Russia, and reassessing economic relations between US and Russia. In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for an indication of the strength of the recovery in the labor market and the future course of monetary policy.

 CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April traded at 103.77, up 1.15%, on the risk of military conflict in the Ukraine and possibility of continued cold weather in the United States.

Last week, crude futures for April settled up 0.19%, or $0.19 cents, to end the week at $102.59 a barrel.

Oil’s gains came as the U.S. dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro on Friday after data showed that the annual rate of consumer inflation in the euro zone rose by a more-than-expected 0.8% in February, dampening speculation the European Central Bank will add to stimulus at its upcoming policy meeting.

 Meanwhile, forecasts for freezing temperatures across most parts of the central and northeast U.S. over the next couple of weeks boosted prices as well.

 Gains last week however were limited after the Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised down to an annual rate of 2.4%, from a preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Analysts had expected a downward revision to 2.5%.

 The disappointing data added to concerns that the economic recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

 Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged recent weakness in U.S. data, saying it indicates softness in the economy.

 Crude oil prices gained in Asian trade on Monday as tension between Russia and the West over the Ukraine lifted risk assets broadly.

 Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1316	1318	1345	1354
SILVER	21.03	20.76	21.54	21.69
COPPE	3.2253	3.2121	3.2528	3.2670
CRUDE	101.94	101.29	103.10	104.26

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
7.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.2%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	ISM Manufacturing PMI	51.3	52.3	STRONG

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis(latest release)
Measures	Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 28, 2014
FF Notes	This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because Retail Sales, which also covers consumer spending, is released about 2 weeks earlier;
Why Traders Care	Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It’s one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy;
Also Called	Consumer Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures;

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source	Institute for Supply Management(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 1, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand	The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);