Archive for March, 2014

GOLD
Gold climbed higher overnight to open at 1338.00/1339.00. It moved up marginally to a high of 1339.25/1340.25 as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. The metal then declined to a low of 1333.00/1334.00 as global equities rebounded with the S&P setting a new intra-day high. It traded within range for most of the day to close at 1335.00/1336.00.
Gold had a bearish outside week, closing lower at 1335 and completely retracing last week’s gains. This is a potential reversal warning. The support level to watch is 1312, the 38.2% retracement of the 2014 uptrend. We have been bullish, but would revisit our view should 1312 be broken to the downside. Resistance is at the weekly high of 1392. Gold recovered its losses to settle flat as the dollar edged lower, though the market posted weekly drop following the Fed’s latest meet. An escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Crimea kept investors cautious, giving support to gold. SPDR gold trust holding gained by 4.19 tonnes i.e. 0.52% to 816.97 tonnes from 812.78 tonnes.
 SILVER
Silver was relatively unchanged overnight, opening at 20.41/20.46. It rose to a high of 20.45/20.50 before following gold lower to close at the session low of 20.28/20.33.
Silver had a bearish week, closing at 20.28. The metal continues to trade under the downtrend that has been in place since April 2011. Support is at the base of the consolidation that has been in place since June 2013, at the 18.20 level. We are neutral while silver continues to trade within this consolidation range. The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 65.79. It is well supported from the uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.89. Resistance is at the double top in the 67.47 to 67.56 area. Silver remained under pressure as the dollar firmed after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at an interest rate hike in the first half of 2015. The central bank said that it would reduce its monthly bond buying program by an additional $10 billion to a total of $55 billion a month. The Fed also updated its forward guidance, discarding the 6.5% unemployment threshold for considering when to increase borrowing costs.
 COPPER
On the week, Comex copper prices ended down 0.02%, as ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.
  Attention now shifts to the release of HSBC’s March China Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing, due Monday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper shorts totaled 21,965 contracts as of last week, up 24.5% from net shorts of 10,473 in the preceding week. Copper settled flat due to the weak outlook toward Chinese growth and lack of key market movers China’s copper market will see a surplus of 400,000 tons in 2014 through a rise in copper production as imports surpass growth. A stronger RMB which eased concerns over China’s copper demand was also behind the higher copper prices.
 CRUDE
The HSBC data for March showed a drop to 48.1, compared to a forecast of 48.7 expected and to a final of 48.5 for the previous month. A figure below 50 implies contraction with the the latest number part of a string of disappointing China data suggesting a deepening economic slowdown at the start of 2014. “The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI reading for March suggests that China’s growth momentum continued to slow down. Weakness is broadly based with domestic demand softening further,” said HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.
“We expect Beijing to launch a series of policy measures to stabilize growth. Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways, air cleaning and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower.” On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $99.20 a barrel Crude Oil, down 0.26%. Crude oil settled 0.57% higher, or 56 cents, at $99.46 a barrel, last week on speculation over the fallout from the Ukraine crisis and amid indications the U.S. economy is improving. Investors continued to monitor events in the Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have underpinned prices. The political standoff between the West and Russia following the annexation of Crimea escalated after the U.S. imposed harsher sanctions on Moscow. The European Union also agreed to wider sanctions against Russia. Crude oil prices stayed weaker in Asia on Monday after the China HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index for March unexpectedly fell, placing demand doubts in the market about the world’s second largest crude oil importer. 
Technical Levels
SUPPORT 1
SUPPORT 2
RESISTANCE 1
RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1320
1313
1343
1350
SILVER 20.14
20.00
20.42
20.64
COPPER
2.9696
2.9186
3.0206
3.0473
CRUDE
98.39
97.32
100.39
101.32
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7.15P.M Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.1 56.6 MEDIUM

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source Markit(latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release Apr 24, 2014
FF Notes Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar – early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Flash release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in May 2012;
Why Traders
Care
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy;
Derived Via Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI);
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Weekly Technical view on STI
This was the week in which only green candle was formed by STI as there was not a major change in the trading range of STI it opened at 3071 and made a high of 3101 where gave the closing at the same level as it was for the last week candle @3073.
Long Legged Doji was formed by this week candle. As it has long upper & lower shadow with Doji as the shorter trading range in the middle
Weekly wrap of STI:

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN 3071.87
HIGH 3101.86
LOW 3053.59
CLOSE 3073.39
CHANGE (In Points) 0.33
% CHANGE 0.010
Macroeconomic factors:
  • A good jump in the Trade Confidence Index as it’s the highest in two years at 115 i.e. 10 points. Announced by the HSBC
  • Home price inflation in China slowed in Feb also as it’s the continuous second month where average for new home price rose 8.7% for the 70 major cities in China. If calculated for MOM basis price rose 0.3% for Feb.
  • Statement issued by the Finance Ministry of Singapore on Tuesday said (SMEs) small medium enterprises will receive almost Q3 of sum disbursed, which calculated over 74000 employers will be receiving around S$800 Million by wage credit scheme, pay outs by March 31.
  • SGX is about to revise the fee structure which will be applicable from 2nd May 2014 as to make the trading more cost effective the clearing fee would be reduced by one fifth from 0.04% to 0.325% of contract value.
  • Economists forecasted 3.8% of Growth lower than expected as 3.9%
Market Forecast for week ahead:
  • As the performance of the STI was in a very range bound for this week and closing for the week was as the same for the last week. STI formed the Long Legged Doji candle for this week.
  • Studding Bollinger bands chart pattern it’s very clear that the market is in a very range bound conditions as its not able to maintain itself above 3100 and closed at 3073.
  • Technically STI can fall for multiple support and it would be possible by the global economic factor & market sentiment to sustain above the mark of 3100.
Technical Indicators:
MACD is moving below the base and performing flat where RSI is at 44.51 CCI is also going down and is @ -52
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3
3040 3000 2955 3130 3170 3210
Weekly wrap of KLCI:
KLCI closed Positive this week as it makes the green candle for this week after the red weekly candle.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern formed in this week, as Green candle formed for this week was followed by the red candle of the last week where the open & close for this week was formed in the range of the last week candle.
 
Weekly Technical view on KLCI
KLCI WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN 1806.15
HIGH 1821.88
LOW 1802.88
CLOSE 1820.48
CHANGE (In Points) 15.36
% CHANGE 0.850
Market Forecast for week ahead:
  • KLCI took the up move for this week after the two continuous down trend for two weeks 
  • The 50 days EMA’ is trading at 1778 where 20 days EMA is at 1814.
  • For the coming week the KLCI can take a upside movement but on the envelope channel indicator it seems consolidate in the range of 1790 to 1835
Technical Indicators:
The RSI is moving exactly above the base line at 53.92 else CCI is performing at -21
Support 1 Support 2 Support 3 Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Resistance 3
1805 1795 1780 1835 1850 1870

GOLD
Gold spiked overnight as investors awaited news on possible sanctions against Russia after Crimea voted to leave the Ukraine. The move however was short lived and the metal quickly retreated to open virtually unchanged at 1377.50/1378.50. Sideways trade throughout the day until selling interest emerged as the dollar started to recovered, taking the metal to a low of 1369.25/1370.25 prior to concluding the session at 1372.00/1373.00.
Gold had a bearish day today, making a new intraday high but then closing lower at 1372; a potential reversal warning. RSI is showing bearish divergence, having failed to make a new high on the new price high. While the longer-term uptrend still looks healthy, gold may face a test of the uptrend support which currently comes in at 1339. There should also be support from the top of the previous range, at 1355. Resistance is at the intraday high in the 1383 area.
Gold prices fell as a sharp rally in U.S. equities triggered profit-taking after bullion briefly rose in last some sessions.
Investors’ appetite for risk diminished in view of increasing political tensions and economic troubles, which benefit gold.
SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.81 tonnes i.e. 0.47% to 812.78 tonnes from 816.59 tonnes.
SILVER
Silver moved higher and later retreated alongside gold overnight to open at 21.23/21.28. It quickly touched a low of 21.20/21.25 before proceeding to an intraday high of 21.40/21.45. The metal concluded the session at 21.24/21.29.
Silver closed lower today at 21.24. The metal has struggled to break out of its sideways range. Support is at the recent low of 20.61, with resistance at Friday’s high of 21.79. We remain neutral.
Silver dropped tracking weak gold prices after Crimea voted to join Russia and leave Ukraine on Sunday with no widespread violence
Fed will most likely to announce another $10 billion cut to its bond-buying stimulus after solid U.S. retail sales and employment data
Investors remained cautious after Russia launched new military exercises near its border with Ukraine, showing no sign of backing down on plans to annex Crimea.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.922 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.946 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.15%, or $0.004 cents.The May copper contract rose 0.94%, or 0.275 cents to settle at $2.950 a pound on Friday.Futures were likely to find support at $2.912 a pound, the low from March 14 and resistance at $2.977 a pound, the high from March 13.
Results showed that nearly 97% of voters in Crimea chose to break away from Ukraine and join Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the European Union and the U.S.
Russia’s lower house of parliament has stated that it will pass legislation allowing Crimea to join the nation in the “very near future.”
U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington rejected the results of the referendum and warned that the U.S. was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow.
Western countries have threatened to ratchet up sanctions against Russia if it does not back down on annexing Crimea.
Copper has been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as growing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.
The industrial metal fell to $2.908 a pound on March 12, the lowest since July 2010.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery was flat to trade at $1,378.90 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery shed 0.15% to trade at $21.38 an ounce.
Market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.
Copper prices edged lower on Monday, as concerns escalated over Ukraine after results of Sunday’s referendum showed voters in Crimea voting to join Russia..
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in May traded at $97.56 a barrel, down 0.07%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.01 a barrel and a high of $98.91 a barrel.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.97, or 1.8%, to $106.24 a barrel on Monday, its lowest settlement price since Feb. 4.
Investors continued to monitor events in Europe, after over 90% of Crimean voters on Sunday chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea’s Parliament on Monday formally asked to join the Russian Federation.
Sanctions followed as expected.
European Union foreign ministers imposed travel bans and asset freezes on 21 people they have linked to the push to have Crimea secede from Ukraine to be annexed by Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama also imposed sanctions on several Russian officials involved in the incursion of Crimea, which included freezing assets in the U.S.
Still, markets were expecting more widespread action from the West, and the response enticed investors away from oil by allaying fears the conflict could escalate and threaten energy supply from Russia.
Investors took hit-or-miss U.S. economic indicators in stride.
Data revealed earlier that U.S. industrial production rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain. Industrial production in January was revised to a 0.2% fall from a previously estimated 0.3% decline.
Crude price were slightly weaker in Asian trade on Tuesday as relatively tame sanctions from the West on Russia, the world’s top oil producer, over the annexation of the Crimean region of the Ukraine allayed concerns of any abrupt cutoff in supplies.
Technical Levels

SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1368 1358 1388 1398
SILVER 21.13 20.89 21.64 21.91
COPPER 2.9865 2.9600 3.0300 3.0470
CRUDE 98.20 97.50 99.42 100.64
Global Economic Data
TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
6.00P.M Building Permits 0.94M 0.97M STRONG
6.00P.M Core CPI m/m 0.1% 0.1% STRONG
6.00P.M Housing Starts 0.88M 0.92M MEDIUM
6.30P.M TIC Long-Term Purchases -45.9B 23.4B MEDIUM
Building Permits
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why TradersCare It’s an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called Residential Building Permits;
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Core CPI m/m
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 15, 2014
FF Notes Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data – so do traders;
Why TradersCare Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
Housing Starts
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction;
Why TradersCare It’s a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;

GOLD
Gold advanced overnight to open at the intraday low of 1360.50/1361.50 following the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. It surged to a high of 1370.50/1371.50 on dollar weakness as yields on 10- year U.S. Treasuries gave back some of last week’s gains. The metal finally closed the day at 1369.50/1370.50.
Gold broke out of its range of the past two weeks, taking out resistance just below 1360, and closing higher at 1370. RSI has turned back to test the 70 level, confirming the bullish move. The next resistance is at 1374, the 76.4% retracement of the move from 1433 to 1182. We are bullish so long as we hold the recent lows in the 1326/27 area.
SILVER
Silver opened the day only slightly higher at 20.98/21.03. Copper sold off to a three-and-a-half year low on worries about credit troubles in China, which can potentially lead to an oversupply of the metal. This tempered silver’s strength and saw the metal dip to a low of 20.93/20.98 before recovering to a high of 21.39/21.44 on the back of gold. It closed the session at 21.33/21.38.
Silver also closed higher at 21.38. There is a daily downtrend in place since the high on Feb 24th. While it is still possible that the formation since silver’s breakout is a bullish flag, the flag retraced a considerable part of the breakout, which is not ideal. Also there is a pattern of declining RSI. We are currently neutral until silver can make a break out of its current downtrend. Support is at the recent low of 20.61.
The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at 64.11. Uptrend support comes in at 62.58. Resistance is at the 2014 high of 65.37
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery tumbled to a session low of $2.908 a pound, the weakest level since July 2010.
Copper last traded at $2.917 a pound during European morning hours, down 1.2%, or $0.035 cents. The May copper contract lost 2.62%, or $0.079 cents, on Tuesday to settle at $2.952 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $2.844 a pound, the low from July 2010 and resistance at $3.057 a pound, the high from March 11.
Investors remained cautious after data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports fell 18.1% on a year-over-year basis in February, confounding expectations for a 6.8% increase, following a rise of 10.6% in January.
The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.
The downbeat data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world’s biggest consumer of the industrial metal.
Copper prices plunged to the lowest level since July 2010 on Wednesday, amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $98.14 a barrel, up 0.15%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.57 a barrel and a high of $99.63 a barrel.
Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled down 0.5%, at $108.02 a barrel on Wednesday.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels in the week ended March 7, well above market expectations for a 2.2-million barrel increase.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 370 million barrels as of last week.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.2 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a drop of 2 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 533,000 barrels, below expectations for a withdrawal of 867,000 barrels.
Oil prices came under additional pressure on reports that the U.S. plans to release up to 5 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, according to a government source.
Crude oil prices gained in early Asian trade on Thursday, shrugging off bearish data overnight that revealed U.S. stockpiles shot up last week and sent the near-term contract to a one-month low, with the focus now on data from China on industrial output and retail sales.
Technical Levels

  SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1353 1336 1379 1388
SILVER 21.07 20.68 21.45 21.83
COPPER 2.9923 2.9586 3.0533 3.1183
CRUDE 97.16 96.33 99.21 101.26

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
6.00P.M Core Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 0.2% STRONG
6.00P.M Retail Sales m/m -0.4% 0.3% STRONG
6.00P.M Unemployment Claims 323K 334K STRONG

Core Retail Sales m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends;
Also Called Retail Sales Ex Autos;

Retail Sales m/m

Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 14, 2014
FF Notes This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data;
Why Traders
Care
It’s the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called Advance Retail Sales;

Unemployment Claims

Source Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders
Care
Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Market Review:
Today the STI gave a gap down opening by 16 points 3113.41 with the volume of 135.6Million. Today complete red candle was formed for the day with a gap down from the previous day candle and made a Star Position.
Further STI made the Marubozu Pattern that shows the open is close to the high & the close is near to the low of the day.

STI Day Performance

Open 3113.41
High 3115.21
Low 3097.43
Close 3097.43
Change(Points) -29.7
% Change -0.949
Volume 1897.4M
Rise 166
Fall 236
Unch 656

Market forecast:
As STI formed inverted hammer yesterday , on the back of this STI opens with gap down and traded lower side whole day and formed bearish candlestick pattern.
Today STI gives a signal to bearish cross over between  its 50 & 20 day EMAs here 20 day EMA level now flat @ 3099.02 and 50 day EMA @ 3096,  flat  direction of shorter period EMA could be reverse and will give bearish cross over if STI will continue the same bearish.
Support level:
STI having immediate support @ 3120 level and below this level it can take support @3105-3090 will be the support zone for STI.
Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3135 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3145-3160

STRAITS TIME LEVELS

Support 1

3120

Support 2

3105

Support 3

3090

Resistance 1

3135

Resistance 2

3145

Resistance 3

3160

Technical indicators:
With the recovery now Technical indicators MACD trading in bullish zone in Daily chart , RSI trading above @50.77 near to centreline and CCI crossed its +100 mark @ 24.41
Important Factor for today:-

  • SGX announced today that it is coming with the new set of Asian currency futures to expand its suite of foreign exchange future (FX) & launching options on china A50 futures, as this will be available in the 3Q 2014
  • Singapore largest retail warehouse store Big Box is set to open its doors in the 4Q2014
  • A good boom is expected for this FY in Offshore RMB bond issuance by a strong policy support, continued cash crunch in the mainland and a huge amount of refinancing expected this year.

Top 5 Gainers

Top 5 Losers

Scrip Name CMP %change Scrip Name CMP %change
DairyFarm 900 9.370 2.741

JMH 400US

59.040

-1.600

Creative 50 2.550 2.823

JSH 500US

33.600

-2.665

Goodpack 2.010 3.608

UOB

20.040

-2.053

SATS 3.060 2.000

Jardine C&C

39.110

-1.012

ManhattanRes 0.505 12.222

SIA

10.200

-1.923

GOLD
Gold edged marginally higher overnight to open at 1339.50/1340.50. It dropped to a low of 1335.50/1336.50 as the U.S. Employment Trends Index (ETI) beat forecasts to move higher indicating that the Fed will continue trimming its monthly asset purchase program. The metal then surged to a high of 1344.25/1345.25 following news that Russian troops opened fire while taking s iege of a Ukrainian military post in Crimea and concerns over Chinese trade data that showed a fall in exports. It consolidated later in the afternoon to finally close at 1341.00/1342.00.
Gold was unchanged today, closing at 1341. Trading for the past two weeks has been in a sideways range, characterized by a lack of momentum. Gold is now getting close to testing an uptrend line which comes in around 1324. We remain bullish so long as the low of 1307 holds. Resistance is at the top of the range in the 1354 area.
Gold recovered to settled flat as investors continued to monitor events in Ukraine, where tension over moves by neighboring Russia in the Crimean region have heightened demand.
Precious metals were lower earlier as expectations that Fed will continue to gradually reduce the pace of its stimulus program weighed.
SPDR gold trust holding gained by 7.50 tonnes i.e. 0.93% to 812.70 tonnes from 805.20 tonnes.
SILVER
Silver moved higher overnight to open at 20.98/21.03, which was also the session high. It dropped to a low of 20.80/20.85 prior to concluding the session at 20.88/20.93.
Silver closed lower today at 20.88. The metal has now retraced a good part of its gains from its breakout on February 14th. While the breakout was very strong with good momentum behind it initially, RSI has now fallen from a high of 76.76 to present levels at 47.75. If silver falls back into its previous range, with resistance in the 20.60’s, it will be bearish for the metal. We are currently neutral.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 64.36. Support from the uptrend comes in at 62.50. Resistance is at the most recent major high of 65.37.
Silver seen under pressure after strong U.S. jobs data eased worries of an economic slowdown and dimmed the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Market players will be anticipating what will be closely-watched U.S. data on retail sales and consumer sentiment later in the week for further indications of the strength of the economy
The gold/silver ratio hit a fresh five-week high at 64.4 as silver underperformed on Monday.
COPPER
Copper settled down -1.77% recovered from the day’s low on speculation China’s government is taking steps to soothe nerves jangled by a poor trade report that inflamed fears of flagging growth in the world’s top user of metals.
Adding to the downward pressure, China’s exports unexpectedly tumbled in February, swinging the trade balance into deficit and adding to fears of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, even though the Lunar New Year holidays were blamed for the slide.
A further hit came from China’s imports of unwrought copper, which fell 30 percent in February from January due to weak Shanghai copper prices. Imports were still up 27 percent from last year’s levels, however. China is the world’s top user of copper, accounting for 40 percent of global demand. But much of its imports are used as collateral to raise funds, which are then loaned out in China’s shadow banking sector.
Worries that these financing deals could unravel have intensified since China recorded its first domestic bond default on Friday, when loss-making solar equipment producer Chaori Solar missed an interest payment. Elsewhere, U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in February despite the icy weather that gripped much of the nation, easing fears of an abrupt economic slowdown and keeping the Fed on track to continue reducing its monetary stimulus.
CRUDE
Crude oil settled down -2.01% after poor Chinese trade figures spooked investors with fears emerging-market economies are cooling and will consume less fuel and energy.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase. According to customs data, China’s February crude oil imports totaled 23.05mmt, down 18.1% from January.
The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. The data added to fears over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, and overshadowed last Friday’s stronger-than-forecast U.S. jobs report for February. Pressure is mounting as expectations of an increase in stockpiles in the world’s biggest oil consumer as cold weather ebbed, reducing demand for heating fuels.
The survey, taken ahead of weekly inventory reports from the API and from the U.S. Department of Energy’s EIA, showed crude stocks climbed 2.2mbls on average for the week to March 7. Also the US will signal its resolve to protect its NATO allies near Russia’s borders on Tuesday with the start of the first joint military training exercises in the region since the Kremlin intervened in Ukraine. A tanker that loaded oil from a rebel-held port in eastern Libya has been halted by government forces but it has not yet reached a port controlled by government forces…
Technical Levels

  SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1331 1320 1348 1355
SILVER 20.69 20.50 21.07 21.26
COPPER 3.0823 3.0541 3.1458 3.1811
CRUDE 100.37 98.40 102.30 103.56

Commodity Contract- S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7.30P.M JOLTS Job Openings 3.99M 4.02M STRONG

JOLTS Job Openings

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 8, 2014
FF Notes It’s released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);

GOLD
Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1351.00/1352.00. It moved to a high of 1351.25/1352.25 before declining quickly to a low of 1326.50/1327.50 alongside crude futures as the dollar strengthened while U.S. 10-Year Treasury prices fell sharply following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that supports further tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Thereafter, the metal recovered and traded within range to close the day at 1337.50/1338.50.
Gold closed higher this week at 1338, the fifth straight up-week (though last week was essentially unchanged). However, we were unable to close substantially through the resistance level at 1337.83, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013. Nevertheless, the uptrend is gaining momentum, with RSI (weekly) currently at 56.87. There is strong support from 1301 to 1308, which represents two 50% Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50% retracement of the long- last downtrend. After 1338, the next resistance level is 1361, the swing high from November 2013.
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at the session high of 21.38/21.43. It followed gold to a low of 20.74/20.79, prior to concluding the session at 20.89/20.94, which is close to the 100day moving average of 20.92.
Silver closed at 20.89, the second lower close in a row. There is a strong downtrend off the 2011 high that is acting as resistance; this currently comes in at 22.14. Support comes in at the bottom of the 2014 range at 19.00. Silver remains trapped within a sideways trend and we are currently neutral.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at the current 64.03 level. Support from the uptrend comes in at 61.54. We are bullish the ratio so long as the previous low at 59.92 holds, targeting a retracement back to the 2013 high of 67.47.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $3.231 a pound, the most since February 26.
Copper prices last traded at $3.222 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.25%.
The May copper contract rallied 1.34% on Tuesday to settle at $3.214 a pound, as investor demand for riskier assets improved amid easing tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.166 a pound, the low from March 4 and resistance at $3.239 a pound, the high from February 26.
China has set its gross domestic product growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, as widely expected, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5%, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday.
The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Keqiang, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country’s economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April US$102.37 a barrel, down 0.20%.
NYMEX crude for April settled up 1%, or $1.02 a barrel, to end Friday at $102.58 a barrel, falling $0.01 cent on the week.
Last week, an upbeat jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. economic data seen in the past few months and underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to gradually taper its bond-buying program.
Gains were limited as concerns over Chinese domestic bond defaults underlined worries over the health of the Asian nation’s economy.
Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase.
Imports rose 10.1%, compared to forecasts for an 8% increase. According to customs data, China’s February crude oil imports totaled 23.05 million metric tons, down 18.1% from January.
The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.
A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 2% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while producer price inflation declined 2%, compared to forecasts for a 1.9% drop.
The disappointing data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world’s second biggest oil consumer.
In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.
Crude oil prices eased in early Asian trade Monday, but remain supported by events in the Ukraine where tension over moves by neighboring Russia, the world’s top oil producer, in the Crimean region have heightened concerns over supply..
Technical Levels

  SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2
GOLD 1325 1312 1352 1365
SILVER 20.59 20.28 21.37 21.84
COPPER 3.1115 3.0665 3.2365 3.3165
CRUDE 101.79 100.45 103.13 103.69

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data

TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
4.45P.M FOMC Member Plosser Speaks     MEDIUM

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Description Due to participate in a panel discussion titled “Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism” at the Bank of France, in Paris;
Source Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Speaker Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes FOMC voting member 2008, 2011, and 2014;
Why Traders
Care
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);